Continental deformation is known to be controlled by the interplay between tectonic and gravitational forces modulated by thermal relaxation-controlled lithospheric strength leading to oscillations ...around an equilibrium state, or to runaway extension. Using data-driven thermomechanical modelling of the Alpine Himalayan Collision Zone, we demonstrate how deviations from an equilibrium between mantle dynamics, plate-boundary forces, and the thermochemical configuration of the lithosphere control continental deformation. We quantify such balance between the internal energy of the plate and tectonic forces in terms of a critical crustal thickness, that match the global average of present-day continental crust. It follows that thicker intraplate domains than the critical crust (orogens) must undergo weakening due to their increased internal energy, and, in doing so, they dissipate the acquired energy within a diffused zone of deformation, unlike the localized deformation seen along plate boundaries. This evolution is controlled by a dissipative thermodynamic feedback loop between thermal and mechanical relaxation of the driving energy in the orogenic lithosphere. Exponentially growing energy states, leading to runaway extension are efficiently dampened by enhanced dissipation from radioactive heat sources. This ultimately drives orogens with their thickened radiogenic crust towards a final equilibrium state. Our results suggest a genetic link between the thermochemical state of the crust and the tectonic evolution of silicate Earth-like planets.
Quantitative predictions of the physical state of the Earth's subsurface are routinely based on numerical solutions of complex coupled partial differential equations together with estimates of the ...uncertainties in the material parameters. The resulting high-dimensional problems are computationally prohibitive even for state-of-the-art solver solutions. In this study, we introduce a hybrid physics-based machine learning technique, the non-intrusive reduced basis method, to construct reliable, scalable, and interpretable surrogate models. Our approach, to combine physical process models with data-driven machine learning techniques, allows us to overcome limitations specific to each individual component, and it enables us to carry out probabilistic analyses, such as global sensitivity studies and uncertainty quantification for real-case non-linearly coupled physical problems. It additionally provides orders of magnitude computational gain, while maintaining an accuracy higher than measurement errors. Although in this study we use a thermo-hydro-mechanical reservoir application to illustrate these features, all the theory described is equally valid and applicable to a wider range of geoscientific applications.
Despite the amount of research focussed on the Alpine orogen, different hypotheses still exist regarding varying spatial seismicity distribution patterns throughout the region. Previous ...measurement-constrained regional 3D models of lithospheric density distribution and thermal field facilitate the generation of a data-based rheological model of the region. In this study, we compute the long-term lithospheric strength and compare its spatial variation to observed seismicity patterns. We demonstrate how strength maxima within the crust (~ 1 GPa) and upper mantle (> 2 GPa) occur at temperatures characteristic of the onset of crystal plasticity in those rocks (crust: 200–400 °C; mantle: ~ 600 °C), with almost all seismicity occurring in these regions. Correlation in the northern and southern forelands between crustal and lithospheric strengths and seismicity show different patterns of event distribution, reflecting their different tectonic settings. Seismicity in the plate boundary setting of the southern foreland corresponds to the integrated lithospheric strength, occurring mainly in the weaker domains surrounding the strong Adriatic plate. In the intraplate setting of the northern foreland, seismicity correlates to modelled crustal strength, and it mainly occurs in the weaker and warmer crust beneath the Upper Rhine Graben. We, therefore, suggest that seismicity in the upper crust is linked to weak crustal domains, which are more prone to localise deformation promoting failure and, depending on the local properties of the fault, earthquakes at relatively lower levels of accumulated stress than their neighbouring stronger counterparts. Upper mantle seismicity at depths greater than modelled brittle conditions, can be either explained by embrittlement of the mantle due to grain-size sensitive deformation within domains of active or recent slab cooling, or by dissipative weakening mechanisms, such as thermal runaway from shear heating and/or dehydration reactions within an overly ductile mantle. Results generated in this study are available for open access use to further discussions on the region.
Observations of the mechanical behavior of porous rocks subject to external loading indicate the existence of complex dependencies on the level of confining pressure, fluid pressure and rate of ...deformation. Due to the heterogeneous nature of porous rocks, their macroscopic response is the result of underlying microscopic processes which can alter the microstructural organization of the grain–pore network. The impacts of the multiscale and poromechanical behavior of geomaterials are relevant for a number of applications ranging from civil engineering, reservoir engineering, geological and geodynamic. The use of thermodynamic-consistent approaches to construct constitutive laws which span a large range of time scales is particularly relevant in this context. In this two-part contribution, we present extensions of the thermomechanics theory to account for the poromechanics of path- and rate-dependent critical state line models and we cover the relevance of this thermodynamic-consistent model for civil engineering, geological and geodynamic applications. In this second paper, we extend the thermomechanics theory to account for the poromechanics of geomaterials in agreement with the theory of poroelasticity and considering in addition dissipative inelastic processes. We illustrate using experimental data how the thermodynamic-consistent model derived can account for the macroscopic mechanical and porous responses in triaxial loading experiments. We particularly focus on the transition from dilation to compression regime with confining pressure and the resulting localization styles ranging from shear dilation to compaction bands.
