Vaccines are needed to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and to protect persons who are at high risk for complications. The mRNA-1273 vaccine is a lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated mRNA-based ...vaccine that encodes the prefusion stabilized full-length spike protein of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes Covid-19.
This phase 3 randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial was conducted at 99 centers across the United States. Persons at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection or its complications were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular injections of mRNA-1273 (100 μg) or placebo 28 days apart. The primary end point was prevention of Covid-19 illness with onset at least 14 days after the second injection in participants who had not previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2.
The trial enrolled 30,420 volunteers who were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either vaccine or placebo (15,210 participants in each group). More than 96% of participants received both injections, and 2.2% had evidence (serologic, virologic, or both) of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline. Symptomatic Covid-19 illness was confirmed in 185 participants in the placebo group (56.5 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval CI, 48.7 to 65.3) and in 11 participants in the mRNA-1273 group (3.3 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.7 to 6.0); vaccine efficacy was 94.1% (95% CI, 89.3 to 96.8%; P<0.001). Efficacy was similar across key secondary analyses, including assessment 14 days after the first dose, analyses that included participants who had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline, and analyses in participants 65 years of age or older. Severe Covid-19 occurred in 30 participants, with one fatality; all 30 were in the placebo group. Moderate, transient reactogenicity after vaccination occurred more frequently in the mRNA-1273 group. Serious adverse events were rare, and the incidence was similar in the two groups.
The mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy at preventing Covid-19 illness, including severe disease. Aside from transient local and systemic reactions, no safety concerns were identified. (Funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427.).
Determining the effect of vaccine-induced immune response on disease risk is an important goal of vaccinology. Typically, immune correlates analyses are conducted prospectively with immune response ...measured shortly after vaccination and subsequent disease status regressed on immune response. In outbreaks and rare disease settings, collecting samples from all vaccinees is not feasible. The test negative design is a retrospective design used to measure vaccine efficacy where symptomatic individuals who present at a clinic are assessed for relevant disease (cases) or some other disease (controls) and vaccination status ascertained. This article proposes that test negative vaccinees have immune response to vaccine assessed both for relevant (e.g., Ebola) and irrelevant (e.g., vector) proteins. If the latter immune response is unaffected by active (Ebola) infection, and is correlated with the relevant immune response, it can serve as a proxy for the immune response of interest proximal to infection. We show that logistic regression using imputed immune response as the covariate and case disease as outcome can estimate the prospective immune response slope and detail the assumptions needed for unbiased inference. The method is evaluated by simulation under various scenarios including constant and decaying immune response. A simulated dataset motivated by ring vaccination for an ongoing Ebola outbreak is analyzed.
In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of ...protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.
Linezolid has antimycobacterial activity in vitro and is increasingly used for patients with highly drug-resistant tuberculosis.
We enrolled 41 patients who had sputum-culture-positive extensively ...drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis and who had not had a response to any available chemotherapeutic option during the previous 6 months. Patients were randomly assigned to linezolid therapy that started immediately or after 2 months, at a dose of 600 mg per day, without a change in their background regimen. The primary end point was the time to sputum-culture conversion on solid medium, with data censored 4 months after study entry. After confirmed sputum-smear conversion or 4 months (whichever came first), patients underwent a second randomization to continued linezolid therapy at a dose of 600 mg per day or 300 mg per day for at least an additional 18 months, with careful toxicity monitoring.
By 4 months, 15 of the 19 patients (79%) in the immediate-start group and 7 of the 20 (35%) in the delayed-start group had culture conversion (P=0.001). Most patients (34 of 39 87%) had a negative sputum culture within 6 months after linezolid had been added to their drug regimen. Of the 38 patients with exposure to linezolid, 31 (82%) had clinically significant adverse events that were possibly or probably related to linezolid, including 3 patients who discontinued therapy. Patients who received 300 mg per day after the second randomization had fewer adverse events than those who continued taking 600 mg per day. Thirteen patients completed therapy and have not had a relapse. Four cases of acquired resistance to linezolid have been observed.
Linezolid is effective at achieving culture conversion among patients with treatment-refractory XDR pulmonary tuberculosis, but patients must be monitored carefully for adverse events. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Ministry of Health and Welfare, South Korea; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00727844.).
