Background
This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The paper seeks to provide up-to-date information for the ...better management of climate change in the city. The analysis is based on the temperature difference in the city over two stations—Bole and Entoto. The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the possible trend of temperature variation as well as the effect of climate change in the study area.
Method
The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the temperature trend and significance level in the city.
Results
It was found that the MK2/MK3 statistic (Z) value for minimum, maximum and average temperatures for Bole station are 6.21/5.99, 2.49/2.6, and 6.09/6.14 respectively. The positive Kendall's Z value shows an upward trend and implies an increasing trend over time. This indicates a significant increase in the trend at a 5% level of significance since the significance level (alpha) is greater than the computed p-value (0.05 > p-values (0.0001)). Whereas for Entoto station, the MK1 statistic (Z) results are 1.64 for minimum, while the MK2/MK3 static (Z) are 0.71/0.65 for the maximum, and 0.17/1.04 for average temperature, and this positive value shows an indicator of an increasing trend. However, the increase is not significant at the 5% significant level since the computed p-value is larger than the significant level (alpha = 0.05).
Conclusions
There is a tendency of temperature increments in Bole station. This could be due to the influence of climate change which can lead to weather extremes in the capital city. Therefore, the study recommends that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health.
Energy system models can be used to explore future sustainable energy pathways for the household sector in order to inform policy decisions. However, few residential energy system models have been ...developed for the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region and they do not account for the key diversities of energy use within the sector. This paper addresses this gap by developing a new residential energy model for Nigeria—the most populous country in SSA. The model is then used to explore different energy transition scenarios for the sector. Results indicate that the final energy consumption of the rural households will reduce and that of the urban households will increase significantly by 2050 when compared to the base year levels. The results indicate that cooking remains the most energy-intensive end-use. Analysis of the scenarios reveals that realising Sustainable Development Goal number 7 in Nigeria will drastically reduce the final energy demand of the sector. The transition from fuelwood to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking will reduce indoor air pollutants considerably but will increase CO2 emissions by 2050. The results also indicate that including the cost of externalities in energy cost makes electricity and biogas more economically viable options for cooking. While the model results are insightful, the paper argues that robust and dedicated policies are needed for a sustainable energy transition of the Nigerian residential sector.
•A bottom-up energy system model for the Nigerian residential sector: TINIRES is developed.•Energy system implications of SDG 7 in Nigeria household sector by 2030 and beyond.•Household energy consumption is expected to increase by 100% between 2010 and 2050.•Biogas is the most economically viable option for cooking in Nigeria.
Abstract As developing countries like Nigeria strive to reduce carbon emissions while expanding energy access, mini-grids’ role has gained recognition. However, limited analysis exists regarding the ...role of interconnected mini-grids (IMGs) in the transition to net-zero emissions electricity generation systems. Here, we employ a bottom-up energy system optimization modeling framework to explore the techno-economic implications of deploying IMGs in net-zero emissions electricity systems, using Nigeria as a case study. We find that IMGs can contribute to modest system-level cost reductions in net-zero emissions electricity systems. IMGs can help minimize stranded electricity generation assets and decrease the reliance on negative emissions technologies in scenarios aiming for net-zero emissions electricity systems by 2050. In scenarios where the net-zero target is delayed until 2070, the widespread deployment of comparatively affordable cleaner generators and the phaseout of fossil fuel power plants may render negative emission technologies unnecessary. The model results further indicate that IMGs can help reduce the use of captive diesel/gasoline gen-sets quickly, and nuclear power has a role in the electricity generation mix in all net-zero emissions scenarios. Moreover, in order to achieve the median per capita electricity consumption observed in high-income countries by the year 2050, Nigeria must undertake a formidable expansion of its current electricity generation capacity at a rate approximately six times greater than that dictated by a business-as-usual trajectory. The study also provides recommendations to address the policy, regulatory, and financial considerations crucial for implementing IMGs successfully.
The 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21) mandated countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). In this paper, we develop the TIMES-Nigeria model and applied it to assess the ...impacts of Nigeria's NDC mitigation strategies and the ripple effects on the energy system. To this end, we modelled four mitigation scenarios in addition to the reference scenario. Increased renewables penetration, energy efficiency improvements, and fuel switching are identified as key mitigation strategies in the Nigerian NDC. Our results reveal profound restructuring of the Nigerian energy system with changes in the supply mix which mainly favour the deployment of solar PV. Our analysis shows that the residential sector has the largest potential for reducing energy demand while the power sector should be the focus for CO2 emissions mitigation. Furthermore, we explore the impacts of carbon tax on the energy system. Our analysis discloses a significant improvement in energy security due to mitigation actions. We also shed lights on the local and international implications of the results. While our analysis should be counted as a preliminary study because of limited available country data, the outcomes are expected to provide useful insights with respect to low-carbon transition in the country.
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•We introduce a new bottom-up technology-rich energy system model: TIMES-Nigeria.•We examine possible scenarios for low-carbon transitions in Nigeria up to 2050.•Profound structural effects induced in the energy system.•Carbon tax can potentially reduce energy-related emissions by around 77%.•Mitigation actions will boost energy security.
