Machine learning (ML) approaches have been broadly applied to the prediction of length of stay and mortality in hospitalized patients. ML may also reduce societal health burdens, assist in health ...resources planning and improve health outcomes. However, the fairness of these ML models across ethnoracial or socioeconomic subgroups is rarely assessed or discussed. In this study, we aim (1) to quantify the algorithmic bias of ML models when predicting the probability of long-term hospitalization or in-hospital mortality for different heart failure (HF) subpopulations, and (2) to propose a novel method that can improve the fairness of our models without compromising predictive power.
We built 5 ML classifiers to predict the composite outcome of hospitalization length-of-stay and in-hospital mortality for 210 368 HF patients extracted from the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry data set. We integrated 15 social determinants of health variables, including the Social Deprivation Index and the Area Deprivation Index, into the feature space of ML models based on patients' geographies to mitigate the algorithmic bias.
The best-performing random forest model demonstrated modest predictive power but selectively underdiagnosed underserved subpopulations, for example, female, Black, and socioeconomically disadvantaged patients. The integration of social determinants of health variables can significantly improve fairness without compromising model performance.
We quantified algorithmic bias against underserved subpopulations in the prediction of the composite outcome for HF patients. We provide a potential direction to reduce disparities of ML-based predictive models by integrating social determinants of health variables. We urge fellow researchers to strongly consider ML fairness when developing predictive models for HF patients.
Machine learning is frequently being leveraged to tackle problems in the health sector including utilization for clinical decision-support. Its use has historically been focused on single modal data. ...Attempts to improve prediction and mimic the multimodal nature of clinical expert decision-making has been met in the biomedical field of machine learning by fusing disparate data. This review was conducted to summarize the current studies in this field and identify topics ripe for future research. We conducted this review in accordance with the PRISMA extension for Scoping Reviews to characterize multi-modal data fusion in health. Search strings were established and used in databases: PubMed, Google Scholar, and IEEEXplore from 2011 to 2021. A final set of 128 articles were included in the analysis. The most common health areas utilizing multi-modal methods were neurology and oncology. Early fusion was the most common data merging strategy. Notably, there was an improvement in predictive performance when using data fusion. Lacking from the papers were clear clinical deployment strategies, FDA-approval, and analysis of how using multimodal approaches from diverse sub-populations may improve biases and healthcare disparities. These findings provide a summary on multimodal data fusion as applied to health diagnosis/prognosis problems. Few papers compared the outputs of a multimodal approach with a unimodal prediction. However, those that did achieved an average increase of 6.4% in predictive accuracy. Multi-modal machine learning, while more robust in its estimations over unimodal methods, has drawbacks in its scalability and the time-consuming nature of information concatenation.
Sepsis is one of the most life-threatening circumstances for critically ill patients in the United States, while diagnosis of sepsis is challenging as a standardized criteria for sepsis ...identification is still under development. Disparities in social determinants of sepsis patients can interfere with the risk prediction performances using machine learning.
We analyzed a cohort of critical care patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database. Disparities in social determinants, including race, sex, marital status, insurance types and languages, among patients identified by six available sepsis criteria were revealed by forest plots with 95% confidence intervals. Sepsis patients were then identified by the Sepsis-3 criteria. Sixteen machine learning classifiers were trained to predict in-hospital mortality for sepsis patients on a training set constructed by random selection. The performance was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the trained model was tested on the entire randomly conducted test set and each sub-population built based on each of the following social determinants: race, sex, marital status, insurance type, and language. The fluctuations in performances were further examined by permutation tests.
We analyzed a total of 11,791 critical care patients from the MIMIC-III database. Within the population identified by each sepsis identification method, significant differences were observed among sub-populations regarding race, marital status, insurance type, and language. On the 5783 sepsis patients identified by the Sepsis-3 criteria statistically significant performance decreases for mortality prediction were observed when applying the trained machine learning model on Asian and Hispanic patients, as well as the Spanish-speaking patients. With pairwise comparison, we detected performance discrepancies in mortality prediction between Asian and White patients, Asians and patients of other races, as well as English-speaking and Spanish-speaking patients.
Disparities in proportions of patients identified by various sepsis criteria were detected among the different social determinant groups. The performances of mortality prediction for sepsis patients can be compromised when applying a universally trained model for each subpopulation. To achieve accurate diagnosis, a versatile diagnostic system for sepsis is needed to overcome the social determinant disparities of patients.
