Coronal heating through the explosive release of magnetic energy remains an open problem in solar physics. Recent hydrodynamical models attempt an investigation by placing swarms of 'nanoflares' at ...random sites and times in modeled one-dimensional coronal loops. We investigate the problem in three dimensions, using extrapolated coronal magnetic fields of observed solar active regions. We apply a nonlinear force-free field extrapolation above an observed photospheric magnetogram of NOAA active region (AR) 11158. We then determine the locations, energy contents, and volumes of 'unstable' areas, namely areas prone to releasing magnetic energy due to locally accumulated electric current density. Statistical distributions of these volumes and their fractal dimension are inferred, investigating also their dependence on spatial resolution. Further adopting a simple resistivity model, we infer the properties of the fractally distributed electric fields in these volumes. Next, we monitor the evolution of 10^5 particles (electrons and ions) obeying an initial Maxwellian distribution with a temperature of 10 eV, by following their trajectories and energization when subjected to the resulting electric fields. For computational convenience, the length element of the magnetic-field extrapolation is 1 arcsec, much coarser than the particles collisional mean free path in the low corona. The presence of collisions traps the bulk of the plasma around the unstable volumes, or current sheets (UCS), with only a tail of the distribution gaining substantial energy. Assuming that the distance between UCS is similar to the collisional mean free path we find that the low active-region corona is heated to 100-200 eV, corresponding to temperatures exceeding 2 MK, within tens of seconds for electrons and thousands of seconds for ions. Fractally distributed, nanoflare-triggening fragmented UCS ...
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental ...Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies.
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar ...physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.
We study the writhe, twist and magnetic helicity of different magnetic flux ropes, based on models of the solar coronal magnetic field structure. These include an analytical force-free ...Titov--Démoulin equilibrium solution, non force-free magnetohydrodynamic simulations, and nonlinear force-free magnetic field models. The geometrical boundary of the magnetic flux rope is determined by the quasi-separatrix layer and the bottom surface, and the axis curve of the flux rope is determined by its overall orientation. The twist is computed by the Berger--Prior formula that is suitable for arbitrary geometry and both force-free and non-force-free models. The magnetic helicity is estimated by the twist multiplied by the square of the axial magnetic flux. We compare the obtained values with those derived by a finite volume helicity estimation method. We find that the magnetic helicity obtained with the twist method agrees with the helicity carried by the purely current-carrying part of the field within uncertainties for most test cases. It is also found that the current-carrying part of the model field is relatively significant at the very location of the magnetic flux rope. This qualitatively explains the agreement between the magnetic helicity computed by the twist method and the helicity contributed purely by the current-carrying magnetic field.
Reconstruction of large bony defects of long bones was performed using vascularised fibular grafts in four patients at the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery of the University of Ioannina Medical ...School. Indications for grafting procedures in this small series had been the loss of bone due to the extensive resection of avascular and necrotic bone from septic pseudoarthrosis in three patients and congenital pseudarthrosis secondary to neurofibromatosis in a child. Primary skeletal union with graft hypertrophy occurred in three of the patients. The fourth patient had an asymptomatic nonunion at the proximal end of the graft. The result in each patient was the presence of a well-aligned limb that had normal or nearly normal motion and acceptable length.
Yes
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October – 02 November;
2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth ...Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today’s operational solar flare forecasting facilities.;
Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019);
we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on;
the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad;
implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the;
small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to;
improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human;
“forecaster in the loop”; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3);
may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern;
data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be;
viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this;
present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal;
patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al.;
2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive;
methodologies.
We wish to acknowledge funding from the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University for supporting the workshop and its participants. We would also like to acknowledge the “big picture” perspective brought by Dr. M. Leila Mays during her participation in the workshop. K.D.L. and G.B. acknowledge that the DAFFS and DAFFS-G tools were developed under NOAA SBIR contracts WC-133R-13-CN-0079 (Phase-I) and WC-133R-14-CN-0103 (PhaseII) with additional support from Lockheed-Martin Space Systems contract #4103056734 for Solar-B FPP Phase E support. A.E.McC. was supported by an Irish Research Council Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship. D.S.B. and M.K.G were supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 640216 (FLARECAST project; http://flarecast.eu). MKG also acknowledges research performed under the A-EFFort project and subsequent service implementation, supported under ESA Contract number 4000111994/14/D/ MPR. S. A. M. is supported by the Irish Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme and the US Air Force Office of Scientific Research award FA9550-17-1-039. The operational Space Weather services of ROB/SIDC are partially funded through the STCE, a collaborative framework funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office.
No
A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe ...the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.
