We revise the direct radiative effect (DRE) of mineral dust aerosols in the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) based on global model simulations that include coarse dust particles (>20 μm) and a new LW ...complex refractive index data set representative of major global sources. Simulations are constrained against observed dust size distributions and optical depth. Scattering of LW radiation is accounted for in the analysis. The extension of the dust size beyond 20 μm causes a reduction in the SW DRE compared to current model estimates, while the LW DRE remains within published values due to compensating effects between changing size distribution, complex refractive index, and accounting for dust scattering. The dust direct radiative effect efficiency from model simulations reproduces well field observations close to sources and after transport. The global mean net effect of dust is −0.03 Wm−2 as a result of cooling over oceans and warming over land.
Key Points
New global dust simulations including particles >20 μm, refractive index representative of world sources, and longwave scattering correction
The global dust longwave effect remains within published values while the shortwave one is reduced due to the inclusion of coarse particles
Varying the longwave refractive index within its documented range of variability modifies the sign of the net global dust direct effect
Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's ...radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m−2, or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.
Plain Language Summary
Human activities emit into the atmosphere small liquid and solid particles called aerosols. Those aerosols change the energy budget of the Earth and trigger climate changes, by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and playing important roles in the formation of cloud droplets and ice crystals. But because aerosols are much more varied in their chemical composition and much more heterogeneous in their spatial and temporal distributions than greenhouse gases, their perturbation to the energy budget, called radiative forcing, is much more uncertain. This review uses traceable and arguable lines of evidence, supported by aerosol studies published over the past 40 years, to quantify that uncertainty. It finds that there are two chances out of three that aerosols from human activities have increased scattering and absorption of solar radiation by 14% to 29% and cloud droplet number concentration by 5 to 17% in the period 2005–2015 compared to the year 1850. Those increases exert a radiative forcing that offsets between a fifth and a half of the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. The degree to which human activities affect natural aerosol levels, and the response of clouds, and especially ice clouds, to aerosol perturbations remain particularly uncertain.
Key Points
An assessment of multiple lines of evidence supported by a conceptual model provides ranges for aerosol radiative forcing of climate change
Aerosol effective radiative forcing is assessed to be between ‐1.6 and ‐0.6 W m−2 at the 16–84% confidence level
Although key uncertainties remain, new ways of using observations provide stronger constraints for models
Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are ...responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.
Plain Language Summary
Long‐term global warming can be estimated with knowledge of how climate forcing agents affect the Earth's top‐of‐atmosphere energy imbalance or effective radiative forcing. Changes in climate forcers, such as greenhouse gases, the Sun's intensity, or emission of aerosol particles, typically impose a direct change in the energy budget, termed an instantaneous radiative forcing. Further to this, a climate forcer may induce changes in the atmosphere, such as a change in thermal structure, clouds, or humidity. These changes themselves, termed rapid adjustments, contribute to the top‐of‐atmosphere energy budget. Together, the instantaneous radiative forcing plus rapid adjustments equals the effective radiative forcing. We show that for different climate forcing agents, the rapid adjustments behave very differently and are driven by different atmospheric mechanisms. For example, rapid adjustments add to the instantaneous forcing for a carbon dioxide increase, due to a cooling of the stratosphere, but oppose instantaneous forcing for black carbon, driven by a warming troposphere and lowering of cloud height. Understanding rapid adjustments gives a more complete picture of the climate effects of different climate forcers.
Key Points
Rapid adjustments affect the Earth's energy balance in different ways for greenhouse gas, aerosol, and solar forcing
Radiative kernels and partial radiative perturbations are used to diagnose rapid adjustments from atmospheric and cloud changes
Noncloud adjustments agree well between models, whereas cloud adjustments exhibit more spread
Drivers of Precipitation Change Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T. ...
Journal of climate,
12/2018, Letnik:
31, Številka:
23
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing ...agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.
The third Canadian Arctic Human Health Assessment conducted under the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program (NCP), in association with the circumpolar Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme ...(AMAP), addresses concerns about possible adverse health effects in individuals exposed to environmental contaminants through a diet containing country foods. The objectives here are to: 1) provide data on changes in human contaminant concentrations and exposure among Canadian Arctic peoples; 2) identify new contaminants of concern; 3) discuss possible health effects; 4) outline risk communication about contaminants in country food; and 5) identify knowledge gaps for future contaminant research and monitoring. The nutritional and cultural benefits of country foods are substantial; however, some dietary studies suggest declines in the amount of country foods being consumed. Significant declines were found for most contaminants in maternal blood over the last 10
years within all three Arctic regions studied. Inuit continue to have the highest levels of almost all persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and metals among the ethnic groups studied. A greater proportion of people in the East exceed Health Canada's guidelines for PCBs and mercury, although the proportion of mothers exceeding these guidelines has decreased since the previous assessment. Further monitoring and research are required to assess trends and health effects of emerging contaminants. Infant development studies have shown possible subtle effects of prenatal exposure to heavy metals and some POPs on immune system function and neurodevelopment. New data suggest important beneficial effects on brain development for Inuit infants from some country food nutrients. The most successful risk communication processes balance the risks and benefits of a diet of country food through input from a variety of regional experts and the community, to incorporate the many socio-cultural and economic factors to arrive at a risk management decision that will be the most beneficial in Arctic communities.
Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional ...effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulfate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalized by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.
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