Summary Background On March 30, 2013, a novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus that infects human beings was identified. This virus had been detected in six provinces and municipal cities in China as of ...April 18, 2013. We correlated genomic sequences from avian influenza viruses with ecological information and did phylogenetic and coalescent analyses to extrapolate the potential origins of the virus and possible routes of reassortment events. Methods We downloaded H7N9 virus genome sequences from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database and public sequences used from the Influenza Virus Resource. We constructed phylogenetic trees and did 1000 bootstrap replicates for each tree. Two rounds of phylogenetic analyses were done. We used at least 100 closely related sequences for each gene to infer the overall topology, removed suspicious sequences from the trees, and focused on the closest clades to the novel H7N9 viruses. We compared our tree topologies with those from a bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST) analysis. We used the bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to jointly estimate phylogenies, divergence times, and other evolutionary parameters for all eight gene fragments. We used sequence alignment and homology-modelling methods to study specific mutations regarding phenotypes, specifically addressing the human receptor binding properties. Findings The novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus originated from multiple reassortment events. The HA gene might have originated from avian influenza viruses of duck origin, and the NA gene might have transferred from migratory birds infected with avian influenza viruses along the east Asian flyway. The six internal genes of this virus probably originated from two different groups of H9N2 avian influenza viruses, which were isolated from chickens. Detailed analyses also showed that ducks and chickens probably acted as the intermediate hosts leading to the emergence of this virulent H7N9 virus. Genotypic and potential phenotypic differences imply that the isolates causing this outbreak form two separate subclades. Interpretation The novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus might have evolved from at least four origins. Diversity among isolates implies that the H7N9 virus has evolved into at least two different lineages. Unknown intermediate hosts involved might be implicated, extensive global surveillance is needed, and domestic-poultry-to-person transmission should be closely watched in the future. Funding China Ministry of Science and Technology Project 973, National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Health and Family Planning Commission, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Summary Avian influenza A H5N1 viruses have caused many, typically severe, human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, no comprehensive epidemiological analysis of ...global human cases of H5N1 from 1997 to 2015 exists. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the outbreaks since November, 2014, which have the highest number of cases ever reported worldwide in a similar period. Data on individual patients were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May, 1997, and April, 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from east and southeast Asia, then to west Asia and Africa. Most cases (67·2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case-fatality risk was 483 (53·5%) of 903 cases which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November, 2014, compared with the cases beforehand, there were no significant differences in the fatality risk, history of exposure to poultry, history of patient contact, and time from onset to hospital admission in the recent cases.
Summary Background China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life ...expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations. Methods We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5–1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948 700 deaths, 774 500–1 024 600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934 000 deaths, 846 600–1 032 300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2–32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9–43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010. Interpretation The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for China's health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background Human infections with different avian influenza viruses—eg, H5N1, H9N2, and H7N9—have raised concerns about pandemic potential worldwide. We report the first human infection with a ...novel reassortant avian influenza A H10N8 virus. Methods We obtained and analysed clinical, epidemiological, and virological data from a patient from Nanchang City, China. Tracheal aspirate specimens were tested for influenza virus and other possible pathogens by RT-PCR, viral culture, and sequence analyses. A maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree was constructed. Findings A woman aged 73 years presented with fever and was admitted to hospital on Nov 30, 2013. She developed multiple organ failure and died 9 days after illness onset. A novel reassortant avian influenza A H10N8 virus was isolated from the tracheal aspirate specimen obtained from the patient 7 days after onset of illness. Sequence analyses revealed that all the genes of the virus were of avian origin, with six internal genes from avian influenza A H9N2 viruses. The aminoacid motif GlnSerGly at residues 226–228 of the haemagglutinin protein indicated avian-like receptor binding preference. A mixture of glutamic acid and lysine at residue 627 in PB2 protein—which is associated with mammalian adaptation—was detected in the original tracheal aspirate samples. The virus was sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors. Sputum and blood cultures and deep sequencing analysis indicated no co-infection with bacteria or fungi. Epidemiological investigation established that the patient had visited a live poultry market 4 days before illness onset. Interpretation The novel reassortant H10N8 virus obtained is distinct from previously reported H10N8 viruses. The virus caused human infection and could have been associated with the death of a patient. Funding Emergency Research Project on human infection with avian influenza H7N9 virus, the National Basic Research Program of China, and the National Mega-projects for Infectious Diseases.
Summary Background The avian influenza A H7N9 virus has caused infections in human beings in China since 2013. A large epidemic in 2016–17 prompted concerns that the epidemiology of the virus might ...have changed, increasing the threat of a pandemic. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, clinical severity, and time-to-event distributions of patients infected with A H7N9 in the 2016–17 epidemic compared with previous epidemics. Methods In this epidemiological study, we obtained information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A H7N9 virus infection reported in mainland China as of Feb 23, 2017, from an integrated electronic database managed by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and provincial CDCs. Every identified human case of A H7N9 virus infection was required to be reported to China CDC within 24 h via a national surveillance system for notifiable infectious diseases. We described the epidemiological characteristics across epidemics, and estimated the risk of death, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients admitted to hospital for routine clinical practice rather than for isolation purpose. We estimated the incubation periods, and time delays from illness onset to hospital admission, illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment, and hospital admission to death or discharge using survival analysis techniques. Findings Between Feb 19, 2013, and Feb 23, 2017, 1220 laboratory-confirmed human infections with A H7N9 virus were reported in mainland China, with 134 cases reported in the spring of 2013, 306 in 2013–14, 219 in 2014–15, 114 in 2015–16, and 447 in 2016–17. The 2016–17 A H7N9 epidemic began earlier, spread to more districts and counties in affected provinces, and had more confirmed cases than previous epidemics. The proportion of cases in middle-aged adults increased steadily from 41% (55 of 134) to 57% (254 of 447) from the first epidemic to the 2016–17 epidemic. Proportions of cases in semi-urban and rural residents in the 2015–16 and 2016–17 epidemics (63% 72 of 114 and 61% 274 of 447, respectively) were higher than those in the first three epidemics (39% 52 of 134, 55% 169 of 306, and 56% 122 of 219, respectively). The clinical severity of individuals admitted to hospital in the 2016–17 epidemic was similar to that in the previous epidemics. Interpretation Age distribution and case sources have changed gradually across epidemics since 2013, while clinical severity has not changed substantially. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection with A H7N9 virus. Funding The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars.
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