Hung et al. (2007) considered the problem of controlling the type I error rate for a primary and secondary endpoint in a clinical trial using a gatekeeping approach in which the secondary endpoint is ...tested only if the primary endpoint crosses its monitoring boundary. They considered a two‐look trial and showed by simulation that the naive method of testing the secondary endpoint at full level α at the time the primary endpoint reaches statistical significance does not control the familywise error rate at level α. Tamhane et al. (2010) derived analytic expressions for familywise error rate and power and confirmed the inflated error rate of the naive approach. Nonetheless, many people mistakenly believe that the closure principle can be used to prove that the naive procedure controls the familywise error rate. The purpose of this note is to explain in greater detail why there is a problem with the naive approach and show that the degree of alpha inflation can be as high as that of unadjusted monitoring of a single endpoint.
Vaccine efficacy at a point in time Follmann, Dean A; Fay, Michael P
Biostatistics (Oxford, England),
2023-Jul-14, Letnik:
24, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Summary
Vaccine trials are generally designed to assess efficacy on clinical disease. The vaccine effect on infection, while important both as a proxy for transmission and to describe a vaccine’s ...entire effects, requires frequent (e.g., twice a week) longitudinal sampling to capture all infections. Such sampling may not always be feasible. A logistically easy approach is to collect a sample to test for infection at a regularly scheduled visit. Such point or cross-sectional sampling does not permit estimation of classic vaccine efficacy on infection, as long duration infections are sampled with higher probability. Building on work by Rinta-Kokko and others (2009) and Lipsitch and Kahn (2021), we evaluate proxies of the vaccine effect on transmission at a point in time; the vaccine efficacy on prevalent infection and on prevalent viral load, VE$_{\rm PI}$ and VE$_{\rm PVL}$, respectively. Longer infections with higher viral loads should have more transmission potential and prevalent vaccine efficacy naturally captures this aspect. We demonstrate how these parameters obtain from an underlying proportional hazards model for infection and allow for waning efficacy on infection, duration, and viral load. We estimate these parameters based on regression models with either repeated cross-sectional sampling or frequent longitudinal sampling. We evaluate the methods by simulation and analyze a phase III vaccine trial with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cross-sectional sampling for subclinical infection.
In the absence of an effective and safe vaccine against HIV-1, the administration of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) represents a logical alternative approach to prevent virus transmission. ...Here, we introduced two mutations encoding amino acid substitutions (M428L and N434S, collectively referred to as 'LS') into the genes encoding the crystallizable fragment domains of the highly potent HIV-specific 3BNC117 and 10-1074 bNAbs to increase their half-lives and evaluated their efficacy in blocking infection following repeated low-dose mucosal challenges of rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) with the tier 2 SHIV
. A single intravenous infusion of 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibodies markedly delayed virus acquisition for 18 to 37 weeks (median, 27 weeks), whereas the protective effect of the 3BNC117-LS bNAb was more modest (provided protection for 11-23 weeks; median, 17 weeks). Serum concentrations of the 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibody gradually declined and became undetectable in all recipients between weeks 26 and 41, whereas the 3BNC117-LS bNAb exhibited a shorter half-life. To model immunoprophylaxis against genetically diverse and/or neutralization-resistant HIV-1 strains, a combination of the 3BNC117-LS plus 10-1074-LS monoclonal antibodies was injected into macaques via the more clinically relevant subcutaneous route. Even though the administered mixture contained an amount of each bNAb that was nearly threefold less than the quantity of the single monoclonal antibody in the intravenous injections, the monoclonal antibody combination still protected macaques for a median of 20 weeks. The extended period of protection observed in macaques for the 3BNC117-LS plus 10-1074-LS combination could translate into an effective semiannual or annual immunoprophylaxis regimen for preventing HIV-1 infections in humans.
The safety and efficacy of vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease (EVD) were unknown when the incidence of EVD was peaking in Liberia.
We initiated a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of ...the chimpanzee adenovirus 3 vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) and the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vaccine (rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP) in Liberia. A phase 2 subtrial was embedded to evaluate safety and immunogenicity. Because the incidence of EVD declined in Liberia, the phase 2 component was expanded and the phase 3 component was eliminated.
