•Genetic Evolutionary Programming (GEP) has been used to analyze and predict COVID-19 in India.•Two Prediction models for confirmed cases and death cases for India and three most effected states are ...designed.•The models presents prediction data for next 10 days till 25 May 2020.•Mathematical formulations for the prediction models have been added.•GEP models are highly reliable and provide better predictions.
COVID-19 declared as a global pandemic by WHO, has emerged as the most aggressive disease, impacting more than 90% countries of the world. The virus started from a single human being in China, is now increasing globally at a rate of 3% to 5% daily and has become a never ending process. Some studies even predict that the virus will stay with us forever. India being the second most populous country of the world, is also not saved, and the virus is spreading as a community level transmitter. Therefore, it become really important to analyse the possible impact of COVID-19 in India and forecast how it will behave in the days to come. In present work, prediction models based on genetic programming (GP) have been developed for confirmed cases (CC) and death cases (DC) across three most affected states namely Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi as well as whole India. The proposed prediction models are presented using explicit formula, and impotence of prediction variables are studied. Here, statistical parameters and metrics have been used for evaluated and validate the evolved models. From the results, it has been found that the proposed GEP-based models use simple linkage functions and are highly reliable for time series prediction of COVID-19 cases in India.
•Developed Marine Predators Algorithm as a nature inspired optimization method.•Tested the performance of MPA against mathematical and engineering benchmarks.•Compared MPA with other well-known ...optimization algorithms.•Conducted experimental and analytical convergence analyses.•Demonstrated superiority of MPA in various conditions.
This paper presents a nature-inspired metaheuristic called Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) and its application in engineering. The main inspiration of MPA is the widespread foraging strategy namely Lévy and Brownian movements in ocean predators along with optimal encounter rate policy in biological interaction between predator and prey. MPA follows the rules that naturally govern in optimal foraging strategy and encounters rate policy between predator and prey in marine ecosystems. This paper evaluates the MPA's performance on twenty-nine test functions, test suite of CEC-BC-2017, randomly generated landscape, three engineering benchmarks, and two real-world engineering design problems in the areas of ventilation and building energy performance. MPA is compared with three classes of existing optimization methods, including (1) GA and PSO as the most well-studied metaheuristics, (2) GSA, CS and SSA as almost recently developed algorithms and (3) CMA-ES, SHADE and LSHADE-cnEpSin as high performance optimizers and winners of IEEE CEC competition. Among all methods, MPA gained the second rank and demonstrated very competitive results compared to LSHADE-cnEpSin as the best performing method and one of the winners of CEC 2017 competition. The statistical post hoc analysis revealed that MPA can be nominated as a high-performance optimizer and is a significantly superior algorithm than GA, PSO, GSA, CS, SSA and CMA-ES while its performance is statistically similar to SHADE and LSHADE-cnEpSin. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/afshinfaramarzi/Marine-Predators-Algorithm, http://built-envi.com/portfolio/marine-predators-algorithm/, https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74578-marine-predators-algorithm-mpa, and http://www.alimirjalili.com/MPA.html.
•A performance-based algorithm (HGS) is proposed for global search and optimization in real world.•HGS simulates the logic of the collaborative interactions based on individual hunger.•The extensive ...results on benchmark problems and real datasets have been investigated.•The proposed HGS is applied to engineering optimization to reduce the consumption.
A recent set of overused population-based methods have been published in recent years. Despite their popularity, most of them have uncertain, immature performance, partially done verifications, similar overused metaphors, similar immature exploration and exploitation components and operations, and an insecure tradeoff between exploration and exploitation trends in most of the new real-world cases. Therefore, all users need to extensively modify and adjust their operations based on main evolutionary methods to reach faster convergence, more stable balance, and high-quality results. To move the optimization community one step ahead toward more focus on performance rather than change of metaphor, a general-purpose population-based optimization technique called Hunger Games Search (HGS) is proposed in this research with a simple structure, special stability features and very competitive performance to realize the solutions of both constrained and unconstrained problems more effectively. The proposed HGS is designed according to the hunger-driven activities and behavioural choice of animals. This dynamic, fitness-wise search method follows a simple concept of “Hunger” as the most crucial homeostatic motivation and reason for behaviours, decisions, and actions in the life of all animals to make the process of optimization more understandable and consistent for new users and decision-makers. The Hunger Games Search incorporates the concept of hunger into the feature process; in other words, an adaptive weight based on the concept of hunger is designed and employed to simulate the effect of hunger on each search step. It follows the computationally logical rules (games) utilized by almost all animals and these rival activities and games are often adaptive evolutionary by securing higher chances of survival and food acquisition. This method's main feature is its dynamic nature, simple structure, and high performance in terms of convergence and acceptable quality of solutions, proving to be more efficient than the current optimization methods. The effectiveness of HGS was verified by comparing HGS with a comprehensive set of popular and advanced algorithms on 23 well-known optimization functions and the IEEE CEC 2014 benchmark test suite. Also, the HGS was applied to several engineering problems to demonstrate its applicability. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed optimizer compared to popular essential optimizers, several advanced variants of the existing methods, and several CEC winners and powerful differential evolution (DE)-based methods abbreviated as LSHADE, SPS_L_SHADE_EIG, LSHADE_cnEpSi, SHADE, SADE, MPEDE, and JDE methods in handling many single-objective problems. We designed this open-source population-based method to be a standard tool for optimization in different areas of artificial intelligence and machine learning with several new exploratory and exploitative features, high performance, and high optimization capacity. The method is very flexible and scalable to be extended to fit more form of optimization cases in both structural aspects and application sides. This paper's source codes, supplementary files, Latex and office source files, sources of plots, a brief version and pseudocode, and an open-source software toolkit for solving optimization problems with Hunger Games Search and online web service for any question, feedback, suggestion, and idea on HGS algorithm will be available to the public at https://aliasgharheidari.com/HGS.html.
