Background
Heart failure (HF) is a major problem in the Western world, with increasing prevalence and incidence. Because HF cannot be cured, prevention of HF is of utter importance. Calcidiol, ...calcitriol, and parathyroid hormone (PTH) have been identified as risk factors for cardiovascular disease. However, their association with new onset HF remains to be established. We investigated whether calcidiol, calcitriol, and PTH could be used to identify those subjects at risk for new onset HF, and if they had additive predictive value over established risk predictors like N‐terminal‐pro Brain‐type natriuretic peptide and highly sensitive Troponin‐T.
Methods and results
We examined 7470 HF‐free participants in Prevention of Renal and Vascular End‐stage Disease, a community‐based cohort study in Groningen, the Netherlands (latitude 53°N, mean age: 49 years, 48% male). During follow‐up time of 12.6 years (interquartile range: 12.3–12.9), 281 participants (4%) developed HF: 181 (66%) HF with reduced and 94 (34%) HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40%, and HFpEF left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50%, respectively). Mean (±SD) of calcidiol was 58 (±24) nmol/L, mean calcitriol 145 (±48) pmol/L, and median (interquartile range) PTH was 3.7 (3.0–4.6) pmol/L. Calcidiol levels were univariately associated with new onset HF hazard ratio (HR) 0.82 (95% CI 0.69–0.96), but calcitriol levels were not HR 0.85 (95% CI 0.71–1.03). PTH levels kept their predictive value after adjustment for age, sex, and day of blood withdrawal (HR 1.26 95% CI 1.04–1.53). However, in our full model this association was lost HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.92–1.32). Calcidiol, calcitriol, and PTH could not differentiate between new onset HFrEF or HFpEF.
Conclusions
After adjustment for confounding factors, a single measurement of plasma calcidiol, calcitriol, or PTH was not associated with risk of developing HF. Screening for these markers to identify subjects at risk for new onset HF cannot be advocated.
The availability of electronic health records and access to a large number of routine measurements of serum creatinine and urinary albumin enhance the possibilities for epidemiologic research in ...kidney disease. However, the frequency of health care use and laboratory testing is determined by health status and indication, imposing certain challenges when identifying patients with kidney injury or disease, when using markers of kidney function as covariates, or when evaluating kidney outcomes. Depending on the specific research question, this may influence the interpretation, generalizability, and/or validity of study results. This review illustrates the heterogeneity of working definitions of kidney disease in the scientific literature and discusses advantages and limitations of the most commonly used approaches using 3 examples. We summarize ways to identify and overcome possible biases and conclude by proposing a framework for reporting definitions of exposures and outcomes in studies of kidney disease using routinely collected health care data.
This study investigates the difference in the incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) between Flanders and the Netherlands and possible explanations for this difference.
End-stage renal disease ...incidence data were obtained from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA). Additional sources were the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) health data and the WHO Health For All database (WHO-HFA).
There is remarkable difference in incidence rate of RRT between Flanders and the Netherlands, with a higher rate in Flanders. This difference is already present in patients aged 45-64 years and increases with age, being >2-fold higher in subjects of ≥ 75 years. With respect to the renal diagnoses leading to need for RRT, a higher share of especially diabetes mellitus type 2 and renovascular disease was observed in Flanders. Remarkably, the difference in incidence rate of RRT is not associated with a difference in survival on RRT, not even in the elderly, arguing against a restricted access to RRT in the Netherlands. In the general population, the expected number of healthy life years at birth is lower in Belgium than in the Netherlands, and in Belgium, the hospital discharge rates for diabetes, acute myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accident and the number of coronary bypass procedures and percutaneous coronary interventions per capitum is higher, as is the prevalence of obesity.
Our data do not support the assumption that the differences in RRT incidence in the elderly between Flanders and the Netherlands are due to a more restricted access to RRT in the Netherlands but may be due to differences in underlying comorbidity and life style between the two populations.
We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find ...genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 × 10(-11) to 5.0 × 10(-21)). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 × 10(-6)). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation.
To evaluate the associations between adiposity measures (body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio) with decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and with all cause ...mortality.
Individual participant data meta-analysis.
Cohorts from 40 countries with data collected between 1970 and 2017.
Adults in 39 general population cohorts (n=5 459 014), of which 21 (n=594 496) had data on waist circumference; six cohorts with high cardiovascular risk (n=84 417); and 18 cohorts with chronic kidney disease (n=91 607).
GFR decline (estimated GFR decline ≥40%, initiation of kidney replacement therapy or estimated GFR <10 mL/min/1.73 m
) and all cause mortality.
Over a mean follow-up of eight years, 246 607 (5.6%) individuals in the general population cohorts had GFR decline (18 118 (0.4%) end stage kidney disease events) and 782 329 (14.7%) died. Adjusting for age, sex, race, and current smoking, the hazard ratios for GFR decline comparing body mass indices 30, 35, and 40 with body mass index 25 were 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.27), 1.69 (1.51 to 1.89), and 2.02 (1.80 to 2.27), respectively. Results were similar in all subgroups of estimated GFR. Associations weakened after adjustment for additional comorbidities, with respective hazard ratios of 1.03 (0.95 to 1.11), 1.28 (1.14 to 1.44), and 1.46 (1.28 to 1.67). The association between body mass index and death was J shaped, with the lowest risk at body mass index of 25. In the cohorts with high cardiovascular risk and chronic kidney disease (mean follow-up of six and four years, respectively), risk associations between higher body mass index and GFR decline were weaker than in the general population, and the association between body mass index and death was also J shaped, with the lowest risk between body mass index 25 and 30. In all cohort types, associations between higher waist circumference and higher waist-to-height ratio with GFR decline were similar to that of body mass index; however, increased risk of death was not associated with lower waist circumference or waist-to-height ratio, as was seen with body mass index.
Elevated body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio are independent risk factors for GFR decline and death in individuals who have normal or reduced levels of estimated GFR.
Abstract
Aims
There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention ...guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.
Methods and results
Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.
Conclusion
Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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