•We present land change scenarios for the Mediterranean driven by global change.•Yield improvements influence the expansion of rainfed and irrigated cropland.•Limiting water resources significantly ...affects modeling land system change.•Improving the state of water resources while increasing food production is possible.•Expanding the network of protected areas does not impact food production.
The Mediterranean region faces significant challenges to supply its growing population with food and living space. The region’s potential to do so in the future is even more uncertain in the light of global change effects. Climate change will impact water availability in the region, which is already limited and often used at unsustainable rates. To investigate the effects of global change and explore alternative development pathways of Mediterranean land use, we simulated two future scenarios with different land, water and biodiversity management transitions. We adopted a land systems approach, where land use and land cover are combined with data on land management, irrigation and livestock density, taking into account the characteristics of Mediterranean multifunctional landscapes, specific agricultural products, such as permanent crops, and irrigation water demands. Future land system changes were explored using the CLUMondo model for different development pathways of the region. We constrained the withdrawal of irrigation water based on existing freshwater resources. In a ‘growth’ scenario, we simulated a hypothetical future without consideration of environmental constraints and where food production and urban expansion are main priorities. The ‘sustainability’ scenario represents a future where limited water resources are extracted in a sustainable way and where areas of high biodiversity value are protected. The growth scenario projected significant intensification of land management, and loss of agro-silvo-pastoral mosaic systems. To achieve this, we calculate that the region would need to increase water withdrawal for irrigation significantly, resulting in increased pressure on freshwater resources. The sustainability scenario presents a way of increasing food production and at the same time improving the state of water resources, wetlands and traditional landscapes. Achieving this future would require improvements of yields of rain-fed systems and efficiencies of irrigated systems. The results indicate that coordinated environmental policy together with appropriate market access are needed to steer the regions land management towards a more sustainable future while ensuring food production.
Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward‐looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have ...been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land‐use and land‐cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land‐use and land‐cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward‐looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge.
Global change effects on biodiversity and human wellbeing call for improved long-term environmental data as a basis for science, policy and decision making, including increased interoperability, ...multifunctionality, and harmonization. Based on the example of two global initiatives, the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network and the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we propose merging the frameworks behind these initiatives, namely ecosystem integrity and essential biodiversity variables, to serve as an improved guideline for future site-based long-term research and monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems. We derive a list of specific recommendations of what and how to measure at a monitoring site and call for an integration of sites into co-located site networks across individual monitoring initiatives, and centered on ecosystems. This facilitates the generation of linked comprehensive ecosystem monitoring data, supports synergies in the use of costly infrastructures, fosters cross-initiative research and provides a template for collaboration beyond the ILTER and GEO BON communities.
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•Monitoring changes in biodiversity requires improved standards and frameworks.•We link the Ecosystem Integrity and Essential Biodiversity Variables frameworks.•We make recommendations for long-term monitoring variables and instrumentation.•Site-based long-term monitoring data will become more broadly applicable.•Co-located monitoring site networks will enable covering all recommended variables.
•Ecosystem services (ES) assessments should address mismatches in supply and demand.•Few studies in ES research specifically address supply and demand mismatches.•Identifying mismatches is important ...for sustainable ES management, including:•The existence of unsatisfied demand and the demand diversity across stakeholders.
Assessments and sustainable management of ecosystem services (ES) require an understanding of both ES supply and demand qualities, quantities, spatial scales and dynamics. Mismatches, i.e., differences in quality or quantity between the supply and demand of ES, can occur in many different forms. Being able to identify these mismatches and their nature is of prime importance for informing governance and management decisions. This manuscript explores which mismatches can be detected by current ES supply and demand assessments and which mismatches currently remain unidentified.
An analytic framework was developed comprised of five interlinked components of ES supply and demand linking nature and society (i.e., potential supply, managed supply, match, demand, and interests). This framework was used to examine 11 recent papers, which applied ES assessments to both ES supply and demand, to determine which mismatches were or could be identified and which mismatches remained unidentified.
The selected papers typically used multiple methods in their assessments to capture supply and demand components. The found diversity in methods and the inclusion of temporal and spatial dimensions, and the existence of multiple stakeholder groups allowed for the assessments to identify several mismatches, but also lead to differences in the discriminative capacity of the assessments between the selected papers. The mismatch that was most often included in the assessments was Unsatisfied demand, whereas the least included mismatch was Unsustainable uptake. The mismatches caused by differing spatial patterns were most often identified, whereas the existence of mismatches among different stakeholder groups was least often detected in the assessment methods.
Three options emerged that could further strengthen the discriminative capacity of ES supply and demand assessments to inform sustainable ES governance and management decisions: (i) include multiple stakeholders groups and the diversification of their roles and demands; (ii) acknowledge that ES supply is not only determined by the bio-geophysical conditions, but also determined by the ES demand by society, in terms of their quantity, quality and location, as well as by the applied management; (iii) include temporal and spatial scale sensitivity into the discriminative capacity of assessment methods to allow for a better identification which institutional structures could most effectively act upon them.
1. There is a high demand for biodiversity observation data to inform conservation and environmental policy, and citizen scientists generate the vast majority of terrestrial biodiversity ...observations. As this work is voluntary, many people assume that these data are openly available for use in conservation and scientific research. 2. Here, the openness of biodiversity observation data that are contributed to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility is examined by the data provider. Contrary to what many people assume, data sets from volunteers are among the most restrictive in how they can be used. 3. Policy implications. The assumption that voluntary data collection leads to data sharing does not recognize the wishes and motivations of those who collect data, nor does it respect the crucial contributions of these data to long-term monitoring of biodiversity trends. To improve data openness, citizen scientists should be recognized in ways that correspond with their motivations. Furthermore, organizations that manage these data should make their data sharing policies open and explicit.
