Aim
Advances in ecological and environmental modelling offer new opportunities for estimating dynamic habitat suitability for highly mobile species and supporting management strategies at relevant ...spatiotemporal scales. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict daily, year‐round habitat suitability for a migratory species, the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), and demonstrate an application for evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of their exposure to ship strike risk.
Location
The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and the Southern California Bight (SCB), USA.
Methods
We integrated a long‐term (1994–2008) satellite tracking dataset on 104 blue whales with data‐assimilative ocean model output to assess year‐round habitat suitability. We evaluated the relative utility of ensembling multiple model types compared to using single models, and selected and validated candidate models using multiple cross‐validation metrics and independent observer data. We quantified the spatial and temporal distribution of exposure to ship strike risk within shipping lanes in the SCB.
Results
Multi‐model ensembles outperformed single‐model approaches. The final ensemble model had high predictive skill (AUC = 0.95), resulting in daily, year‐round predictions of blue whale habitat suitability in the CCE that accurately captured migratory behaviour. Risk exposure in shipping lanes was highly variable within and among years as a function of environmental conditions (e.g., marine heatwave).
Main conclusions
Daily information on three‐dimensional oceanic habitats was used to model the daily distribution of a highly migratory species with high predictive power and indicated that management strategies could benefit by incorporating dynamic environmental information. This approach is readily transferable to other species. Dynamic, high‐resolution species distribution models are valuable tools for assessing risk exposure and targeting management needs.
The purpose of this study was to assess the extent to which the association between premature dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) discontinuation and excess risk of thrombotic events varies according to ...the reason and timing of DAPT discontinuation and whether high on-treatment platelet reactivity (HPR) influences the risk of thrombotic events after premature DAPT discontinuation.
DAPT after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) suppresses platelet reactivity, and HPR on clopidogrel after PCI is associated with an increased risk of thrombotic events.
ADAPT-DES (Assessment of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy With Drug-Eluting Stents) was a prospective, multicenter registry of 8,582 patients successfully treated with coronary drug-eluting stents that assessed HPR on clopidogrel. For patients who discontinued aspirin or clopidogrel at any time during the study, the reasons for discontinuation were systematically categorized.
Planned DAPT discontinuation occurred within 2 years in 3,203 (37.3%) patients. One thousand four hundred eighteen (16.5%) patients discontinued DAPT for unplanned reasons, including surgery or trauma (n = 768 8.9%), patient nonadherence (n = 321 3.7%), bleeding complications (n = 264 3.1%), and drug allergy or hypersensitivity (n = 113 1.3%). Unplanned but not planned DAPT discontinuation was associated with an increased risk of a major adverse cardiac event (MACE, defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or stent thrombosis); with highest risk within 3 months after PCI (adjusted HR: 7.65, 95% CI: 2.77-21.10 vs adjusted HR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.70-3.58 for unplanned DAPT discontinuation ≥3 months after PCI). MACE risk after DAPT discontinuation was not moderated by HPR (Pinteraction = 0.91).
