While several nuclear energy newcomer (NEN) countries have shown interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a potential energy source, this interest can generate new uncertainties regarding future ...nuclear weapons proliferation risks. Therefore, this research seeks to determine whether future SMR deployment in NEN countries will contribute to nuclear weapons proliferation, and how the risks can be mitigated. This research uses the Bayesian network statistical approach in conjunction with surveys of experts to assess nuclear proliferation risks when NEN countries deploy SMRs or a large commercial nuclear reactor. The results indicate that an NEN with a strong commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation norms and a stable security environment will experience a lower probability of having higher proliferation risks relative to the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, we demonstrate that experts anticipate a minimal escalation in proliferation risks across different SMR types. Instead, the results show that enrichment or reprocessing (E&R) facilities, if associated with an SMR, exert a substantial influence on proliferation risks. Lastly, implementing a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) retrieval system could serve as an option to mitigate proliferation risks in an NEN country. These findings offer insights for leading nuclear supplier countries to alleviate the potential proliferation risks by NEN countries.
The pressing need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions has stimulated a renewed interest in nuclear energy worldwide. However, while numerous countries have shown interest in nuclear power over the ...course of history, many of them have not continued their pursuit and chosen to defer or abandon their peaceful nuclear power projects. Scrapping a national nuclear power program after making initial efforts implies significant challenges in such a course or a waste of national resources. Therefore, this study aims to identify the crucial factors that influence a country's decision to terminate or hold off its peaceful nuclear power programs. Our empirical analyses demonstrate that major nuclear accidents and leadership changes are significant factors that lead countries to terminate or defer their nuclear power programs. Additionally, we highlight that domestic politics (democracy), lack of military alliance with major nuclear suppliers, low electricity demand, and national energy security environments (energy import, crude oil price) can hamper a country's possibility of regaining interest in a nuclear power program after it has been scrapped, suspended, or deferred. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the energy sector as they strive to balance the competing demands of energy security, and environmental sustainability.
According to the Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan announced in 2017 by the South Korean government, the electricity share of renewable energy will be expanded to 20% of the total electricity ...generation by 2030. Given the intermittency of electricity generation from renewable energy, realization of such a plan presents challenges to managing South Korea's isolated national electric grid and implies potentially large excess electricity generation in certain situations. The purpose of this study is: 1) to develop a model to accurately simulate the effects of excess electricity generation from renewables which would arise during the transition, and 2) to propose strategies to manage excess electricity generation through effective utilization of domestic electricity generating capabilities. Our results show that in periods of greater PV and wind power, namely the spring and fall seasons, the frequency of excess electricity generation increases, while electricity demand decreases. This being the case, flexible operation of coal and nuclear power plants along with LNG and pumped-storage hydroelectricity can be used to counterbalance the excess electricity generation from renewables. In addition, nuclear energy plays an important role in reducing CO2 emissions and electricity costs unlike the fossil fuel-based generation sources outlined in the 8th Basic Plan.
By analyzing bilateral cooperation involving civilian nuclear technology from 2000 to 2015, this study finds potential proliferation uncertainty in recent technological nuclear cooperation. We use ...the dataset that divides technological nuclear cooperation into two categories - concrete and supportive, where concrete cooperation involves the more in-depth transfer of technology related to nuclear power and fuel cycle than supportive cooperation. We employ multinomial regression analysis to investigate what economic, political, military, and non-proliferation considerations enable more concrete nuclear cooperation. Our empirical results suggest that potential proliferation uncertainty exists in concrete cooperation. While concrete nuclear cooperation, in general, requires compliance with non-proliferation norms more strictly than supportive cooperation, examining military factors together with the compliance to the non-proliferation norms shows some concerns. Specifically, we find that suppliers of concrete nuclear cooperation have overlooked weak compliance with some non-proliferation norms when there exist common military interests. We also show that client countries with high military expenditure are more likely to engage in more concrete nuclear cooperation. Lastly, we find that supplier and client countries tend to complement their weak military alliance with more concrete nuclear cooperation. The findings underscore the responsibility of major suppliers and the international community for nuclear non-proliferation.
•We study recent civilian nuclear cooperation to assess proliferation uncertainty.•We examine military & non-proliferation factors in technological nuclear cooperation.•We find potential proliferation uncertainty in technological nuclear cooperation.•We find that some non-proliferation norms have been ineffective.
•We analyze public opinion change in South Korea’s deliberation on a nuclear issue.•We examine what factors were significant in each direction of opinion change.•Depending on the direction of opinion ...change, significant factors varied.•The role of learning is nonlinear since it depends on the direction of opinion change.•We find that learning through deliberation deepens political divides on the issue.
This study analyzes public opinion change on energy with a detailed examination of the directional differences using comprehensive national data. The data comes from the recent deliberative polling process in South Korea on the construction of Shin-Kori nuclear reactor units 5 and 6. We specifically examined why certain people change from the “oppose” to “support” and vice versa by considering the nonlinearity effects of the demographic factors and knowledge acquired during the deliberation. By employing logistic regression analysis, we find that for the change of opinion from ‘resume/defer (not stop)’ to ‘stop’ construction of Shin-Kori units 5 and 6, the level of education, political ideology, household income, gender, and knowledge gain were found to be significant factors. On the other hand, the level of education, age, and political ideology were significant factors influencing the change of opinion from ‘stop/defer (not resume)’ to ‘resume’ construction. In addition, we find that the role of learning depends on political ideology: knowledge gain intensified the political divides on the issue. We also show that the significance of those demographic factors, especially political ideology, may come from the difference in risk perception and economic/stability assessment of the Shin-Kori nuclear power plants. The findings provide a deepened insight for policymakers around the world who may pursue public consensus building on national energy transition.
