The China-India border is the longest disputed border in the world. The countries went to war in 1962 and there have been recurring border skirmishes ever since. Reports of Chinese incursions into ...Indian territory are now a frequent occurrence. This rising tension between the world’s most populous countries not only poses risks for global security and the world economy, but also has a negative impact on the unique ecology of the Himalayas, because of the expanding military infrastructure. We have assembled a unique data set of the dates and locations of the major incursions over the past 15 years. We find that the conflict can be separated into two independent conflicts, the western and eastern sectors. The incursions in these sectors are statistically independent. However, major incidents do lead to an increased tension that persists for years all along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC). This leads us to conclude that an agreement on the exact location of a limited number of contested regions, such as the Doklam plateau on the China-Bhutan border, has the potential to significantly defuse the conflict, and could potentially settle the dispute at a further date. Building on insights from game theory, we find that the Chinese incursions in the west are strategically planned and may aim for a more permanent control over specific contested areas. This finding is in agreement with other studies into the expansionist strategy of the current Chinese government.
Abstract
Influence, the ability to change the beliefs and behaviors of others, is the main currency on social media. Extant studies of influence on social media, however, are limited by publicly ...available data that record expressions (active engagement of users with content, such as likes and comments), but neglect impressions (exposure to content, such as views) and lack “ground truth” measures of influence. To overcome these limitations, we implemented a social media simulation using an original, web-based micro-blogging platform. We propose three influence models, leveraging expressions and impressions to create a more complete picture of social influence. We demonstrate that impressions are much more important drivers of influence than expressions, and our models accurately identify the most influential accounts in our simulation. Impressions data also allow us to better understand important social media dynamics, including the emergence of small numbers of influential accounts and the formation of opinion echo chambers.
Abstract
Since the 1960s China and India have engaged in a dispute about the demarcation of their shared border. This territorial dispute led to a brief war in 1962, and recurring flare-ups over the ...following decades, including during the summer of 2020. The potential for further escalation of this dispute poses significant risks to Indian and Chinese civilians, US foreign policy objectives, and the stability of the international economic system. Despite the importance of this dispute, there have been relatively few attempts to understand the correlates of Chinese incursions. This paper addresses this important question by leveraging past work on the study of conflicts between states to derive a set of testable explanations about the impact of China–India relations, internal political affairs, international political issues, and domestic economic factors on the likelihood of incursions. The study uses 15 years of original data on monthly Chinese incursions into India along with a monthly dataset containing 18 independent variables, to develop a detailed statistical understanding of the factors that trigger Chinese incursions across the Indian border with a lead time between 1 and 6 months. The quantitative study finds that Chinese incursions are more likely when Chinese leadership is early in their tenure, but more likely when Indian leadership is in the later stages of their tenure. The results also show that closer cooperation between India and the US may trigger additional Chinese incursions into India. Finally, lower consumer confidence in the Chinese economy is consistently related to an increased likelihood of incursions. These findings have implications for the maintenance of peace and India’s national security policies. Periods of Chinese uncertainty, particularly when their economy exhibits weakness and when Chinese leaders are in the early stages of their tenure are more likely to experience incursions. Further, the strengthening of the US–Indian alliance, as well as increased conflict between India and Pakistan, create the potential for an elevated risk of incursions. During these periods India should likely be on higher alert, while India and Indian allies should signal the importance of diplomatic solutions for the dispute.
The authors sought to achieve an improved understanding of the diagnosis of oppositional defiant disorder independent of its association with conduct disorder.
Family interactions, social ...functioning, and psychiatric comorbidity were compared in clinically referred male and female subjects with oppositional defiant disorder alone (N=643) or with comorbid conduct disorder (N=262) and a psychiatric comparison group with neither oppositional defiant disorder nor conduct disorder (N=695).
Oppositional defiant disorder youth with or without conduct disorder were found to have significantly higher rates of comorbid psychiatric disorders and significantly greater family and social dysfunction relative to psychiatric comparison subjects. Differences between subjects with oppositional defiant disorder alone and those with comorbid conduct disorder were seen primarily in rates of mood disorders and social impairment. Oppositional defiant disorder was a significant correlate of adverse family and social outcomes when comorbid disorders (including conduct disorder) were controlled.
These results support the validity of the oppositional defiant disorder diagnosis as a meaningful clinical entity independent of conduct disorder and highlight the extremely detrimental effects of oppositional defiant disorder on multiple domains of functioning in children and adolescents.