In this large-scale all-comers registry, premature DAPT discontinuation for unplanned reasons occurred in approximately 1 of 6 patients after DES implantation and was associated with a markedly increased risk of MACEs. (Assessment of Dual AntiPlatelet Therapy With Drug Eluting Stents ADAPT-DES; NCT00638794)
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Objectives The study sought to determine whether rapid access to medical care and reperfusion results in a better prognosis in patients with in-hospital compared with out-of-hospital stent thrombosis ...(ST) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the HORIZONS-AMI (Harmonizing Outcomes with Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction) trial. Background Whether the prognosis of in-hospital and out-of-hospital ST are similar is uncertain, with conflicting data reported from prior studies. Methods A total of 3,602 STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were randomized to bivalirudin (n = 1,800) versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) plus a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor (GPI) (UFH+GPI; n = 1,802). Stents were implanted in 3,202 patients, 156 (4.9%) of whom developed Academic Research Consortium definite/probable ST during 3-year follow-up. We investigated the 1-year clinical outcomes after ST in 54 patients with in-hospital ST compared with 102 patients with out-of-hospital ST. Results One year after the ST event, patients with in-hospital compared with out-of-hospital ST had significantly greater mortality (27.8% vs. 10.8%, p < 0.01); most deaths in both groups occurred within 1 week of the ST event. Patients with in-hospital ST also had higher rates of major bleeding (21.2% vs. 6.0%, p < 0.01), but a lower rate of myocardial infarction (56.6% vs. 77.5%, p < 0.01). Subgroup analysis within both in-hospital and out-of-hospital ST groups indicated that subacute ST had the highest mortality. By multivariable analysis, 1-year mortality was significantly increased in patients with in-hospital compared with out-of-hospital ST (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.98 to 10.77, p < 0.01). Additional correlates of increased mortality after an ST event included diabetes and randomization to UFH+GPI (vs. bivalirudin). Conclusions Following primary PCI for STEMI, more than one-third of all ST events during 3-year follow-up occurred during the index hospital phase. Mortality and major bleeding were significantly higher after in-hospital ST compared with out-of-hospital ST. (Harmonizing Outcomes With Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction; NCT00433966 )
Hypertension is associated with vascular and endothelial dysfunction that may result in a greater propensity for reactive platelets to cause thrombosis. We sought to assess whether the risk of major ...adverse cardiac events (MACE) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with on-clopidogrel residual high platelet reactivity (HPR) varies in patients with versus without hypertension. Assessment of dual antiplatelet therapy with drug eluting stents (ADAPT-DES) was a prospective, multicenter registry of patients successfully treated with coronary drug-eluting stents (DES). HPR was defined as P2Y12 reaction units (PRU) >208, as assessed by the VerifyNow point-of-care assay. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess whether the adjusted association between HPR and 2-year risk of MACE (cardiac death, myocardial infarction MI, or stent thrombosis) was different in patients with versus without hypertension. A total of 6833 of 8582 patients (79.6%) had a history of hypertension. Patients with compared with those without hypertension were older, more likely to have other cardiovascular risk factors, and had higher PRU (190.1 ± 97.3 vs 179.5 ± 94.3; p <0.0001). Patients with hypertension had significantly higher 2-year rates of MACE (7.0% vs 4.4%, p <0.001), all-cause death (4.2% vs 2.5%, p = 0.001), and MI (5.2% vs 3.2%, p <0.001), and had nominally higher rates of stent thrombosis (1.0% vs 0.5%, p = 0.059). A significant interaction was present between hypertension and HPR regarding 2-year MACE risk (adjusted hazard ratio for HPR vs no HPR 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.68 for patients with hypertension vs 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 1.33 for patients without hypertension, p = 0.046). In conclusion, following successful PCI with DES, 2-year MACE rates are increased in patients with both hypertension and residual HPR on clopidogrel. HPR had a greater effect on the risk of adverse events among patients with versus without hypertension.
Assessment of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy With Drug-Eluting Stents (ADAPT-DES) was a prospective, multicenter registry of 8,582 consecutive stable and unstable patients who underwent percutaneous ...coronary intervention using a drug-eluting stent. We sought to identify key morphologic features leading to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) versus non-STEMI (NSTEMI) or unstable angina pectoris (UA) versus stable coronary artery disease (CAD) presentation. In the prespecified grayscale and virtual histology (VH) substudy of ADAPT-DES, preintervention imaging identified 676 patients with a single culprit lesion. The relation between lesion morphology and clinical presentation was compared among patients with (1) STEMI, (2) NSTEMI or UA, and (3) stable CAD. Intravascular ultrasound identified more plaque rupture and VH thin-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) in STEMI lesions compared with NSTEMI/UA or stable CAD lesions; conversely, fibroatheromas appeared more often calcified with a thick fibrous cap in stable CAD. Minimum lumen cross-sectional area (MLA) was smaller with larger plaque burden and positive remodeling in STEMI lesions. Lesions with plaque rupture versus those without plaque rupture showed higher prevalence of VH-TCFA and larger plaque burden with positive remodeling, especially in patients with STEMI. Multivariate analysis showed that in the lesions with plaque rupture, plaque burden at the MLA site was the only independent predictor for STEMI (cutoff of plaque burden = 85%) and in lesions without plaque rupture, MLA was the only independent predictor for STEMI (cutoff of MLA = 2.3 mm2 ). In conclusion, culprit lesions causing STEMI have smaller lumen areas, greater plaque burden, and more plaque rupture or VH-TCFA compared with NSTEMI/UA or stable CAD; in lesions with plaque rupture, only plaque burden predicted STEMI, and in lesions without plaque rupture, only MLA area predicted STEMI.
