ABSTRACT Decade-long timing observations of arrays of millisecond pulsars have placed highly constraining upper limits on the amplitude of the nanohertz gravitational-wave stochastic signal from the ...mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (∼10−15 strain at f = 1 yr−1). These limits suggest that binary merger rates have been overestimated, or that environmental influences from nuclear gas or stars accelerate orbital decay, reducing the gravitational-wave signal at the lowest, most sensitive frequencies. This prompts the question whether nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs) are likely to be detected in the near future. In this Letter, we answer this question quantitatively using simple statistical estimates, deriving the range of true signal amplitudes that are compatible with current upper limits, and computing expected detection probabilities as a function of observation time. We conclude that small arrays consisting of the pulsars with the least timing noise, which yield the tightest upper limits, have discouraging prospects of making a detection in the next two decades. By contrast, we find large arrays are crucial to detection because the quadrupolar spatial correlations induced by GWs can be well sampled by many pulsar pairs. Indeed, timing programs that monitor a large and expanding set of pulsars have an ∼80% probability of detecting GWs within the next 10 years, under assumptions on merger rates and environmental influences ranging from optimistic to conservative. Even in the extreme case where 90% of binaries stall before merger and environmental coupling effects diminish low-frequency gravitational-wave power, detection is delayed by at most a few years.
We have searched for continuous gravitational wave (CGW) signals produced by individually resolvable, circular supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the latest European Pulsar Timing Array ...(EPTA) data set, which consists of ultraprecise timing data on 41-ms pulsars. We develop frequentist and Bayesian detection algorithms to search both for monochromatic and frequency-evolving systems. None of the adopted algorithms show evidence for the presence of such a CGW signal, indicating that the data are best described by pulsar and radiometer noise only. Depending on the adopted detection algorithm, the 95 per cent upper limit on the sky-averaged strain amplitude lies in the range ... This limit varies by a factor of five, depending on the assumed source position and the most constraining limit is achieved towards the positions of the most sensitive pulsars in the timing array. The most robust upper limit - obtained via a full Bayesian analysis searching simultaneously over the signal and pulsar noise on the subset of ours six best pulsars -- is ... These limits, the most stringent to date at f < 10...nHz, exclude the presence of sub-centiparsec binaries with chirp mass ... out to a distance of about 25 Mpc, and with ... out to a distance of about 1Gpc (...). We show that state-of-the-art SMBHB population models predict <1 per cent probability of detecting a CGW with the current EPTA data set, consistent with the reported non-detection. We stress, however, that PTA limits on individual CGW have improved by almost an order of magnitude in the last five years. The continuing advances in pulsar timing data acquisition and analysis techniques will allow for strong astrophysical constraints on the population of nearby SMBHBs in the coming years. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae/symbols omitted.)
We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released 11 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). ...While we find no evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, a network of decaying cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB constraints are sensitive to the solar system ephemeris (SSE) model used and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first pulsar-timing array (PTA) constraints that are robust against SSE errors. We thus place a 95% upper limit on the GW-strain amplitude of AGWB < 1.45 × 10−15 at a frequency of f = 1 yr−1 for a fiducial f−2/3 power-law spectrum and with interpulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of ∼2 improvement over the NANOGrav nine-year limit calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB (as well as their astrophysical and cosmological interpretations) will need revision in light of SSE systematic errors. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH-galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain the cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit of G < 5.3 × 10−11-a factor of ∼2 better than the published NANOGrav nine-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation universe) is GWB(f) h2 < 3.4 × 10−10.
Direct detection of low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs,
Hz) is the main goal of pulsar timing array (PTA) projects. One of the main targets for the PTAs is to measure the stochastic background of ...gravitational waves (GWB) whose characteristic strain is expected to approximately follow a power-law of the form
, where f is the GW frequency. In this paper we use the current data from the European PTA to determine an upper limit on the GWB amplitude A as a function of the unknown spectral slope α with a Bayesian algorithm, by modelling the GWB as a random Gaussian process. For the case α=−2/3, which is expected if the GWB is produced by supermassive black hole binaries, we obtain a 95 per cent confidence upper limit on A of 6 × 10−15, which is 1.8 times lower than the 95 per cent confidence GWB limit obtained by the Parkes PTA in 2006. Our approach to the data analysis incorporates the multitelescope nature of the European PTA and thus can serve as a useful template for future intercontinental PTA collaborations.