Introduction: The majority of venomous snake exposures in the United States are due to snakes from the subfamily Crotalinae (pit vipers). There are three types of US pit vipers: rattlesnakes ...(Crotalus and Sisturus spp.) copperheads (Agkistrodon contortrix), and cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) also known as water moccasins. Cottonmouth bites are reported less frequently than other pit viper envenomations, and data on cottonmouth envenomation are limited. Our objective was to describe the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and management of cottonmouth envenomations using prospective data reported to the Toxicology Investigators Consortium's (ToxIC) North American Snakebite Registry (NASBR)
Methods: Cottonmouth envenomation cases reported to NASBR for the period from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2017 were reviewed. Variables collected included patient demographics, bite location, clinical manifestations, and management.
Results: Thirty-one cottonmouth envenomations were reported. Most bites occurred in children aged 7-12 (39%). Most bites involved the lower extremity (72%). Intentional interaction with the snake occurred in three cases (10%). Swelling was the most reported clinical effect and occurred in all patients. Gastrointestinal symptoms were reported in 19% of patients, and 19% developed coagulopathy. Antivenom treatment was used in 84% of patients. Nineteen patients (61%) required hospital stays of >24 hours.
Discussion: Our study represents the first systematic prospective data collection on cottonmouth bites. Our data demonstrate that cottonmouth envenomations cause primarily local effects and, occasionally, systemic toxicity. Our study also demonstrates that antivenom is often indicated for these envenomations per published guidelines and recommendations.
Conclusions: Cottonmouth envenomations are relatively infrequent. However, they can cause significant local and systemic toxicity. Most cottonmouth envenomations in this series were treated with antivenom and were hospitalized beyond 24 hours.
Without measures of the lethality of terrorist networks, it is very difficult to assess if capturing or killing a terrorist is effective. We present the predictive lethality analysis of terrorist ...organization (PLATO) algorithm, which merges machine learning with techniques from graph theory and social network analysis to predict the number of attacks that a terrorist network will carry out based on a network structure alone. We show that PLATO is highly accurate on two novel datasets, which cover Al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (ISIS). Using both machine learning and statistical methods, we show that the most significant macrofeatures for predicting AQ's lethality are related to their public communications (PCs) and logistical subnetworks, while the leadership and operational subnetworks are most impactful for predicting ISISs lethality. Across both groups, the average degree and the diameters of the strongly connected components (SCCs) within these networks are strongly linked with lethality.
During cortical development, embryonic neurons migrate from germinal zones near the ventricle into the cortical plate, where they organize into layers. Mechanisms that direct neuronal migration may ...include molecules that act as chemoattractants. In rats, GABA, which localizes near the target destination for migrating cortical neurons, stimulates embryonic neuronal migration in vitro. In mice, glutamate is highly localized near the target destinations for migrating cortical neurons. Glutamate-induced migration of murine embryonic cortical cells was evaluated in cell dissociates and cortical slice cultures. In dissociates, the chemotropic effects of glutamate were 10-fold greater than the effects of GABA, demonstrating that for murine cortical cells, glutamate is a more potent chemoattractant than GABA. Thus, cortical chemoattractants appear to differ between species. Micromolar glutamate stimulated neuronal chemotaxis that was mimicked by microM NMDA but not by other ionotropic glutamate receptor agonists (AMPA, kainate, quisqualate). Responding cells were primarily derived from immature cortical regions ventricular zone (vz)/subventricular zone (svz). Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) pulse labeling of cortical slices cultured in NMDA antagonists (microM MK801 or APV) revealed that antagonist exposure blocked the migration of BrdU-positive cells from the vz/svz into the cortical plate. PCR confirmed the presence of NMDA receptor expression in vz/svz cells, whereas electrophysiology and Ca2+ imaging demonstrated that vz/svz cells exhibited physiological responses to NMDA. These studies indicate that, in mice, glutamate may serve as a chemoattractant for neurons in the developing cortex, signaling cells to migrate into the cortical plate via NMDA receptor activation.
Studies of surface dynamics, including the kinetics of two-dimensional (2D) island coarsening/decay, shape fluctuations, and shape evolution, enable determination of the rate-limiting mechanisms, ...corresponding surface mass transport parameters, and step energies. Most models describing these phenomena assume isotropic (circular) or near-isotropic island shapes and, hence, isotropic step energies. However, even simple elemental metal surfaces are anisotropic and more complex compound surfaces such as the low-index planes of TiN, GaAs, GaN, ZnO, Al
2O
3, ZrO
2, are highly anisotropic. Here, we describe recent progress toward developing generalized theoretical and experimental approaches, applicable for analyses of 2D island coarsening/decay kinetics, coalescence kinetics, and determination of orientation-dependent step energies and step stiffnesses, on both isotropic and highly anisotropic surfaces.
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