Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with ...increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden.
We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics.
We present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000–17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8–277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6–240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900–1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600–952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017.
High-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) has worked to assemble and maintain a global open-access database of spatial malariometric data for over a decade. This data spans various formats and topics, ...including: geo-located surveys of malaria parasite rate; global administrative boundary shapefiles; and global and regional rasters representing the distribution of malaria and associated illnesses, blood disorders, and intervention coverage. MAP has recently released malariaAtlas, an R package providing a direct interface to MAP's routinely-updated malariometric databases and research outputs.
The current paper reviews the functionality available in malariaAtlas and highlights its utility for spatial epidemiological analysis of malaria. malariaAtlas enables users to freely download, visualise and analyse global malariometric data within R. Currently available data types include: malaria parasite rate and vector occurrence point data; subnational administrative boundary shapefiles; and a large suite of rasters covering a diverse range of metrics related to malaria research. malariaAtlas is here used in two mock analyses to illustrate how this data may be incorporated into a standard R workflow for spatial analysis.
malariaAtlas is the first open-access R-interface to malariometric data, providing a new and reproducible means of accessing such data within a freely available and commonly used statistical software environment. In this way, the malariaAtlas package aims to contribute to the environment of data-sharing within the malaria research community.
Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying ...location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data.
With data from 2669 of the 3247 health facilities in Madagascar, a spatiotemporal regression model was used to estimate seasonal patterns across the island. In the absence of catchment population estimates or the ability to aggregate to the district level, this focused on the monthly proportions of total annual cases by health facility level. The model was informed by dynamic environmental covariates known to directly influence seasonal malaria trends. To identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start months and associated uncertainty measures, an algorithm was developed and applied to model realisations. A seasonality index was used to incorporate burden information from household prevalence surveys and summarise 'how seasonal' locations are relative to their surroundings.
Positive associations were detected between monthly case proportions and temporally lagged covariates of rainfall and temperature suitability. Consistent with the existing literature, model estimates indicate that while most parts of Madagascar experience peaks in malaria transmission near March-April, the eastern coast experiences an earlier peak around February. Transmission was estimated to start in southeast districts before southwest districts, suggesting that indoor residual spraying should be completed in the same order. In regions where the data suggested conflicting seasonal signals or two transmission seasons, estimates of seasonal features had larger deviations and therefore less certainty.
Monthly health facility data can be used to establish seasonal patterns in malaria burden and augment the information provided by household prevalence surveys. The proposed modelling framework allows for evidence-based and cohesive inferences on location-specific seasonal characteristics. As health surveillance systems continue to improve, it is hoped that more of such data will be available to improve our understanding and planning of intervention strategies.
Transgender women who sell sex (TWSS) experience high rates of HIV acquisition. Antiretrovirals for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) represent an efficacious HIV prevention strategy. The social and ...structural factors affecting PrEP delivery amongst TWSS are underexplored in the literature. We conducted ethnographic research to examine how multilevel social and structural factors manifest in TWSS's lived experiences and affect PrEP delivery and use. Twenty-four transgender women were recruited from the SAPPHIRE cohort and completed interviews focused on barriers and facilitators to PrEP engagement in the context of street-based sex work. Stakeholder interviews (N = 7) were also conducted. Our findings suggest there are unique features of the risk environment that can collectively impede PrEP use among TWSS.
Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) studies indicate that altered brain glutamatergic function may be associated with the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and the response to ...antipsychotic treatment. However, the association of altered glutamatergic function with clinical and demographic factors is unclear.
To assess the associations of age, symptom severity, level of functioning, and antipsychotic treatment with brain glutamatergic metabolites.
The MEDLINE database was searched to identify journal articles published between January 1, 1980, and June 3, 2020, using the following search terms: MRS or magnetic resonance spectroscopy and (1) schizophrenia or (2) psychosis or (3) UHR or (4) ARMS or (5) ultra-high risk or (6) clinical high risk or (7) genetic high risk or (8) prodrome* or (9) schizoaffective. Authors of 114 1H-MRS studies measuring glutamate (Glu) levels in patients with schizophrenia were contacted between January 2014 and June 2020 and asked to provide individual participant data.
