Lesley reviews a number of new titles on Jews in the Renaissance, including "Crisis and Creativity in the Sephardic World," edited by Benjamin R. Gampel, and "Alchemy of the Word. Cabala of the ...Renaissance," by Philip Beitchman.
•Marine ecosystem forecasts can aid ocean resource and coastal community management.•A range of statistical and dynamical forecast methods can be leveraged.•Physical and biological mechanisms of ...predictability are detailed.•Understanding these mechanisms can improve forecasts and inspire confidence in them.•Priorities are model development, skill assessment, infrastructure, and communication.
Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii)informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and(iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.
Characterizing strains causing noninvasive and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) may inform the impact of new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs).
During 2011-2019, among children aged 6-36 ...months, pneumococcal serotype distribution and antibiotic non-susceptibility of nasopharyngeal and middle ear fluid (MEF) isolates collected at onset of acute otitis media (AOM) in Rochester, New York were compared with IPD isolates from Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) across 10 U.S. sites.
From Rochester, 400 (nasopharyngeal) and 156 (MEF) pneumococcal isolates were collected from 259 children. From ABCs, 907 sterile-site isolates were collected from 896 children. Non-PCV serotypes 35B and 21 were more frequent among the Rochester AOM cases, while serotypes 3, 19A, 22F, 33F, 10A, and 12F contained in PCVs were more frequent among ABCs IPD cases. The proportion of antibiotic non-susceptible pneumococcal isolates was generally more common among IPD cases. In 2015-2019, serotype 35B emerged as the most common serotype associated with multiclass antibiotic non-susceptibility for both the Rochester AOM and ABCs IPD cases.
Pneumococcal isolates from children in Rochester with AOM differ in serotype distribution and antibiotic susceptibility compared to IPD cases identified through U.S. surveillance. Non-PCV serotype 35B emerged as a common cause of AOM and IPD.
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