The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year ...fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve AUC = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.
Missing data are pervasive in risk assessment but their impact on predictive accuracy has largely been unexplored. Common techniques for handling missing risk data include summing available items or ...proration; however, multiple imputation is a more defensible approach that has not been methodically tested against these simpler techniques. We compared the validity of these three missing data techniques across six conditions using STABLE-2007 (
= 4,286) and SARA-V2 (
= 455) assessments from men on community supervision in Canada. Condition 1 was the observed data (low missingness), and Conditions 2 to 6 were generated missing data conditions, whereby 1% to 50% of items per case were randomly deleted in 10% increments. Relative predictive accuracy was unaffected by missing data, and simpler techniques performed just as well as multiple imputation, but summed totals underestimated absolute risk. The current study therefore provides empirical justification for using proration when data are missing within a sample.
Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in correctional systems internationally, reflecting a history of systemic racism and colonial oppression, and the practice of risk assessment with this ...population has been a focus of legal and sociopolitical controversy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk assessment literature comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) groups. We retrieved 91 studies featuring 22 risk tools and 15 risk/need/cultural domains (N = 59,693, Indigenous; N = 237,729, non-Indigenous/White) and four documents identifying culturally relevant factors. Most measures demonstrated moderate predictive validity but often had significant ethnoracial differences, particularly for static measures. The Service Planning Instrument/Youth Assessment Screening Inventory, Level of Service Inventory youth variants, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Youth Version, and the Violence Risk Scale and its Sexual Offense version had the strongest predictive validity and least ethnoracial discrepancy. The Static Factors Assessment and Dynamic Factors Identification and Analysis-Revised had the weakest predictive validity. For Indigenous persons, the strongest individual predictors of recidivism were low education/employment, substance abuse, antisocial pattern, and poor community functioning, while mitigating factors that predicted decreased recidivism were measures of risk change (i.e., from culturally integrated programs combining mainstream and traditional healing approaches), cultural engagement/connectedness, and protective factors. In practice, static measures need to be supplemented with dynamic ones, and assessors should select measures with at least moderate predictive validity and ideally the least ethnoracial bias. These conclusions are tempered by the quantity and quality of the literature coupled with the circumstance that some study authors have coauthored tools in this review.
Public Significance Statement
Most risk assessment measures can predict reoffending with a reasonable (i.e., moderate) level of accuracy for Indigenous people undergoing risk assessments in the justice system; however, these measures often have better accuracy when used with non-Indigenous (and primarily White) clients, particularly static measures that are heavily based on criminal history. The "best" potential measures tend to be dynamic tools, as these have less prediction bias, can drive services, measure reductions in risk (e.g., with culturally integrated treatment programs), and inform release decisions and community supervision strategies. Of note, other unmeasured or non-risk-relevant factors (e.g., overpolicing, aggressive prosecution) can inflate recidivism estimates for Indigenous peoples and decrease predictive validity of risk measures, which should be considered when conducting risk assessments. Careful, critical examination of current risk measures and further research is necessary to increase fair, humane, and ethical use of these measures with Indigenous clients in forensic, correctional, and legal settings.
The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current ...investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n = 1500) and non-Indigenous (n = 6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.
There are multiple ways to report risk scale results. Varela et al. (2014) found that Static-99R results were interpreted differently by prospective jurors based on risk level (high vs low) and an ...interaction between risk level and risk communication format (categorical, absolute estimate, and risk ratio). We adapted and extended Varela et al.’s (2014) study using updated Static-99R norms, recruiting a population-wide sample (n = 166), and adding variables assessing the personality factors ‘cognitive motivation’ (i.e., need for cognition) and ‘attitudinal affect’ (i.e., attitudes toward sex offenders, authoritarianism). We found a main effect of risk level and no effect of either communication format or the interaction between the two. Adding the personality variables increased explained variance from 9% to 34%, suggesting risk perception may be more about the personality of the person receiving the information than the information itself. We also found an interaction between attitudes toward sex offenders and risk level. Our results suggest risk perception might be better understood if personality factors are considered, particularly attitudes toward sex offenders. Because biases/personality of the person receiving the information are unknown in real world settings we argue that sharing multiple methods for communicating risk might be best and more inclusive.