The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) promise to be incredible sources of gravitational waves (GWs). While the oscillatory part of the merger gravitational waveform will be outside ...the frequency sensitivity range of pulsar timing arrays, the nonoscillatory GW memory effect is detectable. Further, any burst of GWs will produce GW memory, making memory a useful probe of unmodeled exotic sources and new physics. We searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11 yr data set for GW memory. This data set is sensitive to very low-frequency GWs of ∼3 to 400 nHz (periods of ∼11 yr-1 month). Finding no evidence for GWs, we placed limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events during the observation period. We then used the strain upper limits to place limits on the rate of GW memory causing events. At a strain of 2.5 × 10−14, corresponding to the median upper limit as a function of source sky position, we set a limit on the rate of GW memory events at <0.4 yr−1. That strain corresponds to an SMBHB merger with reduced mass of M ∼ 2 × 1010 and inclination of = π/3 at a distance of 1 Gpc. As a test of our analysis, we analyzed the NANOGrav 9 yr data set as well. This analysis found an anomolous signal, which does not appear in the 11 yr data set. This signal is not a GW, and its origin remains unknown.
ABSTRACT We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for ...Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr−1) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A gw < 1.5 × 10 − 15 . We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, gw ( f ) h 2 < 4.2 × 10 − 10 . Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, gw ( f ) h 2 < 2.2 × 10 − 10 , translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with G < 3.3 × 10 − 8 , a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.
The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses' times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of ...Earth's position with respect to the solar system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar-timing arrays. Indeed, recent array data sets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article, we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiter's orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar-timing arrays. This model, BayesEphem, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGrav's 11 yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11 yr data set and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with pulsar-timing data sets that extend well beyond a single Jovian orbital period.
In order to reach the sensitivity required to detect gravitational waves, pulsar timing array experiments need to mitigate as much noise as possible in timing data. A dominant amount of noise is ...likely due to variations in the dispersion measure. To correct for such variations, we develop a statistical method inspired by the maximum likelihood estimator and optimal filtering. Our method consists of two major steps. First, the spectral index and amplitude of dispersion measure variations are measured via a time-domain spectral analysis. Second, the linear optimal filter is constructed based on the model parameters found in the first step, and is used to extract the dispersion measure variation waveforms. Compared to current existing methods, this method has better time resolution for the study of short time-scale dispersion variations, and generally produces smaller errors in waveform estimations. This method can process irregularly sampled data without any interpolation because of its time-domain nature. Furthermore, it offers the possibility to interpolate or extrapolate the waveform estimation to regions where no data are available. Examples using simulated data sets are included for demonstration.
We report on the high-precision timing of 42 radio millisecond pulsars (MSPs) observed by the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). This EPTA Data Release 1.0 extends up to mid-2014 and baselines ...range from 7–18 yr. It forms the basis for the stochastic gravitational-wave background, anisotropic background, and continuous-wave limits recently presented by the EPTA elsewhere. The Bayesian timing analysis performed with temponest
yields the detection of several new parameters: seven parallaxes, nine proper motions and, in the case of six binary pulsars, an apparent change of the semimajor axis. We find the NE2001 Galactic electron density model to be a better match to our parallax distances (after correction from the Lutz–Kelker bias) than the M2 and M3 models by Schnitzeler. However, we measure an average uncertainty of 80 per cent (fractional) for NE2001, three times larger than what is typically assumed in the literature. We revisit the transverse velocity distribution for a set of 19 isolated and 57 binary MSPs and find no statistical difference between these two populations. We detect Shapiro delay in the timing residuals of PSRs J1600−3053 and J1918−0642, implying pulsar and companion masses
$m_{\rm p}=1.22_{-0.35}^{+0.5}\ {\rm M}_{{\odot }}$
,
$m_{\rm c} = 0.21_{-0.04}^{+0.06}\ {\rm M}_{{\odot } }$
and
$m_{\rm p}=1.25_{-0.4}^{+0.6}\ {\rm M}_{{\odot }}$
,
$m_{\rm c} = 0.23_{-0.05}^{+0.07}\ {\rm M}_{{\odot } }$
, respectively. Finally, we use the measurement of the orbital period derivative to set a stringent constraint on the distance to PSRs J1012+5307 and J1909−3744, and set limits on the longitude of ascending node through the search of the annual-orbital parallax for PSRs J1600−3053 and J1909−3744.
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