The world is faced with a remarkable coronavirus outbreak with epicentre in Wuhan, China. Altogether 40554 cases have been confirmed globally with novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) until February 10, ...2020. Rigorous surveillance in other countries is required to prevent further global expansion of the outbreak, but resolving the exact mechanism of the initial transmission events is crucial. Most initial cases had visited Huanan South Seafood Market in Wuhan selling also various exotic live animals. Based on the limited initial human-to-human transmission and timely clustering of cases in Huanan market among elderly men, coupled with knowledge that coronaviruses are derived from animals and relationship of SARS-CoV-2 to bat coronavirus, zoonotic transmission in the first instance is probable. To target the actions, similar epidemiological actions to human cases are needed with animal or food exposures. According to current information, an exceptionally wide contamination of seafood market might explain the initiation of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Seafood tanks, air contamination by live animals or rodents are possibilities, but sold animals normally come from various sources. The mode of transmission may become clearer in future: usually in outbreak investigations, hindsight is easy, but for now information about the initial source of this outbreak is limited.
The World Health Organization considers an Ebola outbreak to have ended once 42 days have passed since the last possible exposure to a confirmed case. Benefits of a quick end-of-outbreak declaration, ...such as reductions in trade/travel restrictions, must be balanced against the chance of flare-ups from undetected residual cases. We show how epidemiological modelling can be used to estimate the surveillance level required for decision-makers to be confident that an outbreak is over. Results from a simple model characterizing an Ebola outbreak suggest that a surveillance sensitivity (i.e. case reporting percentage) of 79% is necessary for 95% confidence that an outbreak is over after 42 days without symptomatic cases. With weaker surveillance, unrecognized transmission may still occur: if the surveillance sensitivity is only 40%, then 62 days must be waited for 95% certainty. By quantifying the certainty in end-of-outbreak declarations, public health decision-makers can plan and communicate more effectively. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This issue is linked with the earlier theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
•Recent global salmonella outbreak was linked to chocolate products but potential role of cocoa beans has been neglected.•Chocolate related salmonella outbreaks have occurred mostly during low cocoa ...price levels.•These outbreaks highlight corporate social responsibility while demonstrating the need of multi-professional approaches.
Recent global salmonella outbreak was linked to chocolate products but potential role of cocoa beans has been neglected. Chocolate related salmonella outbreaks have occurred mostly during low cocoa price levels. Food business operators should ensure hygiene at all production stages. These outbreaks highlight corporate social responsibility while demonstrating the need of multi-professional approaches.
Unrest in Myanmar in August 2017 resulted in the movement of over 700,000 Rohingya refugees to overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. A large outbreak of diphtheria subsequently began in this ...population.
Data were collected during mass vaccination campaigns (MVCs), contact tracing activities, and from 9 Diphtheria Treatment Centers (DTCs) operated by national and international organizations. These data were used to describe the epidemiological and clinical features and the control measures to prevent transmission, during the first 2 years of the outbreak. Between November 10, 2017 and November 9, 2019, 7,064 cases were reported: 285 (4.0%) laboratory-confirmed, 3,610 (51.1%) probable, and 3,169 (44.9%) suspected cases. The crude attack rate was 51.5 cases per 10,000 person-years, and epidemic doubling time was 4.4 days (95% confidence interval CI 4.2-4.7) during the exponential growth phase. The median age was 10 years (range 0-85), and 3,126 (44.3%) were male. The typical symptoms were sore throat (93.5%), fever (86.0%), pseudomembrane (34.7%), and gross cervical lymphadenopathy (GCL; 30.6%). Diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) was administered to 1,062 (89.0%) out of 1,193 eligible patients, with adverse reactions following among 229 (21.6%). There were 45 deaths (case fatality ratio CFR 0.6%). Household contacts for 5,702 (80.7%) of 7,064 cases were successfully traced. A total of 41,452 contacts were identified, of whom 40,364 (97.4%) consented to begin chemoprophylaxis; adherence was 55.0% (N = 22,218) at 3-day follow-up. Unvaccinated household contacts were vaccinated with 3 doses (with 4-week interval), while a booster dose was administered if the primary vaccination schedule had been completed. The proportion of contacts vaccinated was 64.7% overall. Three MVC rounds were conducted, with administrative coverage varying between 88.5% and 110.4%. Pentavalent vaccine was administered to those aged 6 weeks to 6 years, while tetanus and diphtheria (Td) vaccine was administered to those aged 7 years and older. Lack of adequate diagnostic capacity to confirm cases was the main limitation, with a majority of cases unconfirmed and the proportion of true diphtheria cases unknown.
