This study investigates changes in erosion rates at high temporal and spatial resolution for three example catchments in West, North and East Saxony/Germany under climate change. The study is based ...on the A1B IPCC-scenario and model outputs of four models: ECHAM5-OPYC3 (general circulation model), WETTREG2010 (statistical downscaling climate model), METVER (agricultural model for calculation of daily initial soil moisture) and EROSION 3D as a process-based soil erosion model. Simulations were run for measured and projected single rainstorm events at a temporal resolution of 5min. Soil loss was simulated for two future periods from 2041 to 2050 and 2091 to 2100, respectively. Results were compared to simulated soil loss based on 10years of measured climate data from 1989 to 2007. Expected changes in land use, soil management due to changed crop rotation and shifted harvest date are taken into account as scenario studies.
Outputs of the regional climate model show that the total number of rainstorms with intensities≥0.1mm/min is decreasing in future while rainfall intensities are increasing. Periods of heavy rainstorms will mostly shift from summer to autumn. While the total amount of annual rainfall is decreasing and the duration of sunshine is strongly increasing, soils become drier. Dry periods will appear more often in late autumn.
Results of the simulations with EROSION 3D quantify the impacts of climate change on erosion rates. Climate change will lead to a significant increase of soil loss by 2050 and a partial decrease by 2100. Not adapting soil management and land use will aggravate erosion rates.
The impacts of land use, soil management and soil properties on soil erosion by water are higher than the effects of changed precipitation patterns. Current soil protection measures are suitable for soil conservation under conditions of a changed climate.
•The study investigates changes in erosion rates at high temporal resolution.•The number of heavy rainstorms will decrease while rain-intensities will increase.•Periods of heavy rainstorms will mostly shift from summer to autumn and spring.•Climate change will lead to a significant increase of soil loss by 2050.•Not adapting soil management and land use will aggravate erosion rates.
The application of climate change impact assessment (CCIA) studies in general and especially the linkages between different actor groups typically involved is often not trivial and subject to many ...limitations and uncertainties. Disciplinary issues like competing downscaling approaches, imperfect climate and impact model data and uncertainty propagation as well as the selection of appropriate data sets are only one part of the story. Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary challenges add to these, as climate data and impact model data provision and their usage require at least a minimum of common work and shared understanding among actors. Here, we provide the VALUE perspective on current disciplinary challenges and limitations at the downscaling interface and elaborate transdisciplinary issues that hamper a proper working downscaling interface. The perspective is partly based on a survey on user needs of downscaled data that was distributed among 62 participants across Europe involving 22 sectors. Partly, it is based on the exchanges and experiences gained during the lifetime of VALUE that brought together different actor groups of different disciplines: climate modellers, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders. We outline a sketch that summarizes the linkages between the main identified actor groups: climate model data providers, impact modellers and societal users. We summarize review and structure current actors groups, needs and issues. We argue that this structuring enables involved actors to tackle these issues in a more organized and hence effective way. A key solution to several difficulties at the downscaling interface is to our understanding the development of guidelines based on benchmark tests like the VALUE framework. In addition, fostering communication between actor groups—and financing this communication—is essential to obtain the best possible CCIA as a prerequisite for robust adaptation.
Constellation of actors at the downscaling interface, illustrating the transdisciplinary setting, the different sectors actors may recruit from, as well as the main perspective the actors have on the data/information.
•Consistent climate outlook based on subseasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions.•Basic and expert predictions offer two levels of complexity for different users.•Statistical downscaling provides ...high-resolution predictions for Germany.•Predictions are displayed in conjunction with a user-oriented skill traffic light.•Climate service was developed in close user cooperation via surveys and workshops.
The climate predictions website of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, https://www.dwd.de/climatepredictions) presents a consistent operational outlook for the coming weeks, months and years, focusing on the needs of German users. At global scale, subseasonal predictions from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as well as seasonal and decadal predictions from the DWD are used. Statistical downscaling is applied to achieve high resolution over Germany. Lead-time dependent bias correction is performed on all time scales. Additionally, decadal predictions are recalibrated.
The website offers ensemble mean and probabilistic predictions for temperature and precipitation combined with their skill (mean squared error skill score, ranked probability skill score). Two levels of complexity are offered: basic climate predictions display simple, regionally averaged information for Germany, German regions and cities as maps, time series and tables. The skill is presented as traffic light. Expert climate predictions show complex, gridded predictions for Germany (at high resolution), Europe and the world as maps and time series. The skill is displayed as the size of dots. Their color is related to the signal in the prediction.
The website was developed in cooperation with users from different sectors via surveys, workshops and meetings to guarantee its understandability and usability. The users realize the potential of climate predictions, but some need advice in using probabilistic predictions and skill. Future activities will include the further development of predictions to improve skill (multi-model ensembles, teleconnections), the introduction of additional products (data provision, extremes) and the further clarification of the information (interactivity, video clips).
When carrying out an intercomparison of the methods participating in COST Action 733, particularly when looking at their applications-orientedness, investigating the discriminative power concerning ...target properties is an apt approach. CEC-TC, an alternative classification which builds the patterns from the impact up is presented in the context of such an intercomparison. That method is briefly presented and subsequently discussed in conjunction with other methods that participate in the COST Action.