Objective: Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for ...individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). Hypotheses: The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. Method: We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. Results: We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. Conclusions: This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts.
Public Significance Statement
Previous research has emphasized the differences between individuals who commit sexual offenses online or offline. Our findings suggest that both groups share many of the same risk-relevant psychological and community adjustment problems. Consequently, practices that are effective for offline sexual offending should inform the assessments and treatment of individuals convicted of offenses involving CSEM.
The Static-99 (and revision, the Static-99R) reflect the most researched and widely used approach to sex offender risk assessment. Because the measure is so widely applied in jurisdictions beyond ...those on which it was developed, it becomes crucial to examine its field validity and the degree to which published norms and recidivism rates apply to other jurisdictions. We present a new and greatly expanded field study of the predictive validity (M = 5.23 years follow-up) of the Static-99 as applied system-wide in Texas (N = 34,687). Results revealed stronger predictive validity than a prior Texas field study, especially among offenders scored after the release of an updated scoring manual in 2003 (AUC = .66 to .67, d = .65 to .69), when field reliability was also stronger. But calibration analyses revealed that the Static-99R routine sample norms led to a significant overestimation of risk in Texas, especially for offenders with scores ranging from 1 to 5. We used logistic regression to develop local Texas recidivism norms (with confidence intervals) for Static-99R scores. Overall, findings highlight the importance of revisiting and updating field study findings, and the potential benefits of using statewide data to develop local norms.
There is demand for valid risk assessment of individuals with child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses. We compared the predictive performance of the Risk Matrix 2000/Sex (RM2000/S) and the ...Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) among 365 men convicted of CSEM offenses. In fixed 5-year follow-up analyses, the CPORT (area under the curve AUC = .73) had significantly higher predictive accuracy than the RM2000/S (AUC = .66) for any sexual recidivism. The predictive difference for CSEM recidivism was not statistically significant. A meta-analysis found the CPORT had large effects in predicting sexual recidivism (AUC = .75) and moderate accuracy for CSEM recidivism (AUCs = .65 and .66), while the RM2000/S had moderate accuracy in predicting any sexual recidivism (AUC = .66; insufficient studies of CSEM recidivism). Results suggest a tool developed specifically for CSEM offending, such as CPORT, may perform better at predicting any sexual recidivism than adapting a general sexual offending risk tool.
The Static Factors Assessment (SFA) is used by the Correctional Service of Canada to assess criminal risk. It includes 137 items in three sub-components: the Criminal History Record (CHR), Offence ...Severity Record (OSR), and Sex Offence History Checklist; the first two sub-components are examined in this study (109 items). Although the SFA has been used for all federal offenders for nearly 20 years, there are no studies examining its ability to predict community outcomes. This study included 8,767 federal offenders within a five-year follow-up period, and it examined revocations without an offence, readmissions for any offence, and readmissions for a violent offence. The overall SFA, CHR, and OSR were related to recidivism outcomes, although the sum of the items in the CHR significantly out-predicted the overall SFA rating. Most items in the CHR had significant predictive accuracy, whereas roughly half the OSR items were predictive; nonetheless, the OSR added positive incremental validity to the CHR. The SFA overall rating and the CHR and OSR sub-components are valid for offender risk assessment with Canadian federal offenders, although the current results suggest that improvements to the SFA should be undertaken.
Concerns have been raised regarding the cross-cultural validity of risk assessment scales. This study compared the risk and need profiles of Indian (South Asian) and White men charged or convicted of ...sexual offences. It also examined the predictive accuracy of Static-99R and STABLE-2007, and the constructs of sexual criminality, general criminality, and youthful stranger aggression for violent and any recidivism. The study sample consisted of 2765 White and 158 Indian men supervised by British Columbia (B.C.) Corrections between 2005 and 2013. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to examine group differences between Indian and White offenders. Cox regression analysis was used to examine predictive accuracy. Compared to White men, Indian men demonstrated generally lower risk except that Indian men were more likely to have unrelated and stranger victims and demonstrate hostility towards women. Both Static-99R and STABLE-2007, and the main risk constructs significantly predicted violent and any criminal recidivism for Indian men. Static-99R and STABLE-2007 appear supported for use with men of Indian ancestry. Plausible explanations for the study findings as well as further implications for research and practice are discussed.