Much bankruptcy research has relied on parametric models, such as multiple discriminant analysis and logit, which can only handle a finite number of predictors (Altman in The Journal of Finance 23 ...(4), 589–609,
1968
; Ohlson in Journal of Accounting Research 18 (1), 109–131,
1980
). The gradient boosting model is a statistical learning method that overcomes this limitation. The model accommodates very large numbers of predictors which can be rank ordered, from best to worst, based on their overall predictive power (Friedman in The Annals of Statistics 29 (5), 1189–1232,
2001
; Hastie et al.
2009
). Using a sample of 1115 US bankruptcy filings and 91 predictor variables, the study finds that non-traditional variables, such as ownership structure/concentration and CEO compensation are among the strongest predictors overall. The next best predictors are unscaled market and accounting variables that proxy for size effects. This is followed by market-price measures and financial ratios. The weakest predictors overall included macro-economic variables, analyst recommendations/forecasts and industry variables.
The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants has led to growing concerns over increased transmissibility and the ability of some variants to partially escape ...immunity. Sera from participants immunized on a prime-boost schedule with the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine were tested for neutralizing activity against several SARS-CoV-2 variants, including variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs), compared to neutralization of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus (designated D614G). Results showed minimal, statistically nonsignificant effects on neutralization titers against the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant (1.2-fold reduction compared with D614G); other VOCs, such as B.1.351 (Beta, including B.1.351-v1, B.1.351-v2, and B.1.351-v3), P.1 (Gamma), and B.1.617.2 (Delta), showed significantly decreased neutralization titers ranging from 2.1-fold to 8.4-fold reductions compared with D614G, although all remained susceptible to mRNA-1273-elicited serum neutralization. IMPORTANCE In light of multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have been documented globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains important to continually assess the ability of currently available vaccines to confer protection against newly emerging variants. Data presented herein indicate that immunization with the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine produces neutralizing antibodies against key emerging variants tested, including variants of concern and variants of interest. While the serum neutralization elicited by mRNA-1273 against most variants tested was reduced compared with that against the wild-type virus, the level of neutralization is still expected to be protective. Such data are crucial to inform ongoing and future vaccination strategies to combat COVID-19.
Antigens displayed on self-assembling nanoparticles can stimulate strong immune responses and have been playing an increasingly prominent role in structure-based vaccines. However, the development of ...such immunogens is often complicated by inefficiencies in their production. To alleviate this issue, we developed a plug-and-play platform using the spontaneous isopeptide-bond formation of the SpyTag:SpyCatcher system to display trimeric antigens on self-assembling nanoparticles, including the 60-subunit Aquifex aeolicus lumazine synthase (LuS) and the 24-subunit Helicobacter pylori ferritin. LuS and ferritin coupled to SpyTag expressed well in a mammalian expression system when an N-linked glycan was added to the nanoparticle surface. The respiratory syncytial virus fusion (F) glycoprotein trimer-stabilized in the prefusion conformation and fused with SpyCatcher-could be efficiently conjugated to LuS-SpyTag or ferritin-SpyTag, enabling multivalent display of F trimers with prefusion antigenicity. Similarly, F-glycoprotein trimers from human parainfluenza virus-type 3 and spike-glycoprotein trimers from SARS-CoV-2 could be displayed on LuS nanoparticles with decent yield and antigenicity. Notably, murine vaccination with 0.08 µg of SARS-CoV-2 spike-LuS nanoparticle elicited similar neutralizing responses as 2.0 µg of spike, which was ~ 25-fold higher on a weight-per-weight basis. The versatile platform described here thus allows for multivalent plug-and-play presentation on self-assembling nanoparticles of trimeric viral antigens, with SARS-CoV-2 spike-LuS nanoparticles inducing particularly potent neutralizing responses.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalisation for children under 5 years of age. We sought to engineer a viral antigen that provides greater protection than currently ...available vaccines and focused on antigenic site φ, a metastable site specific to the prefusion state of the RSV fusion (F) glycoprotein, as this site is targeted by extremely potent RSV-neutralizing antibodies. Structure-based design yielded stabilized versions of RSV F that maintained antigenic site φ when exposed to extremes of pH, osmolality, and temperature. Six RSV F crystal structures provided atomic-level data on how introduced cysteine residues and filled hydrophobic cavities improved stability. Immunization with site φ—stabilized variants of RSV F in mice and macaques elicited levels of RSV-specific neutralizing activity many times the protective threshold.
