Abstract Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used ...mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was $$R=1.49$$ R = 1.49 (95% credible interval $$({{{\mathrm{0.67,2.81}}})$$ ( 0.67, 2.81 ) ). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT’s measures were effective. We also estimated the risk of withdrawing the ERT in real-time. By the actual ERT withdrawal date (2 July 2017), the risk of future cases without the ERT was only 0.01, indicating that the ERT withdrawal decision was safe. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to the estimated $$R$$ R value and considered different criteria for determining the ERT withdrawal date. This research provides an extensible modelling framework that can be used to guide decisions about when to relax interventions during future outbreaks.
Aims
This study aimed to investigate the fate of Bacillus clausii spores orally administered as lyophilized or liquid formulation to healthy volunteers.
Methods and Results
The study was a ...randomized, open‐label, cross‐over trial in which two commercial probiotic formulations containing spores of four antibiotic‐resistant B. clausii strains (OC, NR, SIN, T) were given as a single dose administration. Faecal B. clausii units of each strain were counted on selective media and extrapolated for the total weight of evacuated faeces. RAPD‐PCR typing was used to confirm B. clausii identification. Bacillus clausii was found alive in faeces for up to 12 days. In some volunteers, the recovered amount of OC, NR or SIN was higher than the number of administered spores. Bioequivalence among the two formulations was demonstrated.
Conclusions
Bacillus clausii spores survive transit through the human gastrointestinal tract. They can undergo germination, outgrowth and multiplication as vegetative forms. Bacillus clausii strains can have different ability to survive in the intestinal environment. Bacillus clausii spores administered as liquid suspension or lyophilized form behave similarly in vivo.
Significance and impact of the study
This work contributes towards a better understanding of the behaviour of B. clausii spores as probiotics.
The aim of this work is to define over the period 1979-2002 the main synoptic weather regimes relevant for understanding the daily variability of rainfall during the summer monsoon season over ...Senegal. “Pure” synoptic weather regimes are defined by removing the influence of seasonal and interannual time scales, in order to highlight the day by day variability of the atmospheric circulation. The Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) approach, a clustering methodology based on non-linear artificial neural network, is combined with a Hierarchical Ascendant Classification to compute these regimes. Nine weather regimes are identified using the mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind field as variables, and gathered into three classes. Two of these weather regimes represent the classical 3-5-day African easterly waves with a mean wavelength of about 3,000 km. Three others are characterized by a modulation of the semi-permanent trough located along the western coast of West Africa and might be interpreted in terms of the 6-9-day easterly waves. The last four weather regimes are characterized by a more or less strong north-south dipole of circulation. They can be interpreted as a northward/southward displacement of the Saharan Heat Low for two of them, and a filling/deepening of this depression for the other two. The circulation patterns of all these nine weather regimes are very consistent with the associated anomaly patterns of precipitable water, mid-troposphere vertical velocity, outgoing longwave radiation, and finally rainfall. Rainfall distribution is also highlighted over the southwestern area of Senegal.
The aim of this work is to define over the period 1979–2002 the main synoptic weather regimes relevant for understanding the daily variability of rainfall during the summer monsoon season over ...Senegal. “Interannual” synoptic weather regimes are defined by removing the influence of the mean 1979–2002 seasonal cycle. This is different from Part I where the seasonal evolution of each year was removed, then removing also the contribution of interannual variability. As in Part I, the self-organizing maps approach, a clustering methodology based on non-linear artificial neural network, is combined with a hierarchical ascendant classification to compute these regimes. Nine weather regimes are identified using the mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind field as variables. The composite circulation patterns of all these nine weather regimes are very consistent with the associated anomaly patterns of precipitable water, mid-troposphere vertical velocity and rainfall. They are also consistent with the distribution of rainfall extremes. These regimes have been then gathered into different groups. A first group of four regimes is included in an inner circuit and is characterized by a modulation of the semi-permanent trough located along the western coast of West Africa and an opposite modulation on the east. This circuit is important because it associates the two wettest and highly persistent weather regimes over Senegal with the driest and the most persistent one. One derivation of this circuit is highlighted, including the two driest regimes and the most persistent one, what can provide important dry sequences occurrence. An exit of this circuit is characterised by a filling of the Saharan heat low. An entry into the main circuit includes a southward location of the Saharan heat low followed by its deepening. The last weather regime is isolated from the other ones and it has no significant impact on Senegal. It is present in June and September, and missing in July and August, meaning that this is a weather regime more specific of the intermediate seasons than the summer. It is included in a large-scale pattern covering the northern latitudes of Europe. The correspondence between these “interannual” synoptic weather regimes and the “pure” synoptic regimes defined in Part I has been established. By selecting a high statistical significance level for these correspondences, each of five out of nine “interannual” weather regimes has a close correspondence with one “pure” synoptic weather regime, one out of them have links with two “pure” regimes, and the last three regimes have no significant correspondence in terms of “pure” regimes. However when considering more moderate links, two out of these three regimes show a connection with a “pure” regime, and the last one remains isolated. The ensemble of the weather regimes occurrences can explain a significant part of interannual variability of summer rainfall amount over Senegal, especially linked to the driest and the wettest weather regimes occurrences. It is also shown that Senegal rainfall state is very sensitive to a small displacement or deformation of the weather regime patterns.
Plasmodium vivax in southern Mexico exhibits different infectivities to 2 local mosquito vectors, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis and Anopheles albimanus. Previous work has tied these differences in ...mosquito infectivity to variation in the central repeat motif of the malaria parasite's circumsporozoite (csp) gene, but subsequent studies have questioned this view. Here we present evidence that P. vivax in southern Mexico comprised 3 genetic populations whose distributions largely mirror those of the 2 mosquito vectors. Additionally, laboratory colony feeding experiments indicate that parasite populations are most compatible with sympatric mosquito species. Our results suggest that reciprocal selection between malaria parasites and mosquito vectors has led to local adaptation of the parasite. Adaptation to local vectors may play an important role in generating population structure in Plasmodium. A better understanding of coevolutionary dynamics between sympatric mosquitoes and parasites will facilitate the identification of molecular mechanisms relevant to disease transmission in nature and provide crucial information for malaria control.
Post debt relief, the number of African countries considering accessing international capital markets, often to fund large infrastructure projects, is increasing. Potential risks of capital inflows ...are well known but the literature offers little help to estimate the cost of borrowing internationally for the first time. This article proposes a two-step approach to estimate the sovereign credit rating and interest rate cost of a country considering borrowing externally. Estimates can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different financing options. The method can also be used to construct foreign currency as well as domestic local currency yield curves.
Mycetoma is transmitted by thorns infected. The commonest site for mycetoma is the foot. The primary pulmonary are rare and usually secondary to other primary site. We report a case of pulmonary ...fungal mycetoma secondary to primary site in the knee. We do a review of the literature and we discuss the way of dissemination.
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