Purpose of Review
Risk assessment is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in the criminal justice system, informing virtually every decision made about offenders. This review, intended for researchers ...and practitioners, outlines some of the most important recent advances, emerging issues, and recommendations in sex offender risk assessment.
Recent Findings
The underlying nature and purpose of risk scales is reviewed, with implications for how we should evaluate them. Limits of recidivism probability estimates are discussed, and efforts to advance a common language for describing risk levels are highlighted. Advances in risk communication and field validity are summarized. The utility of protective risk factors in risk assessments is debated. Emerging areas in assessing offender change and assessments with child pornography offenders are discussed.
Summary
Despite critical advances in the last few years, there are still important gaps in knowledge, particularly for risk communication, field implementation, offender change, and child pornography offenders.
This article describes principles for developing risk category labels for criterion referenced prediction measures, and demonstrates their utility by creating new risk categories for the Static-99R ...and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools. Currently, risk assessments in corrections and forensic mental health are typically summarized in 1 of 3 words: low, moderate, or high. Although these risk labels have strong influence on decision makers, they are interpreted differently across settings, even among trained professionals. The current article provides a framework for standardizing risk communication by matching (a) the information contained in risk tools to (b) a broadly applicable classification of "riskiness" that is independent of any particular offender risk scale. We found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)-they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership. More generally, we argue that the risk categories should be linked to the decisions at hand, and that risk communication can be improved by grounding these risk categories in evidence-based definitions.
The pervasiveness of risk assessment in correctional decision-making necessitates a better understanding of the nature of risk scales and the methods used to assess their accuracy. Risk is a ...continuous dimension, which means that risk assessment is a prognostic task as opposed to a diagnostic task. Risk scales can also be considered criterion-referenced as opposed to norm-referenced. Predictive accuracy can be divided into discrimination and calibration. Area under the curves (AUCs), Cox regression, Harrell’s C, Cohen’s d, and logistic regression are appropriate for analyses of discrimination. There is no consensus on calibration statistics, but both chi-square tests and the Expected/Observed (E/O) index have been used and show promise. Statistics intended for dichotomous diagnostic decisions (e.g., positive predictive accuracy and negative predictive accuracy, number needed to detain, number needed to discharge) are inappropriate for risk scales because of the prognostic nature of risk scales. In many circumstances, diagnostic statistics provide more information about the base rate of recidivism than about the risk scale.
Child sexual abuse (CSA) is a severe and concerning public-health problem globally, but some children are at higher risk of experiencing it. The harms caused by colonization and particularly the ...inter-generational legacy of residential schools would presumably increase the vulnerability of Indigenous children in former British colonies. Among 282 Indigenous participants in Canada recruited from Prime Panels, CSA was reported by 35% of boys, 50% of girls, and 57% of trans and gender non-conforming participants. These rates are substantially higher than global meta-analytic estimates (7.6% of boys and 18.0% of girls). There was evidence of intersectionality based on socioeconomic status. CSA was associated with a variety of other indicators of negative childhood experiences and significantly predicted numerous negative outcomes in adulthood, including mental-health issues (e.g., PTSD), unemployment, and criminal legal-system involvement. Sexual abuse of Indigenous Canadian children is a public-health crisis, and layers of marginalization (e.g., gender, social class) exacerbate this risk. Trauma-informed services to address the harms of colonization are severely needed, in line with recommendations from Canada's Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
Emotional congruence with children (ECWC) is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sexual offending against children (SOC). Based on previous research and theory, three models have been ...proposed to explain ECWC: Blockage, Sexual Domain, and Psychological Immaturity. Using structural equation modelling in a routine correctional sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences (n = 983), we found little support for all three of these models. Instead, we found that atypical sexual interests, alone, best explained ECWC, with a moderate relationship to ECWC. Using the predictors associated with each of the three models of ECWC, we identified three classes of men with a history of SOC who are high in ECWC using latent class analyses (n = 377). These three classes generally did not replicate the three models of ECWC. We instead propose three subgroups of men with histories of SOC who are high in ECWC, characterized respectively by: relationship deficits; youth and loneliness; and high sexual and general criminality. High levels of ECWC are predictive of a higher risk of sexual recidivism, regardless of class association; however, these subgroups are differentially at risk for some types of recidivism. Our findings suggest that ECWC is a multi-faceted construct, which is still not well understood.