Determinates of infarct size in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been incompletely characterized, in part because of the ...limited sample size of previous studies. Databases therefore were pooled from 4 contemporary trials of primary or rescue PCI (EMERALD, COOL-MI, AMIHOT, and ICE-IT), in which the primary end point was infarct size assessed using technetium-99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomographic imaging, measured at the same core laboratory. Of 1,355 patients, infarct size was determined using technetium-99m sestamibi imaging in 1,199 patients (88.5%), at a mean time of 23 ± 15 days. Median infarct size of the study population was 10% (interquartile range 0% to 23%; mean 14.9 ± 16.1%). Using multiple linear regression analysis of 18 variables, left anterior descending infarct artery, baseline Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade 0/1 flow, male gender, and prolonged door-to-balloon time were powerful independent predictors of infarct size (all p <0.0001). Other independent correlates of infarct size were final Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade <3 flow (p = 0.0001), previous AMI (p = 0.005), symptom-onset-to-door time (p = 0.021), and rescue angioplasty (p = 0.026). In conclusion, anterior infarction, time to reperfusion, epicardial infarct artery patency before and after reperfusion, male gender, previous AMI, and failed thrombolytic therapy were important predictors of infarct size after angioplasty in patients with AMI assessed using technetium-99m sestamibi imaging and should be considered when planning future trials of investigational drugs or devices designed to enhance myocardial recovery.
The clinical features and prognosis of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and no significant coronary artery disease (CAD) have not been well studied. We examined the ...outcomes of patients with STEMI in the Harmonizing Outcomes with Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction (HORIZONS-AMI) trial according to the presence or absence of significant CAD. “No-CAD” was defined by the absence of any lesion with a diameter stenosis of ≥30% on quantitative coronary angiography of the baseline coronary angiogram. Of 3,602 patients, 127 (3.5%) had no-CAD. Of these, 86 (67.7%) had angiographically normal coronary arteries, and 41 (32.3%) had mild disease (diameter stenosis <30%). Eight patients had previously been treated with coronary artery bypass grafting. Compared to patients with CAD, patients with no-CAD were younger, had a lower body mass index, were more frequently black, had a lower prevalence of smoking and previous angina, and had a greater left ventricular ejection fraction. Cardiac enzymes were elevated in fewer patients with no-CAD than in those with CAD (63.2% vs 98.7%, p <0.001). At 3 years of follow-up, the patients with no-CAD versus CAD had lower rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (7.7% vs 22.2%, p = 0.002), net adverse clinical events (major adverse cardiovascular events or major bleeding not related to coronary artery bypass grafting, 12.5% vs 26.9%, p = 0.005), and postprocedure coronary revascularization (0% vs 19.5%, p <0.001). The differences in the rates of death or reinfarction, stroke, and major bleeding were not statistically significant. In conclusion, 3.5% of patients with STEMI had no significant CAD. The 3-year prognosis for these patients was favorable compared to that of patients with STEMI and with obstructive CAD.
In this analysis of 2-year outcomes in the ADAPT-DES (Assessment of Dual AntiPlatelet Therapy with Drug-Eluting Stents) study, the authors sought to examine the independent associations between ...platelet reactivity to both aspirin and clopidogrel and subsequent outcomes.
The relationship between platelet reactivity and long-term adverse events following implantation of drug-eluting stents (DES) has been incompletely characterized.
The ADAPT-DES study was a multicenter registry of patients undergoing routine platelet function testing following percutaneous coronary intervention with DES. The primary study endpoint was definite or probable stent thrombosis (ST); other endpoints were all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and clinically relevant bleeding.
