The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. ...Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.
This article explores how digital communications platforms are used in the aftermath of terrorist attacks to amplify or constrain the wider social impacts and consequences of politically motivated ...violence. Informed by empirical data collected by monitoring social media platforms following four terrorist attacks in the UK in 2017, the analysis focusses on the role of 'soft facts' (rumours/conspiracy theories/fake news/propaganda) in influencing public understandings and definitions of the situation. Specifically, it identifies three digital influence engineering techniques - spoofing, truthing and social proofing - that are associated with the communication of misinformation and disinformation. After configuring these concepts, the authors consider their implications for policy and practice development, concluding that, to date, possibilities for evidence-informed post-event preventative interventions have been relatively neglected in the formulation of counter-terrorism strategies. They recommend more attention be paid to how strategic communications interventions can counteract the effects of misinformation and disinformation, and thus mitigate the wider public harms induced by terror events.
Tephrochronology is a powerful tool used to synchronise and date stratigraphic records by accurate and precise geochemical analysis of deposited volcanic glass shards. However, in many distal ...stratigraphic records (e.g., polar ice cores) tephra shards are often extremely fine-grained (<10 μm). Geochemical characterisation of these shards is challenging because conventional preparation and analytical techniques require highly polished glass areas >5 μm for electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) to ensure high analytical totals and minimise alkali element loss. Recent method developments have put forward alternative approaches to accurately measure major oxides of small shards: a smaller 3 μm diameter beam, overlapping large (20 μm) beam areas onto supporting epoxy resin, and using scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM-EDS). However, there has been no direct intercomparison of these alternative techniques, which to date have only been tested on a limited range of glass compositions and tephras that are much larger than the extremely fine-grained material found in distal archives. These issues complicate decision making about the best analytical approach to take when faced with small shards. Here, we provide a new workflow protocol for the analysis of <10 μm tephra by determining the accuracy and precision of alternative SEM-EPMA methods. By analysing a variety of glass standards including those prepared to replicate fine-grained ice-core cryptotephras, we show that a 3 μm EPMA beam is suitable for use on all glass compositions provided the beam current is reduced to 1 nA. When glass areas are too small for a 3 μm beam we show that overlapping this small beam onto epoxy resin is preferable to SEM-EDS analysis. We also provide evidence confirming that using 3–0.2 μm polishes for <5 min increases analytical precision of the most abundant major oxides by up to three times, whilst, crucially, preserving the smallest shards in a sample. By directly applying these alternative methods to ice-core cryptotephra, we demonstrate the data are of suitable accuracy and precision to make robust geochemical correlations. This workflow can be applied to future tephrochronology studies, significantly increasing the quality and quantity of data that are obtained from cryptotephra horizons in distal records.
Adjuvant trastuzumab significantly improves outcomes for patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer. The standard treatment duration is 12 months but shorter treatment could provide similar ...efficacy while reducing toxicities and cost. We aimed to investigate whether 6-month adjuvant trastuzumab treatment is non-inferior to the standard 12-month treatment regarding disease-free survival.
This study is an open-label, randomised phase 3 non-inferiority trial. Patients were recruited from 152 centres in the UK. We randomly assigned patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer, aged 18 years or older, and with a clear indication for chemotherapy, by a computerised minimisation process (1:1), to receive either 6-month or 12-month trastuzumab delivered every 3 weeks intravenously (loading dose of 8 mg/kg followed by maintenance doses of 6 mg/kg) or subcutaneously (600 mg), given in combination with chemotherapy (concurrently or sequentially). The primary endpoint was disease-free survival, analysed by intention to treat, with a non-inferiority margin of 3% for 4-year disease-free survival. Safety was analysed in all patients who received trastuzumab. This trial is registered with EudraCT (number 2006–007018–39), ISRCTN (number 52968807), and ClinicalTrials.gov (number NCT00712140).