1. Political commitment and policy instruments to halt biodiversity loss require robust data and a diverse indicator set to monitor and report on biodiversity trends. Gaps in data availability and ...narrow-based indicator sets are significant information barriers to fulfilling these needs. 2. In this paper, the reporting requirements of seven global or European biodiversity policy instruments were reviewed using the list of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as an analytical framework. The reporting requirements for the most comprehensive policy instrument, the United Nation's Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020, were compared with the indicator set actually used for its reporting, to identify current information gaps. To explore the extent to which identified gaps could be bridged, the potential contribution of data mobilization, modelling and further processing of existing data was assessed. 3. The information gaps identified demonstrate that decision-makers are currently constrained by the lack of data and indicators on changes in the EBV classes Genetic Composition and, to a lesser extent, Species Populations for which data is most often available. Furthermore, the results show that even when there is a requirement for specific information for reporting, the indicators used may not be able to provide all the information, for example current Convention of Biological Diversity indicators provide relatively little information on changes in the Ecosystem Function and Ecosystem Structure classes. This gap could be partly closed by using existing indicators as proxies, whereas additional indicators may be computed based on available data (e.g. for EBVs in the Ecosystem Structure class). However, for the EBV class Genetic Composition, no immediate improvement based on proxies or existing data seems possible. 4. Synthesis and applications. Using Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as a tool, theorydriven comparisons could be made between the biodiversity information gaps in reporting and indicator sets. Analytical properties, such as an identification of which data and indicator (s) are relevant per EBV, will need to be addressed before EBVs can actually become operational and facilitate the integration of data flows for monitoring and reporting. In the meantime, a first analysis shows that existing indicators and available data offer considerable potential for bridging the identified information gaps.
Mediterranean wetlands are critical strongholds for biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem functions and services; yet, they are being severely degraded by a number of socio-economic drivers and ...pressures, including climate change. Moreover, we still lack comprehensive understanding of the extent to which biodiversity loss in Mediterranean wetlands will accelerate change in ecosystem processes. Here, we evaluate how changes in biodiversity can alter the ecosystem of the Camargue (southern France). We collected data on species presence/absence, trends and abundance over a 40-year period by combining observations from the scholarly literature with insights derived from expert knowledge. In total, we gathered more than 1500 estimates of presence/absence, over 1400 estimates of species abundance, and about 1400 estimates of species trends for eight taxonomic groups, i.e. amphibians, reptiles, breeding birds, fish, mammals, dragonflies (odonates), orthopterans and vascular plants. Furthermore, we used information on recently arrived species and invasive species to identify compositional changes across multiple taxa. Complementing targeted literature searches with expert knowledge allowed filling important gaps regarding the status and trends of biodiversity in the Camargue. Species trend data revealed sharp population declines in amphibians, odonates and orthopterans, while birds and plants experienced an average increase in abundance between the 1970s and the 2010s. The general increasing trends of novel and invasive species is suggested as an explanation for the changing abundance of birds and plants. While the observed declines in certain taxa reflect the relative failure of the protection measures established in the Camargue, the increasing exposure to novel and invasive species reveal major changes in the community structure of the different taxonomic groups. This study is the first attempt to assess changes in biodiversity in the Camargue using an expert knowledge approach, and can help manage the uncertainties and complexities associated with rapid social-ecological change in other Mediterranean wetlands.
•Global monitoring of how healthy ecosystems support thriving communities is needed.•Essential Ecosystem Service Variables (EESVs) can track changes in human-nature interactions.•Six complementary ...EESV classes provide an encompassing picture of these linkages.•Proof-of-concept testing of EESV classes confirms their readiness for monitoring.•EESVs will track progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
Global frameworks to guide consistent monitoring of changes in human–nature interactions across space and time are needed to better understand how healthy ecosystems support societies and to inform policy design. Monitoring Essential Ecosystem Service Variables (EESVs) can provide a comprehensive picture of how links between nature and people are changing. A first proposed set of EESV classes comprises: ecological supply, anthropogenic contribution, demand, use, instrumental values, and relational values. Development of specific indicators of these classes for three exemplary ecosystem services (food from fisheries, crop pollination and wildlife viewing) confirms their readiness for global operationalization. The EESV classes will advance our ability to monitor progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
In the Mediterranean region, the long-term provision of agro-ecosystem services is threatened by accelerating climate change, unsustainable farming practices, and other pressures. Alternative ...management practices such as conservation agriculture could be expected to ensure sustainability of ecosystem services from Mediterranean agro-ecosystems. Conservation agriculture is characterized by minimal soil disturbance, permanent soil cover, and diversification of crop species. We analyzed the impacts of several forms of alternative agricultural management practices (conservation tillage, cover cropping, mulching, manual weed management, organic fertilizer use, no-irrigation system) on multiple ecosystem services based on 155 published case studies (1994–2015). The effect size of various management options on four provisioning and four regulating ecosystem services were quantified. Impacts of conservation management options are not uniform. All regulating services were positively affected by the conservation management options except for the system without irrigation. In contrast, the provisioning services were inconsistently influenced by the conservation management options. For crop yield, environmentally sustainable soil management was beneficial, but organic fertilization (effect size = − 0.17), manual weed management (effect size = − 0.35), and no-irrigation system (effect size = − 0.5) led to lower crop yields. The impact on crop biomass was mainly negative but not significant. Water availability was especially important to enhance both provisioning and regulating services. Overall, alternative agriculture management practices led to more positive than negative effects on ecosystem services in the study region. Stimulating the application of conservation management practices is therefore an important policy option for decision-makers given the vulnerability of ecosystem services in the Mediterranean basin.
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