We used the Agriculture and Land Use National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software to estimate the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Nigerian agriculture sector in 2010. We went ahead to ...project future GHG emissions up to 2050. Two alternative GHG mitigation scenarios such as moderate (MS) and aggressive (AS) scenarios were developed and examined. Our results showed that total GHG emissions from Nigerian agriculture in 2010 were around 34.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. GHG emissions from livestock accounted for about 69.2 % of the total emissions, making it the largest source of GHG emissions in the sector. Nigeria’s agriculture GHG emissions are expected to increase by 94 % in 2050 relative to 2010 levels. Mitigation strategies in the Nigerian agriculture sector that do not compromise food security are limited. However, with the implementation of different GHG mitigation strategies in the alternative scenarios, emissions are expected to fall by around 13.2 % and 26.7 % by 2050 in the MS and AS, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. While the mitigation potentials are significant, we argue that robust and dedicated policies are required to accelerate climate-smart agriculture in Nigeria.
Nigeria has embarked on various programmes and policies in trying to make its energy system efficient. Renewable energy (RE) is one at the heart of this reformation. However, the country's energy ...reforms within the ambit of RE suffer setbacks, owing to poorly utilized RE resources and initiation of relevant policies. Consequently, these setbacks widen the gap between energy demand and supply. This has motivated the need to appraise the effectiveness, efficiency, equity and institutional feasibility of Nigeria's RE legal and policy framework. The study adds to literature by adopting a case study approach to initiate improvement of the effectiveness and efficiency of the Nigerian RE legal and policy framework. Our results disclose an urgent need to drive a coordinated and consistent legal intervention, specific and time-bound targets, political commitment, policy choice and design, funded research and development activities, social awareness and public engagement, in order to improve RE development and deployment in Nigeria. Additionally, enacting well-conceived RE laws in Nigeria and building relevant institutions, were identified to be crucial in achieving expansive and sustainable RE development for the country.
•Nigeria's renewable energy (RE) policies are not effective and lacks elements of a good policy design.•We present short, medium, and long-term recommendations to address the short-comings.•A RE law backed with an appropriate act of parliament is urgently needed.•Nigeria needs a nodal agency or a ‘system builder’ which will champion RE development.
Abstract
Traditional energy system modeling (ESM) has predominantly focused on techno-economic factors such as costs and efficiency. However, this narrow perspective fails to capture the intricate ...interplay between energy systems and socio-political dynamics that significantly influence their real-world impact. This piece underlines the importance of incorporating socio-political factors into ESM and highlights the need for a more comprehensive approach. We identify several reasons why socio-political factors are often overlooked in ESM, including technical bias, complexity, data standardization challenges, time and resource constraints, and societal biases. These factors must be addressed to improve the relevancy of ESM, reduce social injustice, and promote innovation in the design of future energy systems. Incorporating socio-political factors into ESM offers several benefits. To achieve these benefits, the paper suggests a shift towards a more comprehensive and value-driven approach and offers several options for improving ESM including: (I) recognizing that socio-political factors are just as important as techno-economic factors (II) improving the structure of the modeling process (III) developing new and innovative metrics for socio-political factors (IV) linking different types of models (V) emphasizing the need for interdisciplinarity in ESM. By prioritizing the aspects of the energy system that concern people to the same degree we prioritize cost, we can derive value-driven insights to assist in creating a more sustainable future for all.
The drive for net-zero emission and global decarbonization spurred the need for a worldwide transition towards cleaner energy options. The fossil-fuel-dominated global transportation system is a ...target for these initiatives, accounting for 37% of recent carbon emissions. This has accelerated the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) into the global market to cut down carbon emissions and improve efficiency in the transportation sector. In the face of this growth, limitations in EV charging infrastructure still loom large amongst EV consumers. Resolving this bottleneck requires systematic approaches to ensure seamless operation and integration into the existing transport systems. This study examines the critical role of IoT in addressing the challenges of EV public charging through reviewing the literature to understand the inter-relation and highlighting its attendant impact on consumer experience. Findings show that while IoT serves as a strong tool to foster public interest through favorable public policy, its novel and innovative nature faces developmental challenges based on existing government policies that could hinder the interest of potential investors. Therefore, governments should consider evaluating existing policies and practices to ascertain their suitability for IoT adoption in EVs, ensuring that they do not constitute unintentional barriers.
We used a bottom-up optimisation model to explore the energy system implications of five alternative policy pathways for the Nigerian transport sector. Our study considered fuel switching, improved ...fuel economy, modal shifting, improved logistics, and carbon tax for the period 2010–2050. Results show that the alternative pathways will reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions significantly. Particularly, we found that improved vehicle fuel economy and a carbon tax can lower Nigeria's CO2 emissions by 42.8% and 26.9% respectively, in 2050 when compared with the reference case. Additionally, low-carbon pathways will enhance air quality, energy security, and the productive use of energy.
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•We examined low-carbon pathways for Nigeria's land transport system.•Energy consumption and CO2 emissions are expected to increase sixfold between 2010 and 2050.•Energy security is boosted due to energy demand reductions in low-carbon scenarios.•Improved vehicle fuel economy and CNG will play a key role in the low-carbon transition of Nigerian transport.
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