We developed a set of risk ratios for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide—Revised (VRAG-R) to broaden the range of risk communication options available when using this tool and to provide information ...needed for future efforts to apply The Council of State Governments Justice Center’s standardized five-level risk framework to the scale. A slightly reduced version of the VRAG-R normative data set was used for the analyses (N = 1,238). Contrary to previous research developing risk ratios, logistic regression provided a more accurate estimate of observed violent recidivism rates than Cox regression for both total VRAG-R scores and VRAG-R decile bins. Further analyses indicated the relationship between the VRAG-R and violent recidivism was consistent over a 15-year follow-up period. Due to the difficulties with interpreting odds ratios, the final risk ratios were computed using rate ratios derived from a logistic regression model using a 5-year fixed follow-up period. These risk ratios, and templates for how the ratios might be used in an assessment report, are presented in the appendices.
Objective: The overrepresentation of numerous racial/ethnic groups in the criminal legal system warrants examination of the cross-cultural applicability of risk assessment tools. Static-99R is a tool ...used in diverse countries to assess sexual recidivism risk. We conducted a meta-analysis on the predictive accuracy of Static-99R across different racial/ethnic groups. Hypotheses: No hypotheses were made regarding discrimination, given that past research could support hypotheses of differential or equivalent accuracy. We hypothesized that Indigenous individuals would score higher on Static-99R than non-Indigenous or White individuals. Method: Our search identified 18 eligible documents (from 17 distinct studies) with 41 nonoverlapping effect sizes. These 17 studies examined the predictive accuracy of Static-99R with racially/ethnically diverse men charged with or convicted of sexually motivated offenses. We report analyses using both fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Indigenous and Black individuals scored significantly higher on Static-99R than their non-Indigenous or White counterparts, with small effect sizes. For discrimination, area under the curve (AUC) values were generally moderate-to-large and statistically significant for all groups in both fixed-effect and random-effects analyses. Within-study subgroup analyses indicated significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous and Hispanic individuals compared with White/non-Indigenous samples (though for Hispanic individuals, this finding was significant only in the fixed-effect analyses). No statistically significant differences in accuracy were found between White and Black individuals. Static-99R significantly predicted recidivism with large effect sizes across two samples of Asian individuals. Two studies supported calibration across Black, White, and Hispanic individuals. Two studies examining calibration of Static-99R for Indigenous individuals had mixed findings. Conclusions: Given a small number of studies and limitations with both the fixed- and random-effects analyses, readers should interpret findings regarding Hispanic individuals with caution. The analyses clearly found significant but lower accuracy for Static-99R with Indigenous individuals. Potential reasons for this differential accuracy are discussed, along with limitations of the meta-analysis and suggestions for research and practice.
Public Significance Statement
Across numerous studies, results appear to support Static-99R's ability to accurately measure sexual recidivism risk among Black, White, and Asian individuals charged with or convicted of sexually motivated offenses. It also predicts recidivism for Indigenous and Hispanic individuals but with lower accuracy. Given that the scale is still predictive for these latter groups, its use should not be abandoned unless and until research has identified empirically superior alternatives.
Although many instruments have been validated to assess risk of sexual recidivism among men, no similar tool exists for women who have sexually offended. As a result, some jurisdictions use ...male-based instruments to assess women despite the lack of validation research examining the predictive utility for this subgroup. This study examined the utility of the Static-99R in predicting sexual recidivism among women. Based on a sample of 739 women convicted of sexual offenses in Texas, findings show that the total score was not significantly associated with sexual recidivism. When looking at individual items, other than a history of prior sexual offenses and noncontact sexual offenses, no item of the Static-99R was significantly associated with sexual recidivism among women. Furthermore, only three items (female victims/solo offender, 4+ sentencing dates, and having not lived with a romantic other for 2+ years) were significantly associated with nonsexual recidivism. These findings indicate that the Static-99R is not suitable to assess risk of recidivism among women convicted of sexual offenses.
Actuarial scales provide a relatively objective and reliable assessment of individuals’ risk of recidivism. Recent research has explored how graphs can improve quantitative risk communication. We ...tested whether graphs can improve understanding and perception of sexual violence risk when matched with risk metric. Participants (N = 676) were recruited from Amazon’s MTurk platform and read a brief description of a man convicted of a sexual offense, including results of a fictional sexual recidivism risk scale. In Study 1, absolute risk of recidivism enabled participants to distinguish between individuals with relatively high and low risk of sexual recidivism. In Study 2, this distinction was enhanced by adding a graph, especially when percentiles were communicated. Risk ratios increased perceived risk. Objective numeracy increased understanding and reduced perceived risk. We recommend that risk communication assumes limited statistical numeracy, and further research with practitioners to test the effect of graphs and risk metrics on forensic/judicial decisions.
The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year ...fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve AUC = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.
