•A dynamic adaptive group AHP consensus reaching model.•Prioritizing decision makers based on a Markov chain method.•A peer to peer opinion comparison and exchange method.•An automatic feedback ...mechanism as the engine of the dynamic adaptive consensus model.
Consensus reaching models are widely applied in group decision making problems to improve the group's consensus level before making a common decision. Within the context of the group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a novel consensus reaching model in a dynamic decision environment is proposed. A Markov chain method can be used to determine the decision makers’ weights of importance for the aggregation process with respect to the group members’ opinion transition probabilities. The proposed group consensus reaching model facilitates a peer to peer opinion exchange process which relieves the group of the need for a moderator by using an automatic feedback mechanism. Moreover, as the elements in the group decision framework change in a dynamic decision making problem, this model provides feedback suggestions that adaptively adjust for each of the decision makers depending on his credibility in each round. The full process of the dynamic adaptive consensus reaching model is presented and its properties are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.
In the current business environment, both managers and researchers have realized that assessing and managing risk in a supply chain operation is crucial to business success. Furthermore, the ...traditional assessment methodologies are unable to deal with intangible criteria which are crucial factor in the analysis. Thus, we develop an orders-of-magnitude AHP (OM-AHP) based ex-ante supply chain risk assessment model, to enable the comparison of the tangible and intangible elements that influence supply chain risks. In the application of OM-AHP method to risk assessment it also became apparent a formal guiding structure of how to pivot using OM-AHP did not exist. A formal method is proposed that can significantly reduce the number of needed comparisons and improve the consistency with pairwise comparisons matrices under any AHP decision. The process of the proposed supply chain risk assessment framework consists of three phases: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk ranking and analysis. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed risk assessment framework. The results are organized in a 2-way risk matrix based on their probability and consequence severity and tested for robustness via sensitivity analysis.
•For the first time, best practices for the reporting of ANP studies are proposed.•A minimum set of practices are needed to ensure the validity of ANP studies.•Best practices are presented as a ...convenient checklist for authors and reviewers.•A simple approach to check if the ANP supermatrix convergence assumptions are met.•Suggestions, examples and suitable references are provided for the adoption of best practices.
It has been more than 20 years since the appearance of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the scientific literature. Since that time, this method has been used to address complex decision-making situations and capture the dependency and feedback among the different elements in the decision model. Yet, a review of ANP studies published in 2015 shows that the reports of these studies are either deficient or incomplete in the analysis or reporting to the point that it casts a shadow on the validity of their conclusions. We propose, to our knowledge for the first time, a set of best practices to conduct, analyze and report ANP studies.
The iron and steel industry of China has a wide distribution structure, which leads to low production efficiency, high resource use, and weak bargaining power among global competitors. A carefully ...planned and executed restructuring of the industry will provide the enterprise with a competitive advantage. Making the optimal restructuring decisions, however, is not easy because: 1) the decisions involve qualitative measures within a complex and uncertain environment, 2) the alternatives include up to 31 administrative regions, and 3) there are astounding differences in the economic development among the 31 alternatives. The orders-of-magnitude approach of the analytic hierarchy process (OM-AHP) could be a useful method to tackle the first and second challenges. However, this approach does not currently explain how to address the large differences between small items in a cluster and big items in a cluster when there are no medium items between them. A model of OM-AHP with a dummy pivot is proposed to tackle this particular challenge. This approach is then applied in a multicriteria decision making problem to both demonstrate how the proposed approach works and provide a solution for the restructuring of the steel industry in China.
Improving relations between the People＇s Republic of China （PRC） and the United States of America （US） and ensuring that they work together as allies rather than as competitors can serve as a ...stabilizing force against armed conflict, particularly with surrounding nations. The economic, social, and political relationships between the PRC and US have progressed along a hilly journey. As the second largest economy in the world, the PRC has continued to develop its military and is determined to climb the technological ladder. This growth has led the US and the PRC to be referred to as a G-2 of superpowers. As the US hegemony continues to weaken this G-2 relationship is becoming more important. With significant economic, political, and security issues at stake it is crucial that efforts to strengthen these relations are prioritized and implemented. A rigorous prioritization process, the Analytic Network Process （ANP） is used herein to prioritize the efforts and initiatives in the G-2 relationship. The model is presented with results and the extensive sensitivity analysis present additional insight into the suggested solutions.