A total of 8,582 patients were enrolled between 2008 and 2010; 46.3% of patients were on dual antiplatelet therapy at 2 years without discontinuation. At 2 years, definite or probable ST occurred in 92 patients (1.07%). In patients treated with dual antiplatelet therapy continuously for 2 years, high platelet reactivity on clopidogrel was independently associated with definite or probable ST (adjusted hazard ratio HR: 2.16; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.27 to 3.67; p = 0.003), myocardial infarction (adjusted HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.74; p = 0.02), freedom from clinically relevant bleeding (adjusted HR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.90; p = 0.002), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.85; p = 0.04). Between years 1 and 2, high platelet reactivity was not associated with the very late ST and in patients on aspirin monotherapy, aspirin hyporesponsiveness was not associated with adverse outcomes.
The present study confirms the strong relationship of high platelet reactivity on clopidogrel to 2-year ischemic and bleeding outcomes after DES. The majority of stent-related events occurred within the first year.
Objectives We hypothesized that patients most likely to benefit would be those at high risk with a shorter duration of acute ischemia and who required transfer for percutaneous coronary intervention ...(PCI). Background The FINESSE (Facilitated Intervention with Enhanced Reperfusion Speed to Stop Events) study failed to demonstrate an improvement in the 90-day composite clinical end point of early treatment with abciximab plus half-dose reteplase (combination-facilitated PCI) or abciximab alone. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 2,452 patients in this double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Patients were stratified by Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), presentation to a spoke (no PCI available) or hub site, and symptom-to-randomization time. Outcomes included the primary composite end point of death, ventricular fibrillation after 48 h, cardiogenic shock, and congestive heart failure through day 90 as well as 1-year mortality. Results Mortality for all patients at 1 year was directly related to TIMI risk score (23 of 1,223 = 1.9% in patients with score <3 and 145 of 1,229 = 11.8% with score ≥3, p < 0.001). Patients with TIMI risk score ≥3 and presentation to a spoke site with a symptom-to-randomization time ≤4 h had significantly better 1-year survival if treated with combination-facilitated PCI (hazard ratio HR: 0.351, p = 0.01) as well as 90-day composite outcome (HR: 0.45, p = 0.009). A trend for improved survival was also observed in patients with TIMI score ≥3 and spoke site alone (HR: 0.549, p = 0.06). Conclusions Facilitation of PCI with a combination of abciximab and half-dose reteplase improved survival at 1 year in high-risk patients presenting to a spoke hospital with symptom-to-randomization time ≤4 h. Further prospective study of facilitated PCI in this subgroup of patients is warranted.
Abstract Background Few studies have examined the association between hyperglycemia and adverse outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary ...percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We therefore evaluated the prognostic utility of admission hyperglycemia in the HORIZONS-AMI trial. Methods and results Admission glucose levels were available in 3405 of 3602 (94.5%) enrolled patients, of which 566 patients (16.6%) were known to have diabetes. Outcomes were assessed at 30 days and 3 years, stratified by baseline glucose level and diabetes status. Median IQR admission glucose level in the entire study cohort was 138.0 115.4, 171.0 mg/dl. Multivariable adjusted 30-day mortality was significantly increased in all patients with admission glucose in the highest glucose tertile vs. the lower two-thirds (HR 95%CI = 3.53 1.89, 6.60, p < 0.0001); in patients with diabetes (4.40 2.04, 9.50, p = 0.0002); and in patients without diabetes (3.33 1.16, 9.55, p = 0.03). By ROC analysis, the best cut-off values for 30-day mortality were 169 mg/dl for all patients (AUC = 0.76), 149 mg/dl for patients without diabetes (AUC = 0.77), and 231 mg/dl for patients with diabetes (AUC = 0.69). Baseline hyperglycemia was also an independent predictor of 3-year mortality in all patients (HR 95%CI = 1.93 1.35, 2.76, P = 0.0003), patients with diabetes (2.65 1.28, 5.47, P = 0.008), and patients without diabetes (1.58 1.05, 2.36, P = 0.03). Conclusions In patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI, admission hyperglycemia is an independent predictor of early and late mortality in both patients with and without known diabetes.
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