The optimization field suffers from the metaphor-based “pseudo-novel” or “fancy” optimizers. Most of these cliché methods mimic animals' searching trends and possess a small contribution to the ...optimization process itself. Most of these cliché methods suffer from the locally efficient performance, biased verification methods on easy problems, and high similarity between their components' interactions. This study attempts to go beyond the traps of metaphors and introduce a novel metaphor-free population-based optimization method based on the mathematical foundations and ideas of the Runge Kutta (RK) method widely well-known in mathematics. The proposed RUNge Kutta optimizer (RUN) was developed to deal with various types of optimization problems in the future. The RUN utilizes the logic of slope variations computed by the RK method as a promising and logical searching mechanism for global optimization. This search mechanism benefits from two active exploration and exploitation phases for exploring the promising regions in the feature space and constructive movement toward the global best solution. Furthermore, an enhanced solution quality (ESQ) mechanism is employed to avoid the local optimal solutions and increase convergence speed. The RUN algorithm's efficiency was evaluated by comparing with other metaheuristic algorithms in 50 mathematical test functions and four real-world engineering problems. The RUN provided very promising and competitive results, showing superior exploration and exploitation tendencies, fast convergence rate, and local optima avoidance. In optimizing the constrained engineering problems, the metaphor-free RUN demonstrated its suitable performance as well. The authors invite the community for extensive evaluations of this deep-rooted optimizer as a promising tool for real-world optimization. The source codes, supplementary materials, and guidance for the developed method will be publicly available at different hubs at http://imanahmadianfar.com and http://aliasgharheidari.com/RUN.html.
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•Chaotic maps have been embedded into Gravitational Search Algorithms (GSA) for the first time.•The problem of trapping in local minima in GSA has been improved by the chaotic ...maps.•The convergence rate of GSA has been improved.•The statistical test allowed us to judge about the significance of the results.•An adaptive normalization is proposed to smoothly transit from the exploration phase to the exploitation phase.
In a population-based meta-heuristic, the search process is divided into two main phases: exploration versus exploitation. In the exploration phase, a random behavior is fruitful to explore the search space as extensive as possible. In contrast, a fast exploitation toward the promising regions is the main objective of the latter phase. It is really challenging to find a proper balance between these two phases because of the stochastic nature of population-based meta-heuristic algorithms. The literature shows that chaotic maps are able to improve both phases. This work embeds ten chaotic maps into the gravitational constant (G) of the recently proposed population-based meta-heuristic algorithm called Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA). Also, an adaptive normalization method is proposed to transit from the exploration phase to the exploitation phase smoothly. As case studies, twelve shifted and biased benchmark functions evaluate the performance of the proposed chaos-based GSA algorithms in terms of exploration and exploitation. A statistical test called Wilcoxon rank-sum is done to judge about the significance of the results as well. The results demonstrate that sinusoidal map is the best map for improving the performance of GSA significantly.
A review on COVID-19 forecasting models Rahimi, Iman; Chen, Fang; Gandomi, Amir H.
Neural computing & applications,
11/2023, Letnik:
35, Številka:
33
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread to more than 200 countries worldwide, leading to more than 36 million confirmed cases as of October 10, 2020. As such, several machine learning models that ...can forecast the outbreak globally have been released. This work presents a review and brief analysis of the most important machine learning forecasting models against COVID-19. The work presented in this study possesses two parts. In the first section, a detailed scientometric analysis presents an influential tool for bibliometric analyses, which were performed on COVID-19 data from the Scopus and Web of Science databases. For the above-mentioned analysis, keywords and subject areas are addressed, while the classification of machine learning forecasting models, criteria evaluation, and comparison of solution approaches are discussed in the second section of the work. The conclusion and discussion are provided as the final sections of this study.