The pressing need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions has stimulated a renewed interest in nuclear energy worldwide. However, while numerous countries have shown interest in nuclear power over the ...course of history, many of them have not continued their pursuit and chosen to defer or abandon their peaceful nuclear power projects. Scrapping a national nuclear power program after making initial efforts implies significant challenges in such a course or a waste of national resources. Therefore, this study aims to identify the crucial factors that influence a country's decision to terminate or hold off its peaceful nuclear power programs. Our empirical analyses demonstrate that major nuclear accidents and leadership changes are significant factors that lead countries to terminate or defer their nuclear power programs. Additionally, we highlight that domestic politics (democracy), lack of military alliance with major nuclear suppliers, low electricity demand, and national energy security environments (energy import, crude oil price) can hamper a country's possibility of regaining interest in a nuclear power program after it has been scrapped, suspended, or deferred. The findings of this study have significant implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the energy sector as they strive to balance the competing demands of energy security, and environmental sustainability.
Previous studies have explored the determinants of the nuclear proliferation levels (Explore, Pursue, and Acquire). However, these studies have weaknesses, including endogeneity and multicollinearity ...among the independent variables. This resulted in tentative predictions of a country's nuclear program capabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a tool to predict future nuclear proliferation in a country, and thus facilitate its prevention. Specifically, we examine how applying deep learning algorithms can enhance nuclear proliferation risk prediction. We collected important determinants from the literature that were found to be significant in explaining nuclear proliferation. These determinants include economics, domestic and international security and threats, nuclear fuel cycle capacity, and tacit knowledge development in a country. We used multilayer perceptrons in the classification model. The results suggest that detecting a country's proliferation behavior using deep learning algorithms may be less tentative and more viable than other existing methods. This study provides a policy tool to identify a country's nuclear proliferation risk pattern. This information is important for developing efforts/strategies to hamper a potential proliferating country's attempt toward developing a nuclear weapons program.
According to the Renewable Energy 3020 Implementation Plan announced in 2017 by the South Korean government, the electricity share of renewable energy will be expanded to 20% of the total electricity ...generation by 2030. Given the intermittency of electricity generation from renewable energy, realization of such a plan presents challenges to managing South Korea's isolated national electric grid and implies potentially large excess electricity generation in certain situations. The purpose of this study is: 1) to develop a model to accurately simulate the effects of excess electricity generation from renewables which would arise during the transition, and 2) to propose strategies to manage excess electricity generation through effective utilization of domestic electricity generating capabilities. Our results show that in periods of greater PV and wind power, namely the spring and fall seasons, the frequency of excess electricity generation increases, while electricity demand decreases. This being the case, flexible operation of coal and nuclear power plants along with LNG and pumped-storage hydroelectricity can be used to counterbalance the excess electricity generation from renewables. In addition, nuclear energy plays an important role in reducing CO2 emissions and electricity costs unlike the fossil fuel-based generation sources outlined in the 8th Basic Plan.
How did North Korea's nuclear research community develop in the context of its science and technology policy, and how did this development reflect progress in North Korea's nuclear program? We ...conduct network analysis using a dataset of North Korean domestic scientific journal articles to assess the structure of the North Korea's nuclear research communities from the beginning of the country's nuclear program until its capability “completion” in 2018. We find that the networks showed increasing internal density of research collaborations, suggesting North Korea was able to improve knowledge transfer, and consolidate its nuclear research community over time. Furthermore, different areas of nuclear‐related research increased interconnectivity over time, particularly in the run‐up to milestones in North Korea's nuclear development. We close with implications for engaging with North Korea on science and technology issues.
摘要
朝鲜的核研究社区在其科学和技术政策情境下是如何发展的，并且这种发展如何反映朝鲜核计划的进展？我们对一项关于朝鲜国内科学杂志文章的数据集进行网络分析，以期评估从朝鲜核计划开始到2018年核能力“完成”期间该国核研究社区的结构。我们发现，核研究网络的内部协作密度有所增加，这说明在此期间朝鲜能逐步提升知识转移并巩固其核研究社区。此外，核能相关研究的不同领域逐渐提升了互通性，尤其在朝鲜核发展里程碑的准备阶段。我们的结论为研究朝鲜科学与技术问题一事提供了意义。
Resumen
¿Cómo se desarrolló la comunidad de investigación nuclear de Corea del Norte en el contexto de su política de ciencia y tecnología, y cómo reflejó este desarrollo el progreso en el programa nuclear de Corea del Norte? Realizamos análisis de red utilizando un conjunto de datos de artículos de revistas científicas nacionales de Corea del Norte para evaluar la estructura de las comunidades de investigación nuclear de Corea del Norte desde el comienzo del programa nuclear del país hasta su ’finalización’ de capacidad en 2018. Encontramos que las redes mostraron un aumento interno densidad de colaboraciones de investigación, lo que sugiere que Corea del Norte pudo mejorar la transferencia de conocimientos y consolidar su comunidad de investigación nuclear con el tiempo. Además, diferentes áreas de la investigación relacionada con la energía nuclear aumentaron la interconectividad a lo largo del tiempo, particularmente en el período previo a hitos en el desarrollo nuclear de Corea del Norte. Cerramos con las implicaciones de colaborar con Corea del Norte en cuestiones de ciencia y tecnología.
