It is now widely understood that mobile phone use has beneficial effects on development in developing countries, but little is known about the effects at the household level. We examine the impact of ...mobile telephone use on household income using a unique cross-sectional data set from Uganda. We use a novel econometric technique to handle endogeneity, which models the correlation between the endogenous regressor and the error term with copulas. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the copula method has been applied in the economic development literature. We find a positive impact of mobile phone use on income.
Hyndman and Koehler (2006) recommend that the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) should become the standard when comparing forecast accuracies. This note supports their claim by showing that the MASE ...fits nicely within the standard statistical procedures initiated by Diebold and Mariano (1995) for testing equal forecast accuracies. Various other criteria do not fit, as they do not imply the relevant moment properties, and this is illustrated in some simulation experiments.
We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual ...real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.
Forecasting annual inflation in Suriname Ooft, Gavin; Bhaghoe, Sailesh; Hans Franses, Philip
Journal of international financial markets, institutions & money,
July 2021, 2021-07-00, Letnik:
73
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
•Forecasting annual inflation can be difficult due to lack of data in developing countries.•We propose MIDAS regressions for annual inflation rates in Suriname.•The models associate with a hybrid ...New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC).•Forecasts appear to be very accurate, also in the high inflation period in 2016–2017.
For many countries, statistical information on macroeconomic variables is not abundant and, hence, creating forecasts for a key variable like inflation can be cumbersome. This paper addresses the creation of current year forecasts from a MIDAS regression for annual inflation rates in Suriname where monthly inflation rates are the explanatory variables, and where the latter are only available for one and a half decade. The constructed model associates with a hybrid New-Keynesian Philips curve (NKPC). Specific focus is given to the forecast accuracy in the high inflation period in 2016–2017. The forecasts became very accurate when the models included data from May onwards. A particular parameter restriction was also useful to improve forecast accuracy.
The authors propose a new model to capture unobserved consideration from discrete choice data. This approach allows for unobserved dependence in consideration among brands, easily copes with many ...brands, and accommodates different effects of the marketing mix on consideration and choice as well as unobserved consumer heterogeneity in both processes. An important goal of this study is to establish the validity of the existing practice to infer consideration sets from observed choices in panel data. The authors show with experimental data that underlying consideration sets can be reliably retrieved from choice data alone and that consideration is positively affected by display and shelf space. Next, the model is applied to Information Resources Inc. panel data. The findings suggest that promotion effects are larger when they are included in the consideration stage of the two-stage model than in a single-stage model. The authors also find that consideration covaries across brands and that this covariation is mainly driven by unobserved consumer heterogeneity. Finally, the authors show the implications of the model for promotion planning relative to a more standard model of choice.
Time-varying lag cointegration Franses, Philip Hans
Journal of computational and applied mathematics,
July 2021, 2021-07-00, Letnik:
390
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This paper proposes an alternative estimation method for cointegration, which allows for variation in the leads and lags in the cointegration relation. The method is more powerful than a standard ...method. Illustrations to annual inflation rates for Japan and the USA and to seasonal cointegration for quarterly consumption and income in Japan shows its ease of use and empirical merits.
A typical feature of life cycles of rock bands is that they seem to consist of two distinct stages. A first stage associates with initial entry and a second stage seems to be related to more ...mainstream success. This paper proposes a simple model to describe these two stages in the life cycles. The model is put to an empirical test by analyzing the numbers of annual shows of forty-nine heavy metal bands. It is found that initial peak success is attained, on average, after seven years, and that the second wave of success occurs after twenty years, again on average. The second peak associates with twice as much success as the first.
•This paper proposes a simple model to describe box office revenues of motion pictures.•The new model assumes that there are two types of adopters, with the first being the moviegoers who are aroused ...to go to a movie based on intrinsic motivation, possibly aroused by trailers, advertising and social media content, and a second type of moviegoers who enjoy shared consumption.•A second key feature is that the first type starts adopting already before the launch of a movie but can only go a movie when it is launched, while the second type starts to adopt right from the launch onwards.•Parameter estimation turns out to be easy as is illustrated for forty top lifetime grosses (as per 2020) for the USA.
Weekly box office revenues for motion pictures show a pattern where peak revenues often appear in the first week, and then new revenues slowly die out. This paper proposes a simple model to describe such box office revenues. The new model assumes that there are two types of adopters, with the first being the moviegoers who are aroused to go to a movie based on intrinsic motivation, possibly aroused by trailers, advertising and social media content, and a second type of moviegoers who enjoy shared consumption. A second key feature of the simple model, which involves basic logistic diffusion patterns, is that the first type starts adopting already before the launch of a movie, but can only go a movie when it is launched, while the second type starts to adopt right from the launch onwards. The sum of the two S-shaped diffusion processes only gets observed from the launch of a movie onwards. Parameter estimation turns out to be easy as is illustrated for forty top lifetime grosses (as per 2020) for the USA.
The authors propose a dynamic direct mailing response model with competitive effects. Purchase and promotion history are incorporated to map the dynamic competitive interactions among the firms ...sending the mailings. The authors investigate the impact of direct mailings on the revenues of each firm and its competitors over time. The model accounts for endogeneity of the mailing decision and for unobserved heterogeneity across households. The model is considered in a charitable giving setting, in which households often receive many direct mailings of different charities within a short period and competition is strong. The authors construct a unique database by merging the databases of three large charity organizations in the Netherlands. This results in household-level data on the direct mailings households received from and their donations to each of the three charities. The results show that a charity's own mailings are short-term substitutes; that is, an extra mailing cannibalizes the revenues of subsequent mailings. Furthermore, competitive charitable direct mailings tend to be short-term complements; that is, the direct mailings increase the total pie that is divided among the charities. In the long run, these effects die out. The results are also interpreted from a behavioral perspective.
PDF
