We present a new technique to create a bin-averaged Hubble diagram (HD) from photometrically identified SN Ia data. The resulting HD is corrected for selection biases and contamination from ...core-collapse (CC) SNe, and can be used to infer cosmological parameters. This method, called "BEAMS with Bias Corrections" (BBC), includes two fitting stages. The first BBC fitting stage uses a posterior distribution that includes multiple SN likelihoods, a Monte Carlo simulation to bias-correct the fitted SALT-II parameters, and CC probabilities determined from a machine-learning technique. The BBC fit determines (1) a bin-averaged HD (average distance versus redshift), and (2) the nuisance parameters and β, which multiply the stretch and color (respectively) to standardize the SN brightness. In the second stage, the bin-averaged HD is fit to a cosmological model where priors can be imposed. We perform high-precision tests of the BBC method by simulating large (150,000 event) data samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program. Our tests include three models of intrinsic scatter, each with two different CC rates. In the BBC fit, the SALT-II nuisance parameters and β are recovered to within 1% of their true values. In the cosmology fit, we determine the dark energy equation of state parameter w using a fixed value of as a prior: averaging over all six tests based on 6 × 150,000 = 900,000 SNe, there is a small w-bias of . Finally, the BBC fitting code is publicly available in the SNANA package.
ABSTRACT Simulations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) surveys are a critical tool for correcting biases in the analysis of SNe Ia to infer cosmological parameters. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations ...include a thorough treatment of observation history, measurement noise, intrinsic scatter models, and selection effects. In this Letter, we improve simulations with a robust technique to evaluate the underlying populations of SN Ia color and stretch that correlate with luminosity. In typical analyses, the standardized SN Ia brightness is determined from linear "Tripp" relations between the light curve color and luminosity and between stretch and luminosity. However, this solution produces Hubble residual biases because intrinsic scatter and measurement noise result in measured color and stretch values that do not follow the Tripp relation. We find a 10 bias (up to 0.3 mag) in Hubble residuals versus color and 5 bias (up to 0.2 mag) in Hubble residuals versus stretch in a joint sample of 920 spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia from PS1, SNLS, SDSS, and several low-z surveys. After we determine the underlying color and stretch distributions, we use simulations to predict and correct the biases in the data. We show that removing these biases has a small impact on the low-z sample, but reduces the intrinsic scatter int from 0.101 to 0.083 in the combined PS1, SNLS, and SDSS sample. Past estimates of the underlying populations were too broad, leading to a small bias in the equation of state of dark energy w of Δw = 0.005.
To examine barriers to initiation and continuation of mental health treatment among individuals with common mental disorders.
Data were from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health ...(WMH) surveys. Representative household samples were interviewed face to face in 24 countries. Reasons to initiate and continue treatment were examined in a subsample (n = 63,678) and analyzed at different levels of clinical severity.
Among those with a DSM-IV disorder in the past 12 months, low perceived need was the most common reason for not initiating treatment and more common among moderate and mild than severe cases. Women and younger people with disorders were more likely to recognize a need for treatment. A desire to handle the problem on one's own was the most common barrier among respondents with a disorder who perceived a need for treatment (63.8%). Attitudinal barriers were much more important than structural barriers to both initiating and continuing treatment. However, attitudinal barriers dominated for mild-moderate cases and structural barriers for severe cases. Perceived ineffectiveness of treatment was the most commonly reported reason for treatment drop-out (39.3%), followed by negative experiences with treatment providers (26.9% of respondents with severe disorders).
Low perceived need and attitudinal barriers are the major barriers to seeking and staying in treatment among individuals with common mental disorders worldwide. Apart from targeting structural barriers, mainly in countries with poor resources, increasing population mental health literacy is an important endeavor worldwide.
Little is known about the prevalence or correlates of DSM-IV pathological gambling (PG).
Data from the US National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a nationally representative US household ...survey, were used to assess lifetime gambling symptoms and PG along with other DSM-IV disorders. Age of onset (AOO) of each lifetime disorder was assessed retrospectively. AOO reports were used to study associations between temporally primary disorders and the subsequent risk of secondary disorders.