We investigate the impact of closing a fracture with rough surfaces on the fracture hydraulic diffusivity, which controls the spatiotemporal evolution of pore-pressure perturbations in geological ...formations, particularly those composed of an impermeable matrix and highly permeable natural fractures. We build distributions of synthetic fracture apertures at a reservoir scale (
∼
500 m) from a self-affine model with isotropic Hurst exponents derived from field observations of fault surfaces. To quantify the hydraulic diffusivity of rough fractures, we conduct finite element simulations of transient fluid flow in a single fracture. We use a surface representation of the fracture aperture following the Reynolds lubrication approximation. We verify that our approximation is valid for a steady-state flow and a low Reynolds number (Re
≪
1) from the comparison with a volume-represented fracture aperture model solved by the Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible fluids (INS). Subsequently, the effective hydraulic diffusivity of the rough fracture is estimated by fitting the computed pressure field with the solution of an equivalent parallel plate model. The results show that the long-range correlation aperture field (up to the fault scale) due to self-affinity significantly affects hydraulic pressure diffusion, which is manifested as a strong variability in the pressure distribution with the orientation of the imposed pressure drop. Based on a rigid-plastic rheology, when closing the fracture stepwise from the initial contact to the flow percolation threshold, a decrease in the hydraulic diffusivity over seven orders of magnitude in one direction along the fracture but over four orders of magnitude in the perpendicular direction is obtained. Our results have strong implications for the interpretation of some measured hydraulic diffusivity data as well as for the use of hydraulic diffusivity in interpreting the spatial distribution of fluid-induced seismic events in faulted reservoirs.
The effect of normal stress variations on fault frictional strength has been extensively characterized in laboratory experiments and modelling studies based on a rate-and-state-dependent fault ...friction formalism. However, the role of pore pressure changes during injection-induced fault reactivation and associated frictional phenomena is still not well understood. We apply rate-and-state friction (RSF) theory in finite element models to investigate the effect of fluid pressurization rate on fault (re)activation and on the resulting frictional slip characteristics at the laboratory scale. We consider a stepwise injection scenario where each fluid injection cycle consists of a fluid pressurization phase followed by a constant fluid pressure phase. We first calibrate our model formulation to recently published laboratory results of injection-driven shear slip experiments. In a second stage, we perform a parametric study by varying fluid pressurization rates to cover a higher dimensional parameter space. We demonstrate that, for high permeability laboratory samples, the energy release rate associated with fault reactivation can be effectively controlled by a stepwise fluid injection scheme, i.e. by the applied fluid pressurization rate and the duration of the constant pressure phase between each successive fluid pressurization phase. We observe a gradual transition from fault creep to slow stick-slip as the fluid pressurization rate increases. Furthermore, computed peak velocities for an extended range of fluid pressurization rate scenarios (0.5 MPa/min to 10 MPa/min) indicate a non-linear (power-law) relationship between the imposed fluid pressurization rate and the peak slip velocities, and consequently with the energy release rate, for scenarios with a fluid pressurization rate higher than a critical value of 4 MPa/min. We also observe that higher pressurization rates cause a delay in the stress release by the fault. We therefore argue that by adopting a stepwise fluid injection scheme with lower fluid pressurization rates may provide the operator with a better control over potential induced seismicity. The implications for field-scale applications that we can derive from our study are limited by the high matrix and fault permeability of the selected sample and the direct hydraulic connection between the injection well and the fault, which may not necessarily represent the conditions typical for fracture dominated deep geothermal reservoirs. Nevertheless, our results can serve as a basis for further laboratory experiments and field-scale modelling studies focused on better understanding the impact of stepwise injection protocols on fluid injection-induced seismicity.