A total of 1500 adults underwent randomization and were followed for 12 months. The median age of the participants was 30 years; 36.6% of the participants were women. During the week after the administration of vaccine or placebo, adverse events occurred significantly more often with the active vaccines than with placebo; these events included injection-site reactions (in 28.5% of the patients in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and 30.9% of those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 6.8% of those in the placebo group), headache (in 25.1% and 31.9%, vs. 16.9%), muscle pain (in 22.3% and 26.9%, vs. 13.3%), feverishness (in 23.9% and 30.5%, vs. 9.0%), and fatigue (in 14.0% and 15.4%, vs. 8.8%) (P<0.001 for all comparisons); these differences were not seen at 1 month. Serious adverse events within 12 months after injection were seen in 40 participants (8.0%) in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group, in 47 (9.4%) in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, and in 59 (11.8%) in the placebo group. By 1 month, an antibody response developed in 70.8% of the participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and in 83.7% of those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 2.8% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons). At 12 months, antibody responses in participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group (63.5%) and in those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group (79.5%) remained significantly greater than in those in the placebo group (6.8%, P<0.001 for both comparisons).
A randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of two vaccines that was rapidly initiated and completed in Liberia showed the capability of conducting rigorous research during an outbreak. By 1 month after vaccination, the vaccines had elicited immune responses that were largely maintained through 12 months. (Funded by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Liberian Ministry of Health; PREVAIL I ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02344407 .).
Background:
Endpoint choice for randomized controlled trials of treatments for novel coronavirus-induced disease (COVID-19) is complex. Trials must start rapidly to identify treatments that can be ...used as part of the outbreak response, in the midst of considerable uncertainty and limited information. COVID-19 presentation is heterogeneous, ranging from mild disease that improves within days to critical disease that can last weeks to over a month and can end in death. While improvement in mortality would provide unquestionable evidence about the clinical significance of a treatment, sample sizes for a study evaluating mortality are large and may be impractical, particularly given a multitude of putative therapies to evaluate. Furthermore, patient states in between “cure” and “death” represent meaningful distinctions. Clinical severity scores have been proposed as an alternative. However, the appropriate summary measure for severity scores has been the subject of debate, particularly given the variable time course of COVID-19. Outcomes measured at fixed time points, such as a comparison of severity scores between treatment and control at day 14, may risk missing the time of clinical benefit. An endpoint such as time to improvement (or recovery) avoids the timing problem. However, some have argued that power losses will result from reducing the ordinal scale to a binary state of “recovered” versus “not recovered.”
Methods:
We evaluate statistical power for possible trial endpoints for COVID-19 treatment trials using simulation models and data from two recent COVID-19 treatment trials.
Results:
Power for fixed time-point methods depends heavily on the time selected for evaluation. Time-to-event approaches have reasonable statistical power, even when compared with a fixed time-point method evaluated at the optimal time.
Discussion:
Time-to-event analysis methods have advantages in the COVID-19 setting, unless the optimal time for evaluating treatment effect is known in advance. Even when the optimal time is known, a time-to-event approach may increase power for interim analyses.
The development of a protective vaccine remains a top priority for the control of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Here, we show that a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine co-expressing membrane-anchored HIV-1 ...envelope (Env) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) Gag proteins to generate virus-like particles (VLPs) induces antibodies capable of broad neutralization and reduces the risk of infection in rhesus macaques. In mice, immunization with co-formulated env and gag mRNAs was superior to env mRNA alone in inducing neutralizing antibodies. Macaques were primed with a transmitted-founder clade-B env mRNA lacking the N276 glycan, followed by multiple booster immunizations with glycan-repaired autologous and subsequently bivalent heterologous envs (clades A and C). This regimen was highly immunogenic and elicited neutralizing antibodies against the most prevalent (tier-2) HIV-1 strains accompanied by robust anti-Env CD4
T cell responses. Vaccinated animals had a 79% per-exposure risk reduction upon repeated low-dose mucosal challenges with heterologous tier-2 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV AD8). Thus, the multiclade env-gag VLP mRNA platform represents a promising approach for the development of an HIV-1 vaccine.
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