Most respondents (78.4%) reported lifetime gambling. Lifetime problem gambling (at least one Criterion A symptom of PG) (2.3%) and PG (0.6%) were much less common. PG was significantly associated with being young, male, and Non-Hispanic Black. People with PG reported first gambling significantly earlier than non-problem gamblers (mean age 16.7 v. 23.9 years, z=12.7, p<0.001), with gambling problems typically beginning during the mid-20s and persisting for an average of 9.4 years. During this time the largest annual gambling losses averaged US$4800. Onset and persistence of PG were predicted by a variety of prior DSM-IV anxiety, mood, impulse-control and substance use disorders. PG also predicted the subsequent onset of generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and substance dependence. Although none of the NCS-R respondents with PG ever received treatment for gambling problems, 49.0% were treated at some time for other mental disorders.
DSM-IV PG is a comparatively rare, seriously impairing, and undertreated disorder whose symptoms typically start during early adulthood and is frequently secondary to other mental or substance disorders that are associated with both PG onset and persistence.
We present optical light curves, redshifts, and classifications for spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Medium Deep Survey. We detail ...improvements to the PS1 SN photometry, astrometry, and calibration that reduce the systematic uncertainties in the PS1 SN Ia distances. We combine the subset of PS1 SNe Ia (0.03 < z < 0.68) with useful distance estimates of SNe Ia from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), SNLS, and various low-z and Hubble Space Telescope samples to form the largest combined sample of SNe Ia, consisting of a total of SNe Ia in the range of 0.01 < z < 2.3, which we call the "Pantheon Sample." When combining Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements with the Pantheon SN sample, we find and for the wCDM model. When the SN and CMB constraints are combined with constraints from BAO and local H0 measurements, the analysis yields the most precise measurement of dark energy to date: and for the CDM model. Tension with a cosmological constant previously seen in an analysis of PS1 and low-z SNe has diminished after an increase of 2× in the statistics of the PS1 sample, improved calibration and photometry, and stricter light-curve quality cuts. We find that the systematic uncertainties in our measurements of dark energy are almost as large as the statistical uncertainties, primarily due to limitations of modeling the low-redshift sample. This must be addressed for future progress in using SNe Ia to measure dark energy.
The aim was to examine barriers to initiation and continuation of treatment among individuals with common mental disorders in the US general population.
Respondents in the National Comorbidity Survey ...Replication with common 12-month DSM-IV mood, anxiety, substance, impulse control and childhood disorders were asked about perceived need for treatment, structural barriers and attitudinal/evaluative barriers to initiation and continuation of treatment.
Low perceived need was reported by 44.8% of respondents with a disorder who did not seek treatment. Desire to handle the problem on one's own was the most common reason among respondents with perceived need both for not seeking treatment (72.6%) and for dropping out of treatment (42.2%). Attitudinal/evaluative factors were much more important than structural barriers both to initiating (97.4% v. 22.2%) and to continuing (81.9% v. 31.8%) of treatment. Reasons for not seeking treatment varied with illness severity. Low perceived need was a more common reason for not seeking treatment among individuals with mild (57.0%) than moderate (39.3%) or severe (25.9%) disorders, whereas structural and attitudinal/evaluative barriers were more common among respondents with more severe conditions.
Low perceived need and attitudinal/evaluative barriers are the major barriers to treatment seeking and staying in treatment among individuals with common mental disorders. Efforts to increase treatment seeking and reduce treatment drop-out need to take these barriers into consideration as well as to recognize that barriers differ as a function of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.
Despite heightened awareness of the clinical significance of social phobia, information is still lacking about putative subtypes, functional impairment, and treatment-seeking. New epidemiologic data ...on these topics are presented from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R).
The NCS-R is a nationally representative household survey fielded in 2001-2003. The World Health Organization (WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview Version 3.0 (CIDI 3.0) was used to assess 14 performance and interactional fears and DSM-IV social phobia.