One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks ...and sparse Gaussian processes are the main two scalable uncertainty estimation methods. However, deep Bayesian neural networks suffer from lack of expressiveness, and more expressive models such as deep kernel learning, which is an extension of sparse Gaussian process, captures only the uncertainty from the higher-level latent space. Therefore, the deep learning model under it lacks interpretability and ignores uncertainty from the raw data. In this paper, we merge features of the deep Bayesian learning framework with deep kernel learning to leverage the strengths of both methods for a more comprehensive uncertainty estimation. Through a series of experiments on predicting the first incidence of heart failure, diabetes and depression applied to large-scale electronic medical records, we demonstrate that our method is better at capturing uncertainty than both Gaussian processes and deep Bayesian neural networks in terms of indicating data insufficiency and identifying misclassifications, with a comparable generalization performance. Furthermore, by assessing the accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve over the predictive probability, we show that our method is less susceptible to making overconfident predictions, especially for the minority class in imbalanced datasets. Finally, we demonstrate how uncertainty information derived by the model can inform risk factor analysis towards model interpretability.
Background Myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and diabetes share underlying risk factors and commonalities in clinical management. We examined if their combined impact on mortality is proportional, ...amplified or less than the expected risk separately of each disease and whether the excess risk is explained by their associated comorbidities. Methods Using large-scale electronic health records, we identified 2,007,731 eligible patients (51% women) and registered with general practices in the UK and extracted clinical information including diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, diabetes and 53 other long-term conditions before 2005 (study baseline). We used Cox regression to determine the risk of all-cause mortality with age as the underlying time variable and tested for excess risk due to interaction between cardiometabolic conditions. Results At baseline, the mean age was 51 years, and 7% (N = 145,910) have had a cardiometabolic condition. After a 7-year mean follow-up, 146,994 died. The sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval CI) of all-cause mortality by baseline disease status, compared to those without cardiometabolic disease, were MI = 1.51 (1.49-1.52), diabetes = 1.52 (1.51-1.53), stroke = 1.84 (1.82-1.86), MI and diabetes = 2.14 (2.11-2.17), MI and stroke = 2.35 (2.30-2.39), diabetes and stroke = 2.53 (2.50-2.57) and all three = 3.22 (3.15-3.30). Adjusting for other concurrent comorbidities attenuated these estimates, including the risk associated with having all three conditions (HR = 1.81 95% CI 1.74-1.89). Excess risks due to interaction between cardiometabolic conditions, particularly when all three conditions were present, were not significantly greater than expected from the individual disease effects. Conclusion Myocardial infarction, stroke and diabetes were associated with excess mortality, without evidence of any amplification of risk in people with all three diseases. The presence of other comorbidities substantially contributed to the excess mortality risks associated with cardiometabolic disease multimorbidity. Keywords: Myocardial infarction, Stroke, Diabetes, Multimorbidity, Mortality, Electronic health records
Diabetes is a heterogenous, multimorbid disorder with a large variation in manifestations, trajectories, and outcomes. The aim of this study is to validate a novel machine learning method for the ...phenotyping of diabetes in the context of comorbidities. Data from 9967 multimorbid patients with a new diagnosis of diabetes were extracted from Clinical Practice Research Datalink. First, using BEHRT (a transformer-based deep learning architecture), the embeddings corresponding to diabetes were learned. Next, topological data analysis (TDA) was carried out to test how different areas in high-dimensional manifold correspond to different risk profiles. The following endpoints were considered when profiling risk trajectories: major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke (CVA), heart failure (HF), renal failure (RF), diabetic neuropathy, peripheral arterial disease, reduced visual acuity and all-cause mortality. Kaplan Meier curves were plotted for each derived phenotype. Finally, we tested the performance of an established risk prediction model (QRISK) by adding TDA-derived features. We identified four subgroups of patients with diabetes and divergent comorbidity patterns differing in their risk of future cardiovascular, renal, and other microvascular outcomes. Phenotype 1 (young with chronic inflammatory conditions) and phenotype 2 (young with CAD) included relatively younger patients with diabetes compared to phenotypes 3 (older with hypertension and renal disease) and 4 (older with previous CVA), and those subgroups had a higher frequency of pre-existing cardio-renal diseases. Within ten years of follow-up, 2592 patients (26%) experienced MACE, 2515 patients (25%) died, and 2020 patients (20%) suffered RF. QRISK3 model's AUC was augmented from 67.26% (CI 67.25-67.28%) to 67.67% (CI 67.66-67.69%) by adding specific TDA-derived phenotype and the distances to both extremities of the TDA graph improving its performance in the prediction of CV outcomes. We confirmed the importance of accounting for multimorbidity when risk stratifying heterogenous cohort of patients with new diagnosis of diabetes. Our unsupervised machine learning method improved the prediction of clinical outcomes.
The electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network assessed the feasibility of deploying portable phenotype rule-based algorithms with natural language processing (NLP) components added to ...improve performance of existing algorithms using electronic health records (EHRs). Based on scientific merit and predicted difficulty, eMERGE selected six existing phenotypes to enhance with NLP. We assessed performance, portability, and ease of use. We summarized lessons learned by: (1) challenges; (2) best practices to address challenges based on existing evidence and/or eMERGE experience; and (3) opportunities for future research. Adding NLP resulted in improved, or the same, precision and/or recall for all but one algorithm. Portability, phenotyping workflow/process, and technology were major themes. With NLP, development and validation took longer. Besides portability of NLP technology and algorithm replicability, factors to ensure success include privacy protection, technical infrastructure setup, intellectual property agreement, and efficient communication. Workflow improvements can improve communication and reduce implementation time. NLP performance varied mainly due to clinical document heterogeneity; therefore, we suggest using semi-structured notes, comprehensive documentation, and customization options. NLP portability is possible with improved phenotype algorithm performance, but careful planning and architecture of the algorithms is essential to support local customizations.
Demand analysis of quadcopter based on QFD Nan, Xiang; Lin, Huo; Di, Gai ...
IOP conference series. Materials Science and Engineering,
01/2021, Letnik:
1043, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The quality and safety of quadcopters have always been the focus of attention in the drone industry. Carrying out safety and functional requirements analysis for it can better meet customer needs, ...reduce design costs, improve reliability and safety, and provide ideas for product design updates. This article uses the QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method to transform the safety and functional requirements of the quadcopter into product design, and provides guidance and reference opinions for improving product quality and safety. Based on the analytic hierarchy process, the article determines the technical difficulty through the analysis of technical characteristics, and analyzes the functional and safety requirements of the quality house model constructed after the improvement of the four-axis aircraft to provide a basis for the improvement of the quality characteristics of the four-axis aircraft.
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (ie, COVID-19) has given rise to a global pandemic affecting 215 countries and over 40 million people as of October 2020. Meanwhile, we are also experiencing an infodemic ...induced by the overabundance of information, some accurate and some inaccurate, spreading rapidly across social media platforms. Social media has arguably shifted the information acquisition and dissemination of a considerably large population of internet users toward higher interactivities.
This study aimed to investigate COVID-19-related health beliefs on one of the mainstream social media platforms, Twitter, as well as potential impacting factors associated with fluctuations in health beliefs on social media.
We used COVID-19-related posts from the mainstream social media platform Twitter to monitor health beliefs. A total of 92,687,660 tweets corresponding to 8,967,986 unique users from January 6 to June 21, 2020, were retrieved. To quantify health beliefs, we employed the health belief model (HBM) with four core constructs: perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, and perceived barriers. We utilized natural language processing and machine learning techniques to automate the process of judging the conformity of each tweet with each of the four HBM constructs. A total of 5000 tweets were manually annotated for training the machine learning architectures.
The machine learning classifiers yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves over 0.86 for the classification of all four HBM constructs. Our analyses revealed a basic reproduction number R
of 7.62 for trends in the number of Twitter users posting health belief-related content over the study period. The fluctuations in the number of health belief-related tweets could reflect dynamics in case and death statistics, systematic interventions, and public events. Specifically, we observed that scientific events, such as scientific publications, and nonscientific events, such as politicians' speeches, were comparable in their ability to influence health belief trends on social media through a Kruskal-Wallis test (P=.78 and P=.92 for perceived benefits and perceived barriers, respectively).
As an analogy of the classic epidemiology model where an infection is considered to be spreading in a population with an R
greater than 1, we found that the number of users tweeting about COVID-19 health beliefs was amplifying in an epidemic manner and could partially intensify the infodemic. It is "unhealthy" that both scientific and nonscientific events constitute no disparity in impacting the health belief trends on Twitter, since nonscientific events, such as politicians' speeches, might not be endorsed by substantial evidence and could sometimes be misleading.
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