The production of marine protein from fishing and aquaculture is influenced by environmental conditions. Ocean temperature, for example, can change the growth rate of cultured animals, or the ...distribution of wild stocks. In turn these impacts may require changes in fishing or farming practices. In addition to short‐term environmental fluctuations, long‐term climate‐related trends are also resulting in new conditions, necessitating adjustment in fishing, farming and management approaches. Longer‐term climate forecasts, however, are seen as less relevant by many in the seafood sector owing to more immediate concerns. Seasonal forecasts provide insight into upcoming environmental conditions, and thus allow improved decision making. Forecasts based on dynamic ocean models are now possible and offer improved performance relative to statistical forecasts, particularly given baseline shifts in the environment as a result of climate change. Seasonal forecasting is being used in marine farming and fishing operations in Australia, including wild tuna and farmed salmon and prawns, to reduce uncertainty and manage business risks. Forecast variables include water temperature, rainfall and air temperature, and are considered useful up to approximately 4 months into the future, depending on the region and season of interest. Species‐specific habitat forecasts can also be made by combining these environment forecasts with biological habitat preference data. Seasonal forecasts are useful when a range of options are available for implementation in response to the forecasts. The use of seasonal forecasts in supporting effective marine management may also represent a useful stepping stone to improved decision making and industry resilience at longer timescales.
Episodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral ...bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ~20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses.
Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of ...natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.
Scombroid fishes, including tunas, mackerels, and billfishes, constitute some of the most important fisheries in lower latitudes around the world. Though the early life stages of these taxa are ...relatively well-studied, worldwide patterns in larval feeding dynamics and how such patterns relate to environmental conditions are poorly resolved. We present a synthesis of feeding success (i.e. feeding incidences) and diets of larval scombroids from around the world, and relate these results to water column and sea surface properties for the several regions in which larval feeding studies have been conducted. Feeding success of larval tunas was shown to be distinctly different among regions. In some locations (the Straits of Florida and the Mediterranean Sea), nearly no larvae had empty guts, whereas in other locations (the Gulf of California and off NW Australia) ~40–60% of larvae were empty. Diets were consistently narrow in each region (dominated by cyclopoid copepods, appendicularians, nauplii, and other fish larvae), and were usually, but not always, similar for a given scombroid taxon among regions (though diets differed among taxa). Larval habitat conditions were often similar among the 9 regions examined, but some clear differences included low levels of eddy kinetic energy and cooler waters (at the surface and at depth) in the Mediterranean, and lower chlorophyll concentrations around the Nansei Islands, Japan and off NW Australia where feeding success was low. When observed zooplankton abundances are also taken into account, the compiled results on feeding and environmental conditions indicate a bottom-up influence on feeding success. Moreover, the variability among regions highlights the potential for region-specific mechanisms regulating larval survival and, ultimately, levels of adult recruitment.
Primary environmental variables, such as sea surface temperature, wind speed, and chlorophyll, have been used widely in a variety of studies by biological oceanographers to explore the relationship ...between "physics" and, say, distribution and abundance of marine organisms. Fisheries scientists in particular have explored a range of relationships between physics and catch data to understand fish distribution and fishing impacts. The explanatory power of models based on such primary variables is typically limited and may not lead to insight into mechanisms behind the environmental associations. Variables that are more direct measures of habitat, such as thermal fronts, upwelling zones, eddies, and water column descriptors (e.g., mixed layer depth), may yield additional explanatory power. We have developed a suite of these derived variables and demonstrate their utility using examples from Australian fisheries and marine spatial planning. Refinement and access to derived variables may be useful in a range of applications, including catch standardization, habitat prediction, ecosystem models, spatial management, and harvest strategies, and will play an important role in the emerging area of dynamic ocean management.
In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low‐frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of ...decadal‐scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to explain decadal‐scale (1965–2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover, and PCs 1–2 of 36 biological time series production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1–2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1–2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out‐performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1–2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.
Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open‐ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time ...series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ13C values of 0.8‰–2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel‐derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in 13C‐rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ13C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter open‐ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Our study revealed that changes in the marine carbon cycle can be traced in the tissues of marine top predators. We detected a worldwide decrease in tuna δ13C values over the 2000–2015 period. Our analysis suggests a widespread shift in marine phytoplankton community structure or a change in phytoplankton physiology, while this does not exclude other factors that may act in synergy (Suess effect, productivity, trophic fractionation factor).
During 1982–2021, the highest sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Pacific was in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region, with more intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), ...especially during summertime. In this study, we explored the evolution and driving factors of the strongest summer MHWs based on their cumulative intensity using satellite observations and reanalyzed model results. Strong summer MHWs in 1999, 2008, 2012, and 2016 were initiated and peaked around summer. The more recent summer MHW events in 2018, 2020, and 2021 appeared to be associated with intermittent MHW events in the previous winter that extended to boreal summer. Based on a mixed layer temperature budget analysis from March to their peaks in summer, MHWs in 1999, 2008, 2012, and 2016 were primarily driven by the air-sea heat flux anomalies, with anomalous shortwave radiation due to reduced cloud cover being the dominant factor. Summer MHWs in 2018, 2020, and 2021 were mainly contributed by the ocean memory of winter warming. The northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension axis, the northward intrusion of the anticyclonic eddies, and the decadal warming trend may contribute to the positive sea surface height anomalies and increased upper ocean heat content in the KOE to increase winter SST and precondition the summer MHWs. Understanding MHW variability and the underlying mechanisms will help manage the marine ecosystem of the KOE region, as well as predict climate change impacts.
Commercial fishing involves locating fish in a variable environment, and a fisher's historical experience with environmental conditions and the influence on fish distribution underpins their economic ...efficiency. However, in many regions, changing environments are reducing the utility of this experience. In the Great Australian Bight, recent environmental changes have modified the summer distribution of southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii). This has affected the timing and location of fishing activity and contributed to economic impacts, at the same time as international competition is lowering value of the catch. The SBT purse-seine fishery is managed under a strict quota, so catching more fish is not an option to reduce fixed costs; instead fish must be caught more efficiently in a changing environment. Following discussion with industry stakeholders, we developed a seasonal forecast system based on a three stage process. We first assessed needs through discussions with industry. We then developed a SBT habitat forecast system based on a seasonal environmental forecasting model (POAMA: the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) coupled with a habitat preference model for SBT (developed using data from tagged fish). Based on a historical evaluation of the environmental forecasting model and the habitat model, we expect temperature-based habitat forecasts to have useful skill up to two months into the future during the months of interest. The final stage involved forecast delivery via an industry-specific website and engagement with stakeholders, which led to improved presentation and contextualization of the forecasts. The forecasts, which are updated daily, are now being used by SBT fishers and have proven a useful aid in their decision-making.
With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, ...habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don’t respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species’ range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches.To better understand the impacts of marine heatwaves in coastal ecosystems, this study examined the responses of habitat-forming species (macroalgae, seagrass, and corals) to heatwave events in 1322 areas across 85 marine ecoregions. The results suggest marine heatwaves play a key role in the decline of habitat-forming species globally, although some areas exhibit a level of resilience.
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