The estimated lifetime and 12-month prevalence of social phobia are 12.1% and 7.1% respectively. Performance and interactional fears load onto a single latent factor, and there is little evidence for distinct subtypes based either on the content or the number of fears. Social phobia is associated with significant psychiatric co-morbidity, role impairment, and treatment-seeking, all of which have a dose-response relationship with number of social fears. However, social phobia is the focus of clinical attention in only about half of cases where treatment is obtained. Among non-co-morbid cases, those with the most fears were least likely to receive social phobia treatment.
Social phobia is a common, under-treated disorder that leads to significant functional impairment. Increasing numbers of social fears are associated with increasingly severe manifestations of the disorder.
The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the highest-ranked large space-based mission of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons decadal survey. It is now a NASA mission in formulation with a ...planned launch in the mid 2020s. A primary mission objective is to precisely constrain the nature of dark energy through multiple probes, including Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia). Here, we present the first realistic simulations of the WFIRST SN survey based on current hardware specifications and using open-source tools. We simulate SN light curves and spectra as viewed by the WFIRST wide-field channel (WFC) imager and integral field channel (IFC) spectrometer, respectively. We examine 11 survey strategies with different time allocations between the WFC and IFC, two of which are based upon the strategy described by the WFIRST Science Definition Team, which measures SN distances exclusively from IFC data. We propagate statistical and, crucially, systematic uncertainties to predict the Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit (FoM) for each strategy. Of the strategies investigated, we find the most successful to be WFC focused. However, further work in constraining systematics is required to fully optimize the use of the IFC. Even without improvements to other cosmological probes, the WFIRST SN survey has the potential to increase the FoM by more than an order of magnitude from the current values. Although the survey strategies presented here have not been fully optimized, these initial investigations are an important step in the development of the final hardware design and implementation of the WFIRST mission.
Although depression appears to decrease in late life, this could be due to misattribution of depressive symptom to physical disorders that increase in late life.
We studied age differences in major ...depressive episodes (MDE) in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication, a national survey of the US household population. DSM-IV MDE was defined without organic exclusions or diagnostic hierarchy rules to facilitate analysis of co-morbidity. Physical disorders were assessed with a standard chronic conditions checklist and mental disorders with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) version 3.0.
Lifetime and recent DSM-IV/CIDI MDE were significantly less prevalent among respondents aged 65 years than among younger adults. Recent episode severity, but not duration, was also lower among the elderly. Despite prevalence of mental disorders decreasing with age, co-morbidity of hierarchy-free MDE with these disorders was either highest among the elderly or unrelated to age. Co-morbidity of MDE with physical disorders, in comparison, generally decreased with age despite prevalence of co-morbid physical disorders usually increasing. Somewhat more than half of respondents with 12-month MDE received past-year treatment, but the percentage in treatment was lowest and most concentrated in the general medical sector among the elderly.
Given that physical disorders increase with age independent of depression, their lower associations with MDE in old age argue that causal effects of physical disorders on MDE weaken in old age. This result argues against the suggestion that the low estimated prevalence of MDE among the elderly is due to increased confounding with physical disorders.
Although generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive episode (MDE) are known to be highly co-morbid, little prospective research has examined whether these two disorders predict the ...subsequent first onset or persistence of the other or the extent to which other predictors explain the time-lagged associations between GAD and MDE.
Data were analyzed from the nationally representative two-wave panel sample of 5001 respondents who participated in the 1990-1992 National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) and the 2001-2003 NCS follow-up survey. Both surveys assessed GAD and MDE. The baseline NCS also assessed three sets of risk factors that are considered here: childhood adversities, parental history of mental-substance disorders, and respondent personality.
Baseline MDE significantly predicted subsequent GAD onset but not persistence. Baseline GAD significantly predicted subsequent MDE onset and persistence. The associations of each disorder with the subsequent onset of the other attenuated with time since onset of the temporally primary disorder, but remained significant for over a decade after this onset. The risk factors predicted onset more than persistence. Meaningful variation was found in the strength and consistency of associations between risk factors and the two disorders. Controls for risk factors did not substantially reduce the net cross-lagged associations of the disorders with each other.
The existence of differences in risk factors for GAD and MDE argues against the view that the two disorders are merely different manifestations of a single underlying internalizing syndrome or that GAD is merely a prodrome, residual, or severity marker of MDE.
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