The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) envelope (Env) spike, comprising three gp120 and three gp41 subunits, is a conformational machine that facilitates HIV-1 entry by rearranging from a ...mature unliganded state, through receptor-bound intermediates, to a post-fusion state. As the sole viral antigen on the HIV-1 virion surface, Env is both the target of neutralizing antibodies and a focus of vaccine efforts. Here we report the structure at 3.5 Å resolution for an HIV-1 Env trimer captured in a mature closed state by antibodies PGT122 and 35O22. This structure reveals the pre-fusion conformation of gp41, indicates rearrangements needed for fusion activation, and defines parameters of immune evasion and immune recognition. Pre-fusion gp41 encircles amino- and carboxy-terminal strands of gp120 with four helices that form a membrane-proximal collar, fastened by insertion of a fusion peptide-proximal methionine into a gp41-tryptophan clasp. Spike rearrangements required for entry involve opening the clasp and expelling the termini. N-linked glycosylation and sequence-variable regions cover the pre-fusion closed spike; we used chronic cohorts to map the prevalence and location of effective HIV-1-neutralizing responses, which were distinguished by their recognition of N-linked glycan and tolerance for epitope-sequence variation.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is estimated to claim more lives among infants <1 year old than any other single pathogen, except malaria, and poses a substantial global health burden. Viral entry ...is mediated by a type I fusion glycoprotein (F) that transitions from a metastable prefusion (pre-F) to a stable postfusion (post-F) trimer. A highly neutralization-sensitive epitope, antigenic site Ø, is found only on pre-F. We determined what fraction of neutralizing (NT) activity in human sera is dependent on antibodies specific for antigenic site Ø or other antigenic sites on F in healthy subjects from ages 7 to 93 years. Adsorption of individual sera with stabilized pre-F protein removed >90% of NT activity and depleted binding antibodies to both F conformations. In contrast, adsorption with post-F removed ~30% of NT activity, and binding antibodies to pre-F were retained. These findings were consistent across all age groups. Protein competition neutralization assays with pre-F mutants in which sites Ø or II were altered to knock out binding of antibodies to the corresponding sites showed that these sites accounted for ~35 and <10% of NT activity, respectively. Binding competition assays with monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) indicated that the amount of site Ø-specific antibodies correlated with NT activity, whereas the magnitude of binding competed by site II mAbs did not correlate with neutralization. Our results indicate that RSV NT activity in human sera is primarily derived from pre-F-specific antibodies, and therefore, inducing or boosting NT activity by vaccination will be facilitated by using pre-F antigens that preserve site Ø.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of severe respiratory illness worldwide, particularly in infants, young children, and the elderly. Although no licensed vaccine is currently ...available, an engineered version of the metastable RSV fusion (F) surface glycoprotein-stabilized in the pre-fusion (pre-F) conformation by "DS-Cav1" mutations-elicits high titer RSV-neutralizing responses. Moreover, pre-F-specific antibodies, often against the neutralization-sensitive antigenic site Ø in the membrane-distal head region of trimeric F glycoprotein, comprise a substantial portion of the human response to natural RSV infection. To focus the vaccine-elicited response to antigenic site Ø, we designed a series of RSV F immunogens that comprised the membrane-distal head of the F glycoprotein in its pre-F conformation. These "head-only" immunogens formed monomers, dimers, and trimers. Antigenic analysis revealed that a majority of the 70 engineered head-only immunogens displayed reactivity to site Ø-targeting antibodies, which was similar to that of the parent RSV F DS-Cav1 trimers, often with increased thermostability. We evaluated four of these head-only immunogens in detail, probing their recognition by antibodies, their physical stability, structure, and immunogenicity. When tested in naïve mice, a head-only trimer, half the size of the parent RSV F trimer, induced RSV titers, which were statistically comparable to those induced by DS-Cav1. When used to boost DS-Cav1-primed mice, two head-only RSV F immunogens, a dimer and a trimer, boosted RSV-neutralizing titers to levels that were comparable to those boosted by DS-Cav1, although with higher site Ø-directed responses. Our results provide proof-of-concept for the ability of the smaller head-only RSV F immunogens to focus the vaccine-elicited response to antigenic site Ø. Decent primary immunogenicity, enhanced physical stability, potential ease of manufacture, and potent immunogenicity upon boosting suggest these head-only RSV F immunogens, engineered to retain the pre-fusion conformation, may have advantages as candidate RSV vaccines.