To our knowledge, this is the largest reported diphtheria outbreak in refugee settings. We observed that high population density, poor living conditions, and fast growth rate were associated with explosive expansion of the outbreak during the initial exponential growth phase. Three rounds of mass vaccinations targeting those aged 6 weeks to 14 years were associated with only modestly reduced transmission, and additional public health measures were necessary to end the outbreak. This outbreak has a long-lasting tail, with Rt oscillating at around 1 for an extended period. An adequate global DAT stockpile needs to be maintained. All populations must have access to health services and routine vaccination, and this access must be maintained during humanitarian crises.
Seven major food- and waterborne norovirus outbreaks in Western Finland during 2014-2018 were re-analysed. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of outbreak investigation tools and evaluate the ...Kaplan criteria. We summarised epidemiological and microbiological findings from seven outbreaks. To evaluate the Kaplan criteria, a one-stage meta-analysis of data from seven cohort studies was performed. The case was defined as a person attending an implicated function with diarrhoea, vomiting or two other symptoms. Altogether, 22% (386/1794) of persons met the case definition. Overall adjusted, 73% of norovirus patients were vomiting, the mean incubation period was 44 h (4 h to 4 days) and the median duration of illness was 46 h. As vomiting was a more common symptom in children (96%, 143/149) and diarrhoea among the elderly (92%, 24/26), symptom and age presentation should drive hypothesis formulation. The Kaplan criteria were useful in initial outbreak assessments prior to faecal results. Rapid food control inspections enabled evidence-based, public-health-driven risk assessments. This led to probability-based vehicle identification and aided in resolving the outbreak event mechanism rather than implementing potentially ineffective, large-scale public health actions such as the withdrawal of extensive food lots. Asymptomatic food handlers should be ideally withdrawn from high-risk work for five days instead of the current two days. Food and environmental samples often remain negative with norovirus, highlighting the importance of research collaborations. Electronic questionnaire and open-source novel statistical programmes provided time and resource savings. The public health approach proved useful within the environmental health area with shoe leather field epidemiology, combined with statistical analysis and mathematical reasoning.
Failures in the drinking water distribution system cause gastrointestinal outbreaks with multiple pathogens. A water distribution pipe breakage caused a community-wide waterborne outbreak in Vuorela, ...Finland, July 2012. We investigated this outbreak with advanced epidemiological and microbiological methods. A total of 473/2931 inhabitants (16%) responded to a web-based questionnaire. Water and patient samples were subjected to analysis of multiple microbial targets, molecular typing and microbial community analysis. Spatial analysis on the water distribution network was done and we applied a spatial logistic regression model. The course of the illness was mild. Drinking untreated tap water from the defined outbreak area was significantly associated with illness (RR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9-16.4) increasing in a dose response manner. The closer a person lived to the water distribution breakage point, the higher the risk of becoming ill. Sapovirus, enterovirus, single Campylobacter jejuni and EHEC O157:H7 findings as well as virulence genes for EPEC, EAEC and EHEC pathogroups were detected by molecular or culture methods from the faecal samples of the patients. EPEC, EAEC and EHEC virulence genes and faecal indicator bacteria were also detected in water samples. Microbial community sequencing of contaminated tap water revealed abundance of Arcobacter species. The polyphasic approach improved the understanding of the source of the infections, and aided to define the extent and magnitude of this outbreak.
Consumer purchase data (CPD) can be a powerful tool in the investigation of foodborne outbreaks through analyses of electronic records of food that individuals buy. The objective of this study was to ...develop a common framework for use of CPD in foodborne outbreak investigations using the expertise of European public health professionals from 11 European countries. We also aimed to describe barriers and limitations preventing CPD utilization.
CPD are mainly gathered from supermarket loyalty programmes, smaller consortia, and independent supermarkets. Privacy legislation governing CPD was perceived as the most crucial barrier for CPD usage, but still resolvable. The main practical challenges were obtaining consumer consent for CPD usage, the associated workload, data access, format, and analysis. Harmonising methods and reporting across countries, standardised consent forms and electronic consent methods were identified as solutions.
