THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Pan, Hua-Lu ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
08/2010, Letnik:
91, Številka:
8
Journal Article
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The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled ...atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice model has three layers. The CFSR atmospheric model has observed variations in carbon dioxide (CO₂) over the 1979–2009 period, together with changes in aerosols and other trace gases and solar variations. Most available in situ and satellite observations were included in the CFSR. Satellite observations were used in radiance form, rather than retrieved values, and were bias corrected with “spin up” runs at full resolution, taking into account variable CO₂ concentrations. This procedure enabled the smooth transitions of the climate record resulting from evolutionary changes in the satellite observing system.
CFSR atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface output products are available at an hourly time resolution and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude. The CFSR data will be distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NCAR. This reanalysis will serve many purposes, including providing the basis for most of the NCEP Climate Prediction Center's operational climate products by defining the mean states of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice over the next 30-yr climate normal (1981–2010); providing initial conditions for historical forecasts that are required to calibrate operational NCEP climate forecasts (from week 2 to 9 months); and providing estimates and diagnoses of the Earth's climate state over the satellite data period for community climate research.
Preliminary analysis of the CFSR output indicates a product that is far superior in most respects to the reanalysis of the mid-1990s. The previous NCEP–NCAR reanalyses have been among the most used NCEP products in history; there is every reason to believe the CFSR will supersede these older products both in scope and quality, because it is higher in time and space resolution, covers the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, and was executed in a coupled mode with a more modern data assimilation system and forecast model.
Some real-time radiosonde reports are now available with higher vertical resolution and higher precision than the alphanumeric TEMP code. There are also extra metadata; for example, the software ...version may indicate whether humidity corrections have been applied at the station. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers and other users need to start using the new Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) reports because the alphanumeric codes are being withdrawn. TEMP code has various restrictions and complexities introduced when telecommunication speed and costs were overriding concerns; one consequence is minor temperature rounding errors. In some ways BUFR reports are simpler: the whole ascent should be contained in a single report. BUFR reports can also include the time and location of each level; an ascent takes about 2 h and the balloon can drift 100 km or more laterally. This modernization is the largest and most complex change to the worldwide reporting of radiosonde observations for many years; international implementation is taking longer than planned and is very uneven. The change brings both opportunities and challenges. The biggest challenge is that the number and quality of the data from radiosonde ascents may suffer if the assessment of the BUFR reports and two-way communication between data producers and data users are not given the priority they require. It is possible that some countries will only attempt to replicate the old reports in the new format, not taking advantage of the benefits, which include easier treatment of radiosonde drift and a better understanding of instrument and processing details, as well as higher resolution.
Abstract
In 2006, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) in collaboration with the Earth System Research Laboratory and the ...National Environmental, Satellite, and Data Information Service (NESDIS). In this work, a description of the RTMA applied to the 5-km resolution conterminous U.S. grid of the National Digital Forecast Database is given. Its two-dimensional variational data assimilation (2DVAR) component used to analyze near-surface observations is described in detail, and a brief discussion of the remapping of the NCEP stage II quantitative precipitation amount and NESDIS Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder effective cloud amount to the 5-km grid is offered. Terrain-following background error covariances are used with the 2DVAR approach, which produces gridded fields of 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, 2-m dewpoint, 10-m U and V wind components, and surface pressure. The estimate of the analysis uncertainty via the Lanczos method is briefly described. The strength of the 2DVAR is illustrated by (i) its ability to analyze a June 2007 cold temperature pool over the Washington, D.C., area; (ii) its fairly good analysis of a December 2008 mid-Atlantic region high-wind event that started from a very weak first guess; and (iii) its successful recovery of the finescale moisture features in a January 2010 case study over southern California. According to a cross-validation analysis for a 15-day period during November 2009, root-mean-square error improvements over the first guess range from 16% for wind speed to 45% for specific humidity.
WSR-88D Radar Data Processing at NCEP Liu, Shun; DiMego, Geoff; Guan, Shucai ...
Weather and forecasting,
12/2016, Letnik:
31, Številka:
6
Journal Article
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Abstract
Real-time access to level II radar data became available in May 2005 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). Using these real-time data in ...operational data assimilation requires the data be processed reliably and efficiently through rigorous data quality controls. To this end, advanced radar data quality control techniques developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) are combined into a comprehensive radar data processing system at NCEP. Techniques designed to create a high-resolution reflectivity mosaic developed at the NSSL are also adopted and installed within the NCEP radar data processing system to generate hourly 3D reflectivity mosaics and 2D-derived products. The processed radar radial velocity and 3D reflectivity mosaics are ingested into NCEP’s data assimilation systems to improve operational numerical weather predictions. The 3D reflectivity mosaics and 2D-derived products are also used for verification of high-resolution numerical weather prediction. The NCEP radar data processing system is described.
Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1981.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves ...118-121).
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