This paper proposes a novel nature-inspired meta-heuristic optimizer, called Reptile Search Algorithm (RSA), motivated by the hunting behaviour of Crocodiles. Two main steps of Crocodile behaviour ...are implemented, such as encircling, which is performed by high walking or belly walking, and hunting, which is performed by hunting coordination or hunting cooperation. The mentioned search methods of the proposed RSA are unique compared to other existing algorithms. The performance of the proposed RSA is evaluated using twenty-three classical test functions, thirty CEC2017 test functions, ten CEC2019 test functions, and seven real-world engineering problems. The obtained results of the proposed RSA are compared to various existing optimization algorithms in the literature. The results of the tested three benchmark functions revealed that the proposed RSA achieved better results than the other competitive optimization algorithms. The results of the Friedman ranking test proved that the RSA is a significantly superior method than other comparative methods. Finally, the results of the examined engineering problems showed that the RSA obtained better results compared to other various methods. Source codes of RSA are publicly available at https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/101385-reptile-search-algorithm-rsa-a-nature-inspired-optimizer
•Developed a novel optimization algorithm inspired by hunting behaviour of Reptiles (RSA).•Tested RSA against classical, CEC2017, CEC2019 test functions and engineering problems.•Compared the RSA to other well-known optimization algorithms.•Demonstrated effectiveness and superiority of the proposed RSA.
This paper presents the interior search algorithm (ISA) as a novel method for solving optimization tasks. The proposed ISA is inspired by interior design and decoration. The algorithm is different ...from other metaheuristic algorithms and provides new insight for global optimization. The proposed method is verified using some benchmark mathematical and engineering problems commonly used in the area of optimization. ISA results are further compared with well-known optimization algorithms. The results show that the ISA is efficiently capable of solving optimization problems. The proposed algorithm can outperform the other well-known algorithms. Further, the proposed algorithm is very simple and it only has one parameter to tune.
•A new idea for global optimization is proposed inspired from interior design and decoration.•Two different search mechanisms, composition optimization and mirror search, are introduced.•The algorithm has only one parameter to tune which is tuned using three different strategies.•The algorithm is used to solve several unconstrained and constrained benchmark problems.•The obtained results compared with the results of other algorithms presented in the literature.
•A novel weighted mean of vectors (INFO) is proposed for global optimization.•The performance of INFO is verified by comparison against other competitive algorithms.•INFO has faster convergence speed ...and accuracy compared with others.•INFO was validated on 48 functions and four remarkable engineering test cases.•Excellent results have been obtained in engineering experiments.
This study presents the analysis and principle of an innovative optimizer named weIghted meaN oF vectOrs (INFO) to optimize different problems. INFO is a modified weight mean method, whereby the weighted mean idea is employed for a solid structure and updating the vectors’ position using three core procedures: updating rule, vector combining, and a local search. The updating rule stage is based on a mean-based law and convergence acceleration to generate new vectors. The vector combining stage creates a combination of obtained vectors with the updating rule to achieve a promising solution. The updating rule and vector combining steps were improved in INFO to increase the exploration and exploitation capacities. Moreover, the local search stage helps this algorithm escape low-accuracy solutions and improve exploitation and convergence. The performance of INFO was evaluated in 48 mathematical test functions, and five constrained engineering test cases including optimal design of 10-reservoir system and 4-reservoir system. According to the literature, the results demonstrate that INFO outperforms other basic and advanced methods in terms of exploration and exploitation. In the case of engineering problems, the results indicate that the INFO can converge to 0.99% of the global optimum solution. Hence, the INFO algorithm is a promising tool for optimal designs in optimization problems, which stems from the considerable efficiency of this algorithm for optimizing constrained cases. The source codes of INFO algorithm are publicly available at https://imanahmadianfar.com. and https://aliasgharheidari.com/INFO.html.
This study proposes the Fire Hawk Optimizer (FHO) as a novel metaheuristic algorithm based on the foraging behavior of whistling kites, black kites and brown falcons. These birds are termed Fire ...Hawks considering the specific actions they perform to catch prey in nature, specifically by means of setting fire. Utilizing the proposed algorithm, a numerical investigation was conducted on 233 mathematical test functions with dimensions of 2–100, and 150,000 function evaluations were performed for optimization purposes. For comparison, a total of ten different classical and new metaheuristic algorithms were utilized as alternative approaches. The statistical measurements include the best, mean, median, and standard deviation of 100 independent optimization runs, while well-known statistical analyses, such as Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Wilcoxon, Mann–Whitney, Kruskal–Wallis, and Post-Hoc analysis, were also conducted. The obtained results prove that the FHO algorithm exhibits better performance than the compared algorithms from literature. In addition, two of the latest Competitions on Evolutionary Computation (CEC), such as CEC 2020 on bound constraint problems and CEC 2020 on real-world optimization problems including the well-known mechanical engineering design problems, were considered for performance evaluation of the FHO algorithm, which further demonstrated the superior capability of the optimizer over other metaheuristic algorithms in literature. The capability of the FHO is also evaluated in dealing with two of the real-size structural frames with 15 and 24 stories in which the new method outperforms the previously developed metaheuristics.
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