This guideline was developed to support outbreak investigators in overcoming barriers in using CPD, thereby increasing public health professionals' application and value of this powerful investigation tool. In addition, we hope this framework will lead to more public health institutions, in collaboration with food safety authorities, making use of CPD in outbreak investigations in the future.
Verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) is the cause of severe gastrointestinal infection especially among infants. Between 10 and 20 cases are reported annually to the National Infectious Disease Register ...(NIDR) in Finland. The aim of this study was to identify explanatory variables for VTEC infections reported to the NIDR in Finland between 1997 and 2006. We applied a hurdle model, applicable for a dataset with an excess of zeros.
We enrolled 131 domestically acquired primary cases of VTEC between 1997 and 2006 from routine surveillance data. The isolated strains were characterized by virulence type, serogroup, phage type and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. By applying a two-part Bayesian hurdle model to infectious disease surveillance data, we were able to create a model in which the covariates were associated with the probability for occurrence of the cases in the logistic regression part and the magnitude of covariate changes in the Poisson regression part if cases do occur. The model also included spatial correlations between neighbouring municipalities.
The average annual incidence rate was 4.8 cases per million inhabitants based on the cases as reported to the NIDR. Of the 131 cases, 74 VTEC O157 and 58 non-O157 strains were isolated (one person had dual infections). The number of bulls per human population and the proportion of the population with a higher education were associated with an increased occurrence and incidence of human VTEC infections in 70 (17%) of 416 of Finnish municipalities. In addition, the proportion of fresh water per area, the proportion of cultivated land per area and the proportion of low income households with children were associated with increased incidence of VTEC infections.
With hurdle models we were able to distinguish between risk factors for the occurrence of the disease and the incidence of the disease for data characterised by an excess of zeros. The density of bulls and the proportion of the population with higher education were significant both for occurrence and incidence, while the proportion of fresh water, cultivated land, and the proportion of low income households with children were significant for the incidence of the disease.
Selected probiotic lactic acid bacteria (LAB) have been shown to elicit positive health effects particularly in humans. Competitive exclusion of pathogens is one of the most important beneficial ...health claims of probiotic bacteria. The effect of probiotic LAB on competitive exclusion of pathogens has been demonstrated in humans, chicken and pigs. In this study we evaluated the ability of certain LAB strains (
Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG,
Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12,
Lactobacillus pentosus UK1A,
L. pentosus SK2A,
Enterococcus faecium M74 and
E. faecium SF273) to inhibit the adhesion of selected canine and zoonotic pathogens (
Staphylococcus intermedius,
Salmonella Typhimurium ATCC 14028,
Clostridium perfringens and
Campylobacter jejuni) to immobilised mucus isolated from canine jejunal chyme in vitro. Adhesion of
C. perfringens was reduced significantly by all tested LAB strains, between 53.7 and 79.1% of the control without LAB, the LAB of canine origin yielding the best reduction. The adhesion of
S. Typhimurium and
S. intermedius were not significantly altered by any of the LAB included in the study. Both enterococci tested significantly enhanced the adhesion of
C. jejuni, to 134.6 and 205.5% of the control without LAB.
E. faecium may thus favor the adhesion and colonization of
C. jejuni in the dog’s intestine, making it a potential carrier and possibly a source for human infection. Enhanced
C. jejuni adhesion is a new potential risk factor of enterococci. Our results further emphasize the importance of safety guidelines to be established for the probiotics intended for animal use.
In November 2016, an elderly patient was diagnosed with
bacteremia in Finland. Grocery store loyalty card records and microbiological investigation of foods found in the home fridge and freezer of ...the patient revealed commercial, modified-atmosphere packaged meatballs as the source of the infection. Investigation of the meatball production plant revealed that the floor drain samples were contaminated with the same
strain as those isolated from the patient and meatballs. Ready-to-eat meatballs were likely contaminated after heat treatment from the production environment before packaging. Long-term cold storage, modified-atmosphere conditions, and the absence of competing bacteria presumably enhanced the growth of
. We recommend that collection of shopping details and home fridge and freezer sampling should be part of surveillance of all cases of
infections to complement information obtained from in-depth interviews.
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