Between Oct 4, 2007, and July 31, 2015, 2045 patients were assigned to 12-month trastuzumab treatment and 2044 to 6-month treatment (one patient was excluded because they were double randomised). Median follow-up was 5·4 years (IQR 3·6–6·7) for both treatment groups, during which a disease-free survival event occurred in 265 (13%) of 2043 patients in the 6-month group and 247 (12%) of 2045 patients in the 12-month group. 4-year disease-free survival was 89·4% (95% CI 87·9–90·7) in the 6-month group and 89·8% (88·3–91·1) in the 12-month group (hazard ratio 1·07 90% CI 0·93–1·24, non-inferiority p=0·011), showing non-inferiority of the 6-month treatment. 6-month trastuzumab treatment resulted in fewer patients reporting severe adverse events (373 19% of 1939 patients vs 459 24% of 1894 patients, p=0·0002) or stopping early because of cardiotoxicity (61 3% of 1939 patients vs 146 8% of 1894 patients, p<0·0001).
We have shown that 6-month trastuzumab treatment is non-inferior to 12-month treatment in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer, with less cardiotoxicity and fewer severe adverse events. These results support consideration of reduced duration trastuzumab for women at similar risk of recurrence as to those included in the trial.
UK National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment Programme.
Hopanoids bound into the insoluble organic matter (kerogen) of Recent sediments from a freshwater lake (Priest Pot) and an anoxic sulphidic fjord (Framvaren) were released by hydropyrolysis and ...examined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Bound hopanoids are present in high concentration (190–1400 μg/g TOC) and represent 22 to 86% of the total analysable hopanoids (i.e., bound and solvent-soluble), this proportion increasing with depth in Framvaren Fjord. The hopanes generated by hydropyrolysis contain higher amounts of the C
35, C
32, and C
30 homologues, reflecting the carbon number distribution of the bound hopanoids and indicating that both biohopanoids (C
30 and C
35) and their diagenetic products (dominated by C
32) are incorporated into the kerogen on a timescale of only 0 to 350 years. Sequential (multiple temperature) hydropyrolysis experiments gave an indication of the relative strengths of bonds being cleaved in association with hopane generation: The hopanoids of a sediment from Priest Pot are almost entirely bound by strong covalent bonds, interpreted to be mainly ether linkages, whilst a Framvaren sediment contains hopanoids that are bound by a mixture of weak di-/polysulphide linkages and stronger ether bonds. Labelling with deuterium indicated that the strong covalent linkages dominate, even for the Framvaren sediment.
The 540s, 1450s, and 1600s represent three of the five coldest decades in the Common Era (CE). In each of these cases, the cause of these cold pulses has been attributed to large volcanic eruptions. ...However, the provenance of the eruption and magnitude of the volcanic forcing remains uncertain. Here, we use high-resolution sulfur isotopes in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores measured across these events to provide a means of improving sulfur loading estimates for these eruptions. In each case, the largest reconstructed tree-ring cooling is associated with an extratropical eruption, and the high-altitude stratospheric sulfate loading of these events is substantially smaller than previous estimates (by up to a factor of two). These results suggest an increased sensitivity of the reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature response to extratropical eruptions. This highlights the importance of climate feedbacks and processes that amplify and prolong the cooling signal from high latitudes, such as changes in sea ice extent and ocean heat content.
The 540s, 1450s, and 1600s represent three of the five coldest decades in the Common Era (CE). In each of these cases, the cause of these cold pulses has been attributed to large volcanic eruptions. ...However, the provenance of the eruption and magnitude of the volcanic forcing remains uncertain. Here, we use high-resolution sulfur isotopes in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores measured across these events to provide a means of improving sulfur loading estimates for these eruptions. In each case, the largest reconstructed tree-ring cooling is associated with an extratropical eruption, and the high-altitude stratospheric sulfate loading of these events is substantially smaller than previous estimates (by up to a factor of two). These results suggest an increased sensitivity of the reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature response to extratropical eruptions. This highlights the importance of climate feedbacks and processes that amplify and prolong the cooling signal from high latitudes, such as changes in sea ice extent and ocean heat content.
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