In total, 45 1H-MRS studies contributed data.
Associations of Glu, Glu plus glutamine (Glx), or total creatine plus phosphocreatine levels with age, antipsychotic medication dose, symptom severity, and functioning were assessed using linear mixed models, with study as a random factor.
Glu, Glx, and Cr values in the medial frontal cortex (MFC) and medial temporal lobe (MTL).
In total, 42 studies were included, with data for 1251 patients with schizophrenia (mean SD age, 30.3 10.4 years) and 1197 healthy volunteers (mean SD age, 27.5 8.8 years). The MFC Glu (F1,1211.9 = 4.311, P = .04) and Glx (F1,1079.2 = 5.287, P = .02) levels were lower in patients than in healthy volunteers, and although creatine levels appeared lower in patients, the difference was not significant (F1,1395.9 = 3.622, P = .06). In both patients and volunteers, the MFC Glu level was negatively associated with age (Glu to Cr ratio, F1,1522.4 = 47.533, P < .001; cerebrospinal fluid-corrected Glu, F1,1216.7 = 5.610, P = .02), showing a 0.2-unit reduction per decade. In patients, antipsychotic dose (in chlorpromazine equivalents) was negatively associated with MFC Glu (estimate, 0.10 reduction per 100 mg; SE, 0.03) and MFC Glx (estimate, -0.11; SE, 0.04) levels. The MFC Glu to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.01 per 10 points; SE, 0.005) and positive symptom severity (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.02) and was negatively associated with level of global functioning (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.01). In the MTL, the Glx to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.06; SE, 0.03), negative symptoms (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.07), and worse Clinical Global Impression score (estimate, 0.2 per point; SE, 0.06). The MFC creatine level increased with age (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.05) but was not associated with either symptom severity or antipsychotic medication dose.
Findings from this mega-analysis suggest that lower brain Glu levels in patients with schizophrenia may be associated with antipsychotic medication exposure rather than with greater age-related decline. Higher brain Glu levels may act as a biomarker of illness severity in schizophrenia.
To capture the full spectrum of genetic risk for autism, we performed a two-stage analysis of rare de novo and inherited coding variants in 42,607 autism cases, including 35,130 new cases recruited ...online by SPARK. We identified 60 genes with exome-wide significance (P < 2.5 × 10
), including five new risk genes (NAV3, ITSN1, MARK2, SCAF1 and HNRNPUL2). The association of NAV3 with autism risk is primarily driven by rare inherited loss-of-function (LoF) variants, with an estimated relative risk of 4, consistent with moderate effect. Autistic individuals with LoF variants in the four moderate-risk genes (NAV3, ITSN1, SCAF1 and HNRNPUL2; n = 95) have less cognitive impairment than 129 autistic individuals with LoF variants in highly penetrant genes (CHD8, SCN2A, ADNP, FOXP1 and SHANK3) (59% vs 88%, P = 1.9 × 10
). Power calculations suggest that much larger numbers of autism cases are needed to identify additional moderate-risk genes.
The anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene is characteristically translocated in Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphomas (ALCL) and the juxtaposition of the ALK gene to multiple partners results in its ...constitutive protein tyrosine kinase activity. We show here that expression of activated ALK induces the constitutive phosphorylation of Stat3 in transfected cells as well as in primary human ALCLs. Furthermore, immunohistochemical studies demonstrate that among distinct human B and T cell lymphomas, activation of Stat3 nuclear translocation is uniquely associated with ALK expression. NPM-ALK also binds and activates Jak3; however, Jak3 is not required for Stat3 activation or for cell transformation in vitro. Moreover, src family kinases are not necessary for NPM-ALK-mediated Stat3 activation or transformation, suggesting that Stat3 may be phosphorylated directly by ALK. To evaluate relevant targets of ALK-activated Stat3, we investigated the regulation of the anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-x(L) and its role in cell survival in NPM-ALK positive cells. NPM-ALK expression caused enhanced Bcl-x(L) transcription, largely mediated by Stat3. Increased expression of Bcl-x(L) provided sufficient anti-apoptotic signals to protect cells from treatment with specific inhibitors of the Jaks/Stat pathway or the Brc-Abl kinase. These studies support a pathogenic mechanism whereby stimulation of anti-apoptotic signals through activation of Stat3 contributes to the successful outgrowth of ALK positive tumor cells.