A system to derive tracks of barometric minima is presented. It is deliberately using coarse input data in space (order of 2°×2°) and time (6-hourly to daily) as well as information from just one ...geopotential level. It is argued that the results are, for one robust in the sense of an assumption of the IMILAST Project that the use of as simple as possible metrics should be strived for and for two tailored to the input from reanalyses and GCMs. The methodology presented is a necessary first step towards an automated storm track recognition scheme which will be employed in a second paper to study the future development of atmospheric dynamics in a changing climate. The process towards obtaining storm tracks is two-fold. In its first step cyclone centers are being identified. The performance of this step requires the existence of closed isolines, i.e., a topology in which a grid-point is surrounded by neighbours which all exhibit higher geopotential. The usage of this topology requirement as well as the constraint of coarse data may lead, though, to limitations in identifying centers in geopotential fields with shallow gradients that may occur in the summer months; moreover, some centers may potentially be missed in case of a configuration in which a small scale storm is located at the perimeter of a deep and very large low (a kind of "dent in a crater wall"). The second step of the process strings the identified cyclone centers together in a meaningful way to form tracks. By way of several examples the capability to identify known storm tracks is shown.
Academic Abstract
One of the key challenges to researching psychological acculturation is the immense heterogeneity in theories and measures. These inconsistencies make it difficult to compare past ...literature, hinder straightforward measurement selections, and stifle theoretical integration. To structure acculturation, we propose to utilize the four basic aspects of human experiences (wanting, feeling, thinking, and doing) as a conceptual framework. We use this framework to build a theory-driven assessment of past theoretical (final N = 92), psychometric (final N = 233), and empirical literature (final N = 530). We find that the framework allows us to examine and compare past conceptualizations. For example, empirical works have understudied the more internal aspects of acculturation (i.e., motivations and feelings) compared with theoretical works. We, then, discuss the framework’s novel insights including its temporal resolution, its comprehensive and cross-cultural structure, and how the framework can aid transparent and functional theories, studies, and interventions going forward.
Public Abstract
This systematic scoping review indicates that the concept of psychological acculturation can be structured in terms of affect (e.g., feeling at home), behavior (e.g., language use), cognition (e.g., ethnic identification), and desire (e.g., independence wish). We find that the framework is useful in structuring past research and helps with new predictions and interventions. We, for example, find a crucial disconnect between theory and practice, which will need to be resolved in the future.
DHX30 is a member of the family of DExH-box helicases, which use ATP hydrolysis to unwind RNA secondary structures. Here we identified six different de novo missense mutations in DHX30 in twelve ...unrelated individuals affected by global developmental delay (GDD), intellectual disability (ID), severe speech impairment and gait abnormalities. While four mutations are recurrent, two are unique with one affecting the codon of one recurrent mutation. All amino acid changes are located within highly conserved helicase motifs and were found to either impair ATPase activity or RNA recognition in different in vitro assays. Moreover, protein variants exhibit an increased propensity to trigger stress granule (SG) formation resulting in global translation inhibition. Thus, our findings highlight the prominent role of translation control in development and function of the central nervous system and also provide molecular insight into how DHX30 dysfunction might cause a neurodevelopmental disorder.
Posterior microphthalmos (MCOP) is a rare isolated developmental anomaly of the eye characterized by extreme hyperopia due to short axial length. The population of the Faroe Islands shows a high ...prevalence of an autosomal-recessive form (arMCOP) of the disease. Based on published linkage data, we refined the position of the disease locus (MCOP6) in an interval of 250 kb in chromosome 2q37.1 in two large Faroese families. We detected three different mutations in
PRSS56. Patients of the Faroese families were either homozygous for c.926G>C (p.Trp309Ser) or compound heterozygous for c.926G>C and c.526C>G (p.Arg176Gly), whereas a homozygous 1 bp duplication (c.1066dupC) was identified in five patients with arMCOP from a consanguineous Tunisian family. In one patient with MCOP from the Faroe Islands and in another one from Turkey, no
PRSS56 mutation was detected, suggesting nonallelic heterogeneity of the trait. Using RT-PCR,
PRSS56 transcripts were detected in samples derived from the human adult retina, cornea, sclera, and optic nerve. The expression of the mouse ortholog could be first detected in the eye at E17 and was maintained into adulthood. The predicted PRSS56 protein is a 603 amino acid long secreted trypsin-like serine peptidase. The c.1066dupC is likely to result in a functional null allele, whereas the two point mutations predict the replacement of evolutionary conserved and functionally important residues. Molecular modeling of the p.Trp309Ser mutant suggests that both the affinity and reactivity of the enzyme toward in vivo protein substrates are likely to be substantially reduced.
One challenge of modern intergroup contact research has been the question of when and why an interaction is perceived as positive and improves intergroup relations. We propose to consider the ...perceived fulfillment of the situationally most relevant need. We conducted three intensive longitudinal studies with recent migrants to capture their interactions with the majority out-group (
= 10,297;
= 207). The situational need fulfillment mechanism is consistently a strong predictor of perceived interaction quality and positive out-group attitudes following intergroup interactions. The model is specific to out-group contact, robust to various need types, and works at least as well as Allport's contact conditions. As one of the first studies to test intergroup contact theory using intensive longitudinal data, we offer insight into the mechanisms of positive intergroup contact during real-life interactions and find situational motivations to be a key building block for understanding and addressing positive intergroup interactions.
: In this article, we provide evidence that the fulfillment of situational needs during real-life intergroup contacts meaningfully predicts perceived interaction quality and positive outgroup attitudes. Methodologically, this offers a testament to the emerging practice of capturing real-life interactions using intensive longitudinal data. Theoretically, our results give weight to motivational fulfillment as a flexible and effective mechanism for understanding positive intergroup contact.
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