Emerging vector-borne diseases are an important issue in global health. Many vector-borne pathogens have appeared in new regions in the past two decades, while many endemic diseases have increased in ...incidence. Although introductions and emergence of endemic pathogens are often considered to be distinct processes, many endemic pathogens are actually spreading at a local scale coincident with habitat change. We draw attention to key differences between dynamics and disease burden that result from increased pathogen transmission after habitat change and after introduction into new regions. Local emergence is commonly driven by changes in human factors as much as by enhanced enzootic cycles, whereas pathogen invasion results from anthropogenic trade and travel where and when conditions (eg, hosts, vectors, and climate) are suitable for a pathogen. Once a pathogen is established, ecological factors related to vector characteristics can shape the evolutionary selective pressure and result in increased use of people as transmission hosts. We describe challenges inherent in the control of vector-borne zoonotic diseases and some emerging non-traditional strategies that could be effective in the long term.
Many invasive species that have been spread through the globalization of trade and travel are pathogens. A paradigmatic case is the introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999. A ...decade of research on the ecology and evolution of WNV includes three findings that provide insight into the outcome of future pathogen introductions. First, WNV transmission in North America is highest in urbanized and agricultural habitats, in part because the hosts and vectors of WNV are abundant in human-modified areas. Second, after its introduction, the virus quickly adapted to infect local mosquito vectors more efficiently than the originally introduced strain. Third, highly focused feeding patterns of the mosquito vectors of WNV result in unexpected host species being important for transmission. This research provides a framework for predicting and preventing the emergence of foreign vector-borne pathogens.
Disease has caused striking declines in wildlife and threatens numerous species with extinction. Theory suggests that the ecology and density‐dependence of transmission dynamics can determine the ...probability of disease‐caused extinction, but few empirical studies have simultaneously examined multiple factors influencing disease impact. We show, in hibernating bats infected with Geomyces destructans, that impacts of disease on solitary species were lower in smaller populations, whereas in socially gregarious species declines were equally severe in populations spanning four orders of magnitude. However, as these gregarious species declined, we observed decreases in social group size that reduced the likelihood of extinction. In addition, disease impacts in these species increased with humidity and temperature such that the coldest and driest roosts provided initial refuge from disease. These results expand our theoretical framework and provide an empirical basis for determining which host species are likely to be driven extinct while management action is still possible.
The recent introduction of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats) from Eurasia to North America has resulted in the collapse of North American bat ...populations and restructured species communities. The long evolutionary history between P. destructans and bats in Eurasia makes understanding host life history essential to uncovering the ecology of P. destructans. In this Review, we combine information on pathogen and host biology to understand the patterns of P. destructans spread, seasonal transmission ecology, the pathogenesis of white-nose syndrome and the cross-scale impact from individual hosts to ecosystems. Collectively, this research highlights how early pathogen detection and quantification of host impacts has accelerated the understanding of this newly emerging infectious disease.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged the workings of human society, but in doing so, it advanced our understanding of the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. ...Fluctuating transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) demonstrated the highly dynamic nature of human social behavior, often without government intervention. Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the first two years following spillover resulted primarily in increased transmissibility, while in the third year, the globally dominant virus variants had all evolved substantial immune evasion. The combination of viral evolution and the buildup of host immunity through vaccination and infection greatly decreased the realized virulence of SARS-CoV-2 due to the age dependence of disease severity. The COVID-19 pandemic was exacerbated by presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and highly heterogeneous transmission, as well as highly variable disease severity and the broad host range of SARS-CoV-2. Insights and tools developed during the COVID-19 pandemic could provide a stronger scientific basis for preventing, mitigating, and controlling future pandemics.
The Earth's ecosystems have been altered by anthropogenic processes, including land use, harvesting populations, species introductions and climate change. These anthropogenic processes greatly alter ...plant and animal communities, thereby changing transmission of the zoonotic pathogens they carry. Biodiversity conservation may be a potential win–win strategy for maintaining ecosystem health and protecting public health, yet the causal evidence to support this strategy is limited. Evaluating conservation as a viable public health intervention requires answering four questions: (i) Is there a general and causal relationship between biodiversity and pathogen transmission, and if so, which direction is it in? (ii) Does increased pathogen diversity with increased host biodiversity result in an increase in total disease burden? (iii) Do the net benefits of biodiversity conservation to human well-being outweigh the benefits that biodiversity-degrading activities, such as agriculture and resource utilization, provide? (iv) Are biodiversity conservation interventions cost-effective when compared to other options employed in standard public health approaches? Here, we summarize current knowledge on biodiversity–zoonotic disease relationships and outline a research plan to address the gaps in our understanding for each of these four questions. Developing practical and self-sustaining biodiversity conservation interventions will require significant investment in disease ecology research to determine when and where they will be effective.
This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.
Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and ...isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.
Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, and the number of reported cases has increased in many regions as landscapes have been ...altered. Although there has been extensive work on the ecology and epidemiology of this disease in both Europe and North America, substantial uncertainty exists about fundamental aspects that determine spatial and temporal variation in both disease risk and human incidence, which hamper effective and efficient prevention and control. Here we describe areas of consensus that can be built on, identify areas of uncertainty and outline research needed to fill these gaps to facilitate predictive models of disease risk and the development of novel disease control strategies. Key areas of uncertainty include: (i) the precise influence of deer abundance on tick abundance, (ii) how tick populations are regulated, (iii) assembly of host communities and tick-feeding patterns across different habitats, (iv) reservoir competence of host species, and (v) pathogenicity for humans of different genotypes of Borrelia burgdorferi. Filling these knowledge gaps will improve Lyme disease prevention and control and provide general insights into the drivers and dynamics of this emblematic multi-host–vector-borne zoonotic disease.
This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.
White-nose syndrome has devastated bat populations in eastern North America. In Midwestern United States, prevalence increased quickly in the first year of invasion (2012-13) but with low population ...declines. In the second year (2013-14), environmental contamination led to earlier infection and high population declines. Interventions must be implemented before or soon after fungal invasion to prevent population collapse.
Deer, predators, and the emergence of Lyme disease Levi, Taal; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Mangel, Marc ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
07/2012, Letnik:
109, Številka:
27
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, and both the annual incidence and geographic range are increasing. The emergence of Lyme disease has been attributed to a ...century-long recovery of deer, an important reproductive host for adult ticks. However, a growing body of evidence suggests that Lyme disease risk may now be more dynamically linked to fluctuations in the abundance of small-mammal hosts that are thought to infect the majority of ticks. The continuing and rapid increase in Lyme disease over the past two decades, long after the recolonization of deer, suggests that other factors, including changes in the ecology of small-mammal hosts may be responsible for the continuing emergence of Lyme disease. We present a theoretical model that illustrates how reductions in small-mammal predators can sharply increase Lyme disease risk. We then show that increases in Lyme disease in the northeastern and midwestern United States over the past three decades are frequently uncorrelated with deer abundance and instead coincide with a range-wide decline of a key small-mammal predator, the red fox, likely due to expansion of coyote populations. Further, across four states we find poor spatial correlation between deer abundance and Lyme disease incidence, but coyote abundance and fox rarity effectively predict the spatial distribution of Lyme disease in New York. These results suggest that changes in predator communities may have cascading impacts that facilitate the emergence of zoonotic diseases, the vast majority of which rely on hosts that occupy low trophic levels.
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