Knowledge of groundwater flow is of high relevance for groundwater management or the planning of different subsurface utilizations such as deep geothermal facilities. While numerical models can help ...to understand the hydrodynamics of the targeted reservoir, their predictive capabilities are limited by the assumptions made in their setup. Among others, the choice of appropriate hydraulic boundary conditions, adopted to represent the regional to local flow dynamics in the simulation run, is of crucial importance for the final modelling result. In this work, we systematically address this problematic in the area of the central part of the Upper Rhine Graben. We quantify how and to which degree different upper boundary conditions and vertical cross-boundary fluid movement influence the calculated deep fluid flow conditions in the area under study. Robust results, which are insensitive to the choice of boundary condition, are: (i) a regional groundwater flow component descending from the graben shoulders to rise at its centre and (ii) the presence of heterogeneous hydraulic potentials at the rift shoulders. Contrarily, results affected by the chosen boundary conditions are: (i) calculated flow velocities, (ii) the absolute position of the upflow axis, and (iii) the evolving local flow dynamics. If, in general, the investigated area is part of a supra-regional flow system—like the central Upper Rhine Graben is part of the entire Upper Rhine Graben—the inflow and outflow across vertical model boundaries need to be considered.
This study aims at evaluating the spatial and temporal distribution of 26 micro-seismic events which were triggered by hydraulic stimulation at the geothermal site of Groß Schönebeck (Germany). For ...this purpose, the alteration of the in-situ stress state and the related change of slip tendency for existing fault zones due to stimulation treatments and reservoir operations is numerical simulated. Changes in slip tendency can potentially lead to reactivation of fault zones, the related movement can lead to the occurrence of seismic events. In the current numerical study, results obtained based on the thermal–hydraulic–mechanical coupled simulation are compared to field observations. In particular, the study focuses on describing the fault reactivation potential: (1) under in-situ stress conditions; (2) during a waterfrac stimulation treatment; and (3) during a projected 30 years production and injection period at the in-situ geothermal test-site Groß Schönebeck. The in-situ stress state indicates no potential for fault reactivation. During a waterfrac stimulation treatment, micro-seismic events were recorded. Our current evaluation shows an increase of slip tendency during the treatment above the failure level in the direct vicinity of the micro-seismic events. During the projected production and injection period, despite increased thermal stress, the values for slip tendency are below the threshold for fault reactivation. Based on these results, and to prove the applied method to evaluate the observed micro-seismic events, a final discussion is opened. This includes the in-situ stress state, the role of pre-existing fault zones, the adopted criterion for fault reactivation, and a 3D rock failure criterion based on true triaxial measurements.
Abstract
The distribution of earthquakes in stable intracontinental tectonic settings is typically far more diffuse than along plate boundaries and the causative mechanisms underlying some ...recognizable clustering are not understood. Here we show that seismicity in intraplate western and central Europe is largely limited to regions that exhibit a low-density layer in the uppermost lithospheric mantle and preferentially clustered above lateral gradients in upper mantle effective viscosity. The basis for these new insights into the thermal and density configuration of the upper mantle is provided by a shear-wave tomographic model. We propose that the spatial correlations between mantle low-density bodies and crustal seismicity reflect the importance of buoyancy forces within the mantle lithosphere. In addition, under the interaction of forces due to mantle gravitational instabilities, plate tectonics and postglacial rebound, the variably hot and strong mantle lithosphere responds by localized deformation which imposes differential loading on the overlying crust.
The Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is an active rift with a high geothermal potential. Despite being a well-studied area, the three-dimensional interaction of the main controlling factors of the thermal ...and hydraulic regime is still not fully understood. Therefore, we have used a data-based 3D structural model of the lithological configuration of the central URG for some conceptual numerical experiments of 3D coupled simulations of fluid and heat transport. To assess the influence of the main faults bordering the graben on the hydraulic and the deep thermal field, we carried out a sensitivity analysis on fault width and permeability. Depending on the assigned width and permeability of the main border faults, fluid velocity and temperatures are affected only in the direct proximity of the respective border faults. Hence, the hydraulic characteristics of these major faults do not significantly influence the graben-wide groundwater flow patterns. Instead, the different scenarios tested provide a consistent image of the main characteristics of fluid and heat transport as they have in common: (1) a topography-driven basin-wide fluid flow perpendicular to the rift axis from the graben shoulders to the rift center, (2) a N/NE-directed flow parallel to the rift axis in the center of the rift and, (3) a pronounced upflow of hot fluids along the rift central axis, where the streams from both sides of the rift merge. This upflow axis is predicted to occur predominantly in the center of the URG (northern and southern model area) and shifted towards the eastern boundary fault (central model area).
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