This paper examines consumer preferences and choice behavior in purchasing organic food products. Two studies investigate the role of organic food attributes in the consumer purchase decision and ...find the relative ranking of the attributes. Study I from 351 survey respondents in MTurk recognizes nine attributes for organic food purchase decisions. Study II surveys 298 MTurk participants to apply paired-choice analysis that reveals the relative preferences for attributes of organic food purchases on a ratio scale. Robustness and sensitivity analysis reveal the presence of a multi-segment organic food market. Segmentation analysis on the paired comparisons' results and validation on the clusters reveals three consumer segments: health-conscious, quality-conscious, and value-conscious. Notably, switching from organic to traditional foods is most likely from the value-conscious segment, whereas loyal behavior towards retailers can be expected from quality-conscious consumers.
The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a disruptive technology that has had significant impacts in the field of decision-making. By drawing on an analogy to the field of astronomy we can see that even ...with all that has been developed we must avoid the illusion of thinking that the field is mature and fully discovered. The ANP has many parallels to icebergs from what portion is visible to the value of providing relevant warning products. One of the most important contributions going forward will be the discovery of the more complex and hidden relationships and tests that ANP decision makers can use to test their models. These discoveries will improve both the reputation of the ANP and decision maker’s confidence in their models. Without these discoveries, the ANP runs the risk of becoming like a big box retail store.
Dr. Thomas Saaty developed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the underlying goal of making it simple and accessible to the lay user. In Saaty’s own words, the AHP is based on how “ordinary ...people process information” and “express the strength of their judgments” (Saaty, 1994, p. 37). Because he was successful in developing the AHP in accordance with these goals, when decision makers use the AHP their experience can feel magical as they find pairwise comparisons natural and can relate to the final priorities. Careful investigation of the axioms, theorems, and proofs shows that the AHP is more than just magic and provides scientific justification of the highest order. Five important components of the AHP and some background into the history of its development are summarized and highlighted from Saaty’s article, “How to Make a Decision: the Analytic Hierarchy Process” (Saaty, 1994). https://doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v9i3.519
• A Dynamic Group Consensus reaching process is proposed.• This approach uses twofold feedback mechanism: judgment feedback and priority weighting.• Group AHP is applied to Supplier Involvement in ...Collaborative Product Development.• Application of the method within the Chery company case study.
The group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is an effective tool to collect experts’ wisdom to evaluate complex decision making problems. Because judgments are always diverse in the real world, it is crucial to adequately support the consensus reaching process. In this paper, we develop a convergent group AHP consensus reaching model with a twofold feedback mechanism, which consists of both a judgment and a weighting feedback mechanism. In each round of this dynamic and interactive model, the most incompatible expert is asked to revise her judgment according to the judgment feedback mechanism. If the expert rejects the suggestion, her weight of importance will be adjusted downward based on the compatibility within the group by the weighting feedback mechanism. The proof of convergence of this consensus reaching model with the twofold mechanism is also provided and discussed. Hence this proposed consensus reaching process supports the leader or client in reaching a successful decision with a dispersed group of experts. The proposed consensus reaching model is applied to the brake pad supplier selection problem of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. The empirical example demonstrates that the proposed methodology provides an operational decision framework for companies to select suitable suppliers in the supplier involvement under the environment of collaborative product development (SICPD) through its successful application in that context
•Consistency in pairwise comparisons matrices is reviewed.•Unintended results are shown in four Supermatrices where consistent pairwise comparison matrices provide suboptimal final ...priorities.•Simulations are carried out to explore the frequency of such events occurring in general.•The Linking Coherency Index is proposed to identify and correct this problem.•The Linking Coherency Index is applied in a concise example.•The method can be applied using the Programming language R code in the supplementary data.
The consistency check within each pairwise comparison matrix is an important step in an Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision. In an ANP network there is both the ability and the need to test for additional levels of consistency or coherency among the priority vectors. Examples are used to highlight cases where a Supermatrix with priority vectors that were obtained from either perfect or nearly perfect consistent pairwise comparison matrices generates suboptimal decisions. Simulations are used to further demonstrate the frequency of these occurrences in general ANP networks. A form of cross validation within the Supermatrix called linking validation is developed and demonstrated. The linking validation method allows decision makers to use the priority vectors within the Supermatrix to validate other priority vectors within the Supermatrix. The linking validation method involves generating linking estimates. The linking estimates are compared against each other to identify the most incoherent priority vector by calculating the Linking Coherency Index (LCI) scores. The decision maker can then update the specified priority vector and repeat this process until the LCI-score for every linking estimate is below the given threshold. The use of linking validation to test for coherency further improves the validity of ANP models.
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