•NBH killifish have more liver triglycerides and adipose tissue than fish from a reference population.•Variation in lipid levels was most distinct in the spring, reflecting differences in lipid ...storage.•PCB126 induced PPARƴ gene expression in livers of male reference (but not NBH) killifish.•Regression analyses identified predictors of liver triglycerides not discernible by ANOVA.
Sentinel species such as the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) living in urban waterways can be used as toxicological models to understand impacts of environmental metabolism disrupting compound (MDC) exposure on both wildlife and humans. Exposure to MDCs is associated with increased risk of metabolic syndrome, including impaired lipid and glucose homeostasis, adipogenesis, appetite control, and basal metabolism. MDCs are ubiquitous in the environment, including in aquatic environments. New Bedford Harbor (NBH), Massachusetts is polluted with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and, as we show for the first time, tin (Sn). PCBs and organotins are ligands for two receptor systems known to regulate lipid homeostasis, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs), respectively. In the current study, we compared lipid homeostasis in laboratory-reared killifish from NBH (F2) and a reference location (Scorton Creek, Massachusetts; F1 and F2) to evaluate how adaptation to local conditions may influence responses to MDCs. Adult killifish from each population were exposed to 3,3′,4,4′,5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB126, dioxin-like), 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB153, non-dioxin-like), or tributyltin (TBT, a PPARγ ligand) by a single intraperitoneal injection and analyzed after 3 days. AHR activation was assessed by measuring cyp1a mRNA expression. Lipid homeostasis was evaluated phenotypically by measuring liver triglycerides and organosomatic indices, and at the molecular level by measuring the mRNA expression of pparg and ppara and a target gene for each receptor. Acute MDC exposure did not affect phenotypic outcomes. However, overall NBH killifish had higher liver triglycerides and adiposomatic indices than SC killifish. Both season and population were significant predictors of the lipid phenotype. Acute MDC exposure altered hepatic gene expression only in male killifish from SC. PCB126 exposure induced cyp1a and pparg, whereas PCB153 exposure induced ppara. TBT exposure did not induce ppar-dependent pathways. Comparison of lipid homeostasis in two killifish populations extends our understanding of how MDCs act on fish and provides a basis to infer adaptive benefits of these differences in the wild.
Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria ...Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional surveys, conducted during the high transmission season most recently in 2013 and 2016, provide nationally representative prevalence data but cover relatively short time frames. Conversely, monthly case data are collected at health facilities but suffer from biases, including incomplete reporting and low rates of treatment seeking. We combined survey and case data to make monthly maps of prevalence between 2013 and 2016. Health facility catchment populations were estimated to produce incidence rates from the case data. Smoothed incidence surfaces, environmental and socioeconomic covariates, and survey data informed a Bayesian prevalence model, in which a flexible incidence-to-prevalence relationship was learned. Modelled spatial trends were consistent over time, with highest prevalence in the coastal regions and low prevalence in the highlands and desert south. Prevalence was lowest in 2014 and peaked in 2015 and seasonality was widely observed, including in some lower transmission regions. These trends highlight the utility of monthly prevalence estimates over the four year period. By combining survey and case data using this two-step modelling approach, we were able to take advantage of the relative strengths of each metric while accounting for potential bias in the case data. Similar modelling approaches combining large datasets of different malaria metrics may be applicable across sub-Saharan Africa.
PDF
