This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric ...Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN+PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 μg m−3 on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30–50 μg m−3. Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM10 for winter 2013–1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of −4.5 μg m−3. The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM10 (~ 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (~ 0.35 for PM10 and ~ 0.54 for ozone). This is related to a larger spread of the seven model scores for PM10 than for ozone linked to different levels of complexity of aerosol representation in the individual models. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.
Los revestimientos interiores son de las unidades constructivas que más interrelación tienen con los usuarios, dada su cercanía de uso con éstos. Esta investigación se centra en la determinación de ...los daños más usuales en los alicatados, enfoscados, guarnecidos, falsos techos y solados interiores, obtenidos en el conjunto de España a partir de los requerimientos presentados por los usuarios. Se determinan también cuáles son los orígenes que motivan estas deficiencias, así como la presencia que tienen las mismas en función del formato constructivo en donde tienen lugar (viviendas en bloque o unifamiliares). A partir de los datos manejados se presentan los grupos de daños más característicos, así como un procedimiento para determinar la probabilidad ante futuros requerimientos, en función de una matriz ponderada que clasifica la correspondencia entre los 4 descriptores manejados. El conocimiento de los resultados obtenidos ayudará a los técnicos a minimizar los daños en estas unidades constructivas.
El futuro del sistema Tierra-atmósfera dependerá, en gran medida, de nuestra capacidad para entender todos los procesos que están conduciendo al calentamiento global, y sus consecuencias climáticas, ...y, en este contexto, los gases de efecto invernadero (GEIs) juegan un papel clave como uno de los principales motores del cambio climático. Con esta idea nace el proyecto de investigación INMENSE (IASI for Surveying Methane and Nitrous Oxide in the Troposphere), el cual tiene como objetivo mejorar nuestra compresión de los balances atmosféricos de dos de los más importantes GEIs, el metano (CH4) y el óxido nitroso (N2O). Para ello, el proyecto INMENSE ha generado nuevas observaciones de concentraciones de CH4 y N2O en la troposfera media/alta a escala global a partir de las medidas satelitales del sensor IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), que vuela a bordo de los satélites meteorológicos EUMETSAT/Metop. En este trabajo los productos INMENSE IASI de CH4 y N2O son presentados, caracterizados y extensamente validados usando una base de datos de referencia multiplataforma (perfiles verticales de avión, medidas in-situ y remotas desde superficie). Esta completa validación sugiere que los productos IASI de CH4 y N2O tienen una precisión entre el 1-3% y un error sistemático del 2%, así como que son consistentes temporal y espacialmente. Por último, las observaciones IASI de CH4 y N2O sobre la Península Ibérica han sido comparadas a las simulaciones del modelo de transporte químico MOCAGE, analizando el grado de acuerdo entre ambas bases de datos.
A middle-aged man with cardiovascular risk factors, who suffered from a slight loss of unilateral vision for 6 months. After obtaining a diagnosis of diffuse choroiditis+papillitis within a probable ...masquerade syndrome, the patient was referred to outpatient Internal Medicine where this diagnosis was confirmed as an extended neoplastic disease.
Varón de mediana edad con factores de riesgo cardiovascular, que presenta leve pérdida de visión unilateral de 6 meses de evolución. Tras obtener diagnóstico de coroiditis difusa+papilitis en el seno de un probable síndrome de mascarada, es derivado a consultas externas de Medicina Interna, donde es corroborado dicho diagnóstico en el seno de una enfermedad neoplásica extendida.
Future of the Earth-atmosphere system will depend, to a large extent, on our capability of understanding all the processes driving climate change and, in this context, of outstanding importance are ...the monitoring and the investigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), as main drivers of the Earth’s climate change. With this idea the project INMENSE (IASI for Surveying Methane and Nitrous Oxide in the Troposphere) was born, which aims to improve our current understanding of the atmospheric budgets of two of the most important well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). To this end, INMENSE has generated a new global observational data set of middle/upper tropospheric concentrations of CH4 and N2O from the space-based remote sensor IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), on board the meteorological satellites EUMETSAT/Metop. In this work the INMENSE IASI CH4 and N2O products are presented, characterized and comprehensively validated by using a multiplatform reference database (aircraft vertical profiles, ground-based in-situ and remote-sensing observations). This extensive validation exercise suggests that the IASI CH4 and N2O products shows a precision between 1-3% and a bias of 2% as well as they are consistent temporally and spatially. Finally, the CH4 and N2O IASI observations over the Iberian Peninsula have been compared to MOCAGE chemical transport simulations, assessing the degree of agreement between both datasets.
The fat from the acorn-fed Iberian ham (AFIH) has a high content of oleic acid (60% of total fat) in spite of being from animal origin. The purpose of this study was to assess whether the consumption ...of a diet rich in oleic acid, a part of which was from AFIH, would have the same effect on the plasma lipids as another diet with the same amount of oleic acid but coming from olive oil. Variations in plasma lipids profile were studied in a group of 19 post-menopausal women. They were given two diets rich in oleic acid (22% of energy intake). In the first diet the oleic acid came from olive oil and AFIH (OO+AFIH). In the second diet the oleic acid came only from olive oil (OO). The composition of the diets was the same in both periods. Plasma total cholesterol, triglycerides, LDL cholesterol, and fibrinogen levels dropped significantly after the OO+AFIH diet while they were sustained after the OO diet. HDL cholesterol, Apo A and B and lipoprotein (a) did not vary significantly. No prejudicial effects on the lipid profile was observed in this study after the consumption of this meat product rich in oleic acid.
The evolution of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) activities at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) is reviewed not only for historical reasons but mainly to demonstrate the value added ...by Limited Area Models to deterministic and probabilistic short range forecasting. This paper highlights the decisive role of international cooperation in the general progress achieved by the NWP area of research. In fact, most of the activities here described have taken place in collaboration with the HIRLAM Consortium. The main milestones of HIRLAM model development are analyzed. Long-term performance assessments of HIRLAM operational runs illustrate the positive trend of forecast quality brought by the different scientific developments. Besides, the evolution of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational forecast skill in South-western Europe is presented. HIRLAM complements the global model forecasts in the short range and adds value especially for some surface parameters. The HARMONIE system is the result of the collaboration between HIRLAM and ALADIN Consortia addressing km scale operational forecasting. Some promising results using this new system are shown and the main ongoing work to improve HARMONIE is outlined. Innovative developments on Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems (SREPS) conducted over the last decade at AEMET – within HIRLAM and in collaboration with several NWP centres – are complementing the probabilistic ECMWF forecasts for the short range. Finally, the main achievements and future prospects of SREPS in the mesoscale are presented.
► We use milestones of NWP activities at AEMET to show de value of operational LAM. ► International collaboration has played a crucial role for NWP progress in Europe. ► HIRLAM has always provided more accurate surface parameters than ECMWF. ► Parameters having a high social impact are very much improved by km-scale HARMONIE. ► SREPS and GLAMEPS provide uncertainty assessment that complements ECMWF in the short-range.
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