Previous research demonstrates that refugee populations can threaten the security of receiving countries. This study, in contrast, seeks to examine the physical security challenges refugees face in ...host states. It utilizes a new, geographically referenced data set on subcountry refugee demographics to test the hypothesis that locations home to larger refugee populations are more likely to experience one-sided attacks by conflict actors. Results demonstrate that refugee accommodation is a significant predictor of one-sided violence in Africa. In particular, combatants commit significantly more acts of violence against civilians in locations home to larger numbers of self-settled refugees compared to other locations. These findings suggest that scholars and practitioners account for possible dangers presented by refugee flows and threats to refugees simultaneously.
Are areas that host encamped refugees more likely to experience communal conflict, and under what conditions? Building on insights from the refugee studies literature suggesting that settling ...refugees in camps can intensify intercommunal tension in host communities, this article investigates the effect of refugee encampment on the occurrence of communal conflict at the subnational level in sub-Saharan Africa. It first tests for a general relationship between the overall presence and population intensity of encamped refugees and communal conflict before assessing whether this relationship is moderated by local-level characteristics, including interethnic linkages and political and economic marginalization within the host region. The basic findings show that communal conflict occurs more frequently in regions where refugees are camp-settled. Tests for interactive effects indicate that refugee camps have a significant marginal effect on conflict only if they are located in areas with politically marginalized host groups. Origin country/host region ethnic ties are shown to exert significant moderating effects. Moreover, results from an extended set of analyses show that the form of refugee settlement matters, as the presence and population intensity of self-settled refugees are related to decreases in the occurrence of communal conflict.
More so than in the past, the US is now embracing the logic of preventive force: using military force to counter potential threats around the globe before they have fully materialized. While popular ...with individuals who seek to avoid too many "boots on the ground," preventive force is controversial because of its potential for unnecessary collateral damage. Who decides what threats are 'imminent'? Is there an international legal basis to kill or harm individuals who have a connection to that threat? Do the benefits of preventive force justify the costs? And, perhaps most importantly, is the US setting a dangerous international precedent?
InPreventive Force, editors Kerstin Fisk and Jennifer Ramos bring together legal scholars, political scientists, international relations scholars, and prominent defense specialists to examine these questions, whether in the context of full-scale preventive war or preventive drone strikes. In particular, the volume highlights preventive drones strikes, as they mark a complete transformation of how the US understands international norms regarding the use of force, and could potentially lead to a 'slippery slope' for the US and other nations in terms of engaging in preventive warfare as a matter of course. A comprehensive resource that speaks to the contours of preventive force as a security strategy as well as to the practical, legal, and ethical considerations of its implementation,Preventive Forceis a useful guide for political scientists, international relations scholars, and policymakers who seek a thorough and current overview of this essential topic.
This paper examines the propensity for host governments and the groups they sponsor to engage in violence in areas that host refugee populations. Drawing on arguments that governments strategically ...delegate violence to affiliated groups for "plausible deniability" purposes, it argues that, due to concerns over self-settled refugees' welfare burden as well as the concern that these refugees will choose to live in border areas that are more vulnerable to (or useful for) militant activity, host governments, and their proxies are likely to target violence in areas with more substantial refugee self-settlement. At the same time, it anticipates that host governments will "outsource" this violence to surrogate groups where sizable camp-settled populations are present, due to a heightened risk of suffering international audience costs. Findings from a large-N sample of countries in Africa provide some evidence of the hypothesized outsourcing effect. While the presence of sizable camps alongside large self-settled populations is associated with a reduction in the likelihood of violence by host governments, it significantly increases the likelihood of violence committed by host-aligned proxies.
Why are refugee populations associated with the spread of conflict? Do refugees upset local dynamics by increasing the mobilization opportunities of rebels? Work on rebel motivation predicts that the ...strategic impact of a location influences armed actors' decisions to fight there; thus, I identify two strategic aspects of refugee geography which may influence where conflict takes place in the host country - refugee mass and refugee accommodation type. I examine the influence of these factors using a new, disaggregated dataset on refugees in 26 African countries engaged in armed conflict during the period 2000-2010.
Emotions, Terrorist Threat, and Drones Fisk, Kerstin; Merolla, Jennifer L.; Ramos, Jennifer M.
Journal of conflict resolution/The Journal of conflict resolution,
04/2019, Letnik:
63, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
In this article, we investigate how threat perceptions and emotions can jointly impact individuals’attitudes toward drone strikes. We argue that conditions of threat can increase public support for ...the use of drone strikes. We further contend that the effect of threat perceptions on support for drone strikes is mediated by negative, emotional reactions, particularly anger. We test our arguments in France, the United States, and Turkey using data generated from nationally representative online surveys, in which individuals were randomly assigned to a control group, a condition in which they read about terrorist threat (with or without a reminder of democratic values), or a condition in which they read about economic threats. Our findings have implications for long-standing notions about the roles of rational calculations and psychological processes in influencing support for aggressive foreign policy.
Political scientists have demonstrated that refugees can pose serious threats to national and international security by facilitating the spread of violent conflict. However, scholars have overlooked ...considerable variation in the distribution of both refugees and conflict within states. Conflict may take place far from where refugee populations are located in the host country, calling the influence of refugees into question. Examining refugee geography can illuminate whether (and why) armed actors engage in conflict in refugee hosting areas. Several hypotheses are developed relating three main elements of refugee geography to spatial patterns of conflict in refugee hosting countries—refugee mass, refugee concentration and refugee settlement type. These hypotheses are tested using new, geographically-referenced data on the sub-national characteristics of refugee populations alongside disaggregated data on conflict and violence against civilians. Results demonstrate that interacting physical and human elements of geography is key to understanding the relationship between refugees and conflict—sub-national regions that host larger and predominantly camp-based refugee populations do experience conflict more often than those that do not, but only when they are located on an international border. Findings also demonstrate that refugee geography is a significant predictor of one-sided violence; non-state armed groups victimize civilians at higher rates in regions that host predominantly camp-based refugee populations. At the same time, regions hosting larger refugee populations in general are shown to be unrelated to rates of violence committed by sub-state groups. The results lend support to claims that these organizations target resource abundant locations based on “lootability” and that humanitarian assistance plays an integral role in the political economy of intrastate conflict. The findings further suggest that scholars and practitioners address the security threats posed by refugees and threats refugees face simultaneously, as each of these matters has important implications for human security.
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