The mRNA-1273 vaccine is effective against SARS-CoV-2 and was granted emergency use authorization by the FDA. Clinical studies, however, cannot provide the controlled response to infection and ...complex immunological insight that are only possible with preclinical studies. Hamsters are the only model that reliably exhibits severe SARS-CoV-2 disease similar to that in hospitalized patients, making them pertinent for vaccine evaluation. We demonstrate that prime or prime-boost administration of mRNA-1273 in hamsters elicited robust neutralizing antibodies, ameliorated weight loss, suppressed SARS-CoV-2 replication in the airways, and better protected against disease at the highest prime-boost dose. Unlike in mice and nonhuman primates, low-level virus replication in mRNA-1273-vaccinated hamsters coincided with an anamnestic response. Single-cell RNA sequencing of lung tissue permitted high-resolution analysis that is not possible in vaccinated humans. mRNA-1273 prevented inflammatory cell infiltration and the reduction of lymphocyte proportions, but enabled antiviral responses conducive to lung homeostasis. Surprisingly, infection triggered transcriptome programs in some types of immune cells from vaccinated hamsters that were shared, albeit attenuated, with mock-vaccinated hamsters. Our results support the use of mRNA-1273 in a 2-dose schedule and provide insight into the potential responses within the lungs of vaccinated humans who are exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
Peptide immunogens provide an approach to focus antibody responses to specific neutralizing sites on the HIV envelope protein (Env) trimer or on other pathogens. However, the physical characteristics ...of peptide immunogens can limit their pharmacokinetic and immunological properties. Here, we have designed synthetic "star" nanoparticles based on biocompatible N-(2-hydroxypropyl)methacrylamide (HPMA)-based polymer arms extending from a poly(amidoamine) (PAMAM) dendrimer core. In mice, these star nanoparticles trafficked to lymph nodes (LNs) by 4 hours following vaccination, where they were taken up by subcapsular macrophages and then resident dendritic cells (DCs). Immunogenicity optimization studies revealed a correlation of immunogen density with antibody titers. Furthermore, the co-delivery of Env variable loop 3 (V3) and T-helper peptides induced titers that were 2 logs higher than if the peptides were given in separate nanoparticles. Finally, we performed a nonhuman primate (NHP) study using a V3 glycopeptide minimal immunogen that was structurally optimized to be recognized by Env V3/glycan broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). When administered with a potent Toll-like receptor (TLR) 7/8 agonist adjuvant, these nanoparticles elicited high antibody binding titers to the V3 site. Similar to human V3/glycan bnAbs, certain monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) elicited by this vaccine were glycan dependent or targeted the GDIR peptide motif. To improve affinity to native Env trimer affinity, nonhuman primates (NHPs) were boosted with various SOSIP Env proteins; however, significant neutralization was not observed. Taken together, this study provides a new vaccine platform for administration of glycopeptide immunogens for focusing immune responses to specific bnAb epitopes.
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