Coronary artery disease is the leading global cause of mortality. Long recognized to be heritable, recent advances have started to unravel the genetic architecture of the disease. Common variant ...association studies have linked approximately 60 genetic loci to coronary risk. Large-scale gene sequencing efforts and functional studies have facilitated a better understanding of causal risk factors, elucidated underlying biology and informed the development of new therapeutics. Moving forwards, genetic testing could enable precision medicine approaches by identifying subgroups of patients at increased risk of coronary artery disease or those with a specific driving pathophysiology in whom a therapeutic or preventive approach would be most useful.
Mendelian Randomization Emdin, Connor A; Khera, Amit V; Kathiresan, Sekar
JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association,
2017-Nov-21, Letnik:
318, Številka:
19
Journal Article
Abstract
Aims
The aim of this study was to investigate the causal relationship and evidence of an association between increased adiposity and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events ...or mortality.
Methods and results
Observational (informing association) and Mendelian randomization (MR) (informing causality) studies were assessed to gather mutually complementary insights and elucidate perplexing epidemiological relationships. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and MR studies that were published until January 2021 and evaluated the association between obesity-related indices and CVD risk were searched. Twelve systematic reviews with 53 meta-analyses results (including over 501 cohort studies) and 12 MR studies were included in the analysis. A body mass index (BMI) increase was associated with higher risks of coronary heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, all-cause stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, ischaemic stroke, hypertension, aortic valve stenosis, pulmonary embolism, and venous thrombo-embolism. The MR study results demonstrated a causal effect of obesity on all indices but stroke. The CVD risk increase for every 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI varied from 10% relative risk (RR) 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.21; certainty of evidence, low for haemorrhagic stroke to 49% (RR 1.49; 95% CI 1.40–1.60; certainty of evidence, high) for hypertension. The all-cause and CVD-specific mortality risks increased with adiposity in cohorts, but the MR studies demonstrated no causal effect of adiposity on all-cause mortality.
Conclusion
High adiposity is associated with increased CVD risk despite divergent evidence gradients. Adiposity was a causal risk factor for CVD except all-cause mortality and stroke. Half (49%; 26/53) of the associations were supported by high-level evidence. The associations were consistent between sexes and across global regions. This study provides guidance on how to integrate evidence from observational (association) and genetics-driven (causation) studies accumulated to date, to enable a more reliable interpretation of epidemiological relationships.
Graphical Abstract
Observational studies (informing associations) and Mendelian randomization studies (informing causality) provided mutually complementary insight and enabled a more reliable interpretation of perplexing epidemiological relationships. This figure was constructed based on the summary of evidence shown in Table 1.
Severe obesity is a rapidly growing global health threat. Although often attributed to unhealthy lifestyle choices or environmental factors, obesity is known to be heritable and highly polygenic; the ...majority of inherited susceptibility is related to the cumulative effect of many common DNA variants. Here we derive and validate a new polygenic predictor comprised of 2.1 million common variants to quantify this susceptibility and test this predictor in more than 300,000 individuals ranging from middle age to birth. Among middle-aged adults, we observe a 13-kg gradient in weight and a 25-fold gradient in risk of severe obesity across polygenic score deciles. In a longitudinal birth cohort, we note minimal differences in birthweight across score deciles, but a significant gradient emerged in early childhood and reached 12 kg by 18 years of age. This new approach to quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity affords new opportunities for clinical prevention and mechanistic assessment.
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•A genome-wide polygenic score can quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity•Polygenic score effect on weight emerges early in life and increases into adulthood•Effect of polygenic score can be similar to a rare, monogenic obesity mutation•High polygenic score is a strong risk factor for severe obesity and associated diseases
A genome-wide polygenic score quantifies inherited susceptibility to obesity, integrating information from 2.1 million common genetic variants to identify adults at risk of severe obesity.
...individuals with a high ISCAD might have subclinical coronary artery disease that, if diagnosed, would allow for preventive therapies. ...future work might identify the value of a machine learning ...marker of coronary artery disease even among those who are already diagnosed. ...biologically aware data modalities should be leveraged. ...gaps need to be filled in with regard to existing standards of care.
Polygenic risk scores suffer reduced accuracy in non-European populations, exacerbating health disparities. We propose PolyPred, a method that improves cross-population polygenic risk scores by ...combining two predictors: a new predictor that leverages functionally informed fine-mapping to estimate causal effects (instead of tagging effects), addressing linkage disequilibrium differences, and BOLT-LMM, a published predictor. When a large training sample is available in the non-European target population, we propose PolyPred
, which further incorporates the non-European training data. We applied PolyPred to 49 diseases/traits in four UK Biobank populations using UK Biobank British training data, and observed relative improvements versus BOLT-LMM ranging from +7% in south Asians to +32% in Africans, consistent with simulations. We applied PolyPred
to 23 diseases/traits in UK Biobank east Asians using both UK Biobank British and Biobank Japan training data, and observed improvements of +24% versus BOLT-LMM and +12% versus PolyPred. Summary statistics-based analogs of PolyPred and PolyPred
attained similar improvements.
