The last 15 years have witnessed considerable concern regarding the use of segregation. Attempts to reduce segregation would benefit from being able to identify which inmates are at greatest risk for ...being placed in segregation. The goal of the current research project was to develop an actuarial scale to assess the risk of being placed in administrative segregation for inmates in federal prison in Canada. A total sample of inmates (N = 16,701) was randomly divided into a development sample (N = 11,110) and a validation sample (N = 5,591). Of the 413 potential predictor variables examined, 86% significantly predicted segregation placements. The item pool was reduced using both conceptual and empirical methods. Although several scales were developed and tested, the most efficient option was a simple scale with six static items. Predictive accuracy of this scale was high in the validation sample, as well as for subgroups (e.g., Indigenous and female inmates), and it also significantly outperformed other assessments already used by the prison service. We found that it is possible to develop a simple and easy-to-use scale that would be effective in identifying inmates at risk for placements to administrative segregation, which would be an important first step in efforts to intervene to reduce risk of segregation placement. Implications for developing risk assessment tools and applying to subgroups are discussed.
Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in nonarbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such ...tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism rates are presented based on an aggregated sample (N = 3,144) from four settings: England and Wales, Scotland, Germany, and Canada. The Risk Matrix 2000 Sex, Violence, and Combined scales showed moderate accuracy in assessing the risk of sexual, non-sexual violent, and violent recidivism, respectively. Although there were some differences across samples in the distributions of risk categories, relative increases in recidivism for ascending risk categories were remarkably consistent. Options for presenting percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates in applied evaluations are offered, with discussion of the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of these risk communication metrics.
Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in nonarbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such ...tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism rates are presented based on an aggregated sample (N = 3,144) from four settings: England and Wales, Scotland, Germany, and Canada. The Risk Matrix 2000 Sex, Violence, and Combined scales showed moderate accuracy in assessing the risk of sexual, non-sexual violent, and violent recidivism, respectively. Although there were some differences across samples in the distributions of risk categories, relative increases in recidivism for ascending risk categories were remarkably consistent. Options for presenting percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates in applied evaluations are offered, with discussion of the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of these risk communication metrics.
The overrepresentation of Indigenous offenders in the Canadian criminal justice system highlights the need for research on the applicability of risk assessment for this group. Given that most ...decisions throughout an offender's progression through the criminal justice system are guided by the outcomes of risk assessment, it is essential that risk assessments be structured, objective, reliable, and transparent. Furthermore, it is imperative that these risk assessments be empirically validated to defend their use with a diverse offender population. Meta-analyses and large-sample studies have demonstrated that the major risk factors and commonly used risk assessment scales predict recidivism for Indigenous offenders, but the predictive accuracy is weaker for Indigenous compared with non-Indigenous offenders. Given the consequences of risk assessment for offenders and matters of public safety, the reasons for these differences remain an important topic of research. Despite the evidence gaps, the available research supports the use of empirically validated structured risk assessments with offenders of Indigenous heritage, until there is more research done to better understand differences in predictive accuracy.
Assessing an offender's risk to re‐offend is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in the criminal justice and forensic psychiatric systems. This chapter defines actuarial risk assessment and provides a ...summary of one of the most frequently used actuarial risk scales for predicting violent recidivism, including the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and its successor, and the VRAG‐Revised (VRAG‐R). It gives an overview of some emerging issues and controversies in the application of actuarial risk scales (including anticipated future directions). Another important distinction is that risk scales are different than most psychological assessment scales in that they are criterion‐referenced, as opposed to norm‐reference. In contrast to the relatively vague terminology of risk labels, there are three quantitative metrics that can be used to summarize the information on an actuarial risk scale: percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates.
PDF