Polygenic scores quantify inherited risk by integrating information from many common sites of DNA variation into a single number. Rapid increases in the scale of genetic association studies and new ...statistical algorithms have enabled development of polygenic scores that meaningfully measure-as early as birth-risk of coronary artery disease. These newer-generation polygenic scores identify up to 8% of the population with triple the normal risk based on genetic variation alone, and these individuals cannot be identified on the basis of family history or clinical risk factors alone. For those identified with increased genetic risk, evidence supports risk reduction with at least two interventions, adherence to a healthy lifestyle and cholesterol-lowering therapies, that can substantially reduce risk. Alongside considerable enthusiasm for the potential of polygenic risk estimation to enable a new era of preventive clinical medicine is recognition of a need for ongoing research into how best to ensure equitable performance across diverse ancestries, how and in whom to assess the scores in clinical practice, as well as randomized trials to confirm clinical utility.
Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to individual-level risk of coronary artery disease. The extent to which increased genetic risk can be offset by a healthy lifestyle is unknown.
Using a ...polygenic score of DNA sequence polymorphisms, we quantified genetic risk for coronary artery disease in three prospective cohorts - 7814 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 21,222 in the Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS), and 22,389 in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS) - and in 4260 participants in the cross-sectional BioImage Study for whom genotype and covariate data were available. We also determined adherence to a healthy lifestyle among the participants using a scoring system consisting of four factors: no current smoking, no obesity, regular physical activity, and a healthy diet.
The relative risk of incident coronary events was 91% higher among participants at high genetic risk (top quintile of polygenic scores) than among those at low genetic risk (bottom quintile of polygenic scores) (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.75 to 2.09). A favorable lifestyle (defined as at least three of the four healthy lifestyle factors) was associated with a substantially lower risk of coronary events than an unfavorable lifestyle (defined as no or only one healthy lifestyle factor), regardless of the genetic risk category. Among participants at high genetic risk, a favorable lifestyle was associated with a 46% lower relative risk of coronary events than an unfavorable lifestyle (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.63). This finding corresponded to a reduction in the standardized 10-year incidence of coronary events from 10.7% for an unfavorable lifestyle to 5.1% for a favorable lifestyle in ARIC, from 4.6% to 2.0% in WGHS, and from 8.2% to 5.3% in MDCS. In the BioImage Study, a favorable lifestyle was associated with significantly less coronary-artery calcification within each genetic risk category.
Across four studies involving 55,685 participants, genetic and lifestyle factors were independently associated with susceptibility to coronary artery disease. Among participants at high genetic risk, a favorable lifestyle was associated with a nearly 50% lower relative risk of coronary artery disease than was an unfavorable lifestyle. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).
Individuals of South Asian ancestry represent 23% of the global population, corresponding to 1.8 billion people, and have substantially higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared ...with most other ethnicities. US practice guidelines now recognize South Asian ancestry as an important risk-enhancing factor. The magnitude of enhanced risk within the context of contemporary clinical care, the extent to which it is captured by existing risk estimators, and its potential mechanisms warrant additional study.
Within the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, 8124 middle-aged participants of South Asian ancestry and 449 349 participants of European ancestry who were free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease at the time of enrollment were examined. The relationship of ancestry to risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease-defined as myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or ischemic stroke-was assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression, along with examination of a broad range of clinical, anthropometric, and lifestyle mediators.
The mean age at study enrollment was 57 years, and 202 405 (44%) were male. Over a median follow-up of 11 years, 554 of 8124 (6.8%) individuals of South Asian ancestry experienced an atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event compared with 19 756 of 449 349 (4.4%) individuals of European ancestry, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.03 (95% CI, 1.86-2.22;
<0.001). This higher relative risk was largely consistent across a range of age, sex, and clinical subgroups. Despite the >2-fold higher observed risk, the predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease according to the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort equations and QRISK3 equations was nearly identical for individuals of South Asian and European ancestry. Adjustment for a broad range of clinical, anthropometric, and lifestyle risk factors led to only modest attenuation of the observed hazard ratio to 1.45 (95% CI, 1.28-1.65,
<0.001). Assessment of variance explained by 18 candidate risk factors suggested greater importance of hypertension, diabetes, and central adiposity in South Asian individuals.
Within a large prospective study, South Asian individuals had substantially higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared with individuals of European ancestry, and this risk was not captured by the Pooled Cohort Equations.
Genetic variation can predispose to disease both through (i) monogenic risk variants that disrupt a physiologic pathway with large effect on disease and (ii) polygenic risk that involves many ...variants of small effect in different pathways. Few studies have explored the interplay between monogenic and polygenic risk. Here, we study 80,928 individuals to examine whether polygenic background can modify penetrance of disease in tier 1 genomic conditions - familial hypercholesterolemia, hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, and Lynch syndrome. Among carriers of a monogenic risk variant, we estimate substantial gradients in disease risk based on polygenic background - the probability of disease by age 75 years ranged from 17% to 78% for coronary artery disease, 13% to 76% for breast cancer, and 11% to 80% for colon cancer. We propose that accounting for polygenic background is likely to increase accuracy of risk estimation for individuals who inherit a monogenic risk variant.
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