Summary Background The benefit of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation is based on a balance between reduction in ischaemic stroke and increase in major bleeding. We aimed to develop and ...validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve the prognostication of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods We developed and internally validated a new biomarker-based risk score for major bleeding in 14 537 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to apixaban versus warfarin in the ARISTOTLE trial and externally validated it in 8468 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial. Plasma samples for determination of candidate biomarker concentrations were obtained at randomisation. Major bleeding events were centrally adjudicated. The predictive values of biomarkers and clinical variables were assessed with Cox regression models. The most important variables were included in the score with weights proportional to the model coefficients. The ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , numbers NCT00412984 and NCT00262600 , respectively. Findings The most important predictors for major bleeding were the concentrations of the biomarkers growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs) and haemoglobin, age, and previous bleeding. The ABC-bleeding score (age, biomarkers GDF-15, cTnT-hs, and haemoglobin, and clinical history previous bleeding) score yielded a higher c-index than the conventional HAS-BLED and the newer ORBIT scores for major bleeding in both the derivation cohort (0·68 95% CI 0·66–0·70 vs 0·61 0·59–0·63 vs 0·65 0·62–0·67, respectively; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0008). ABC-bleeding score also yielded a higher c-index score in the the external validation cohort (0·71 95% CI 0·68–0·73 vs 0·62 0·59–0·64 for HAS-BLED vs 0·68 0·65–0·70 for ORBIT; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0016). A modified ABC-bleeding score using alternative biomarkers (haematocrit, cTnI-hs, cystatin C, or creatinine clearance) also outperformed the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores. Interpretation The ABC-bleeding score, using age, history of bleeding, and three biomarkers (haemoglobin, cTn-hs, and GDF-15 or cystatin C/CKD-EPI) was internally and externally validated and calibrated in large cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulation therapy. The ABC-bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores and should be useful as decision support on anticoagulation treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation. Funding BMS, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche Diagnostics.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic ...peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF.
A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups.
A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF.
NCT00412984, NCT00799903.
Breastfeeding rates in Sweden are declining, and it is important to identify women at risk for early cessation of exclusive breastfeeding.
The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated ...with exclusive breastfeeding lasting less than two months postpartum.
A population-based longitudinal study was conducted at Uppsala University Hospital, Sweden. Six hundred and seventy-nine women were included in this sub-study. Questionnaires were sent at five days, six weeks and six months postpartum, including questions on breastfeeding initiation and duration as well as several other background variables. The main outcome measure was exclusive breastfeeding lasting less than two months postpartum. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used in order to calculate adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI).
Seventy-seven percent of the women reported exclusive breastfeeding at two months postpartum. The following variables in the multivariate regression analysis were independently associated with exclusive breastfeeding lasting less than two months postpartum: being a first time mother (AOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.32-3.49), reporting emotional distress during pregnancy (AOR 2.21, 95% CI 1.35-3.62) and giving birth by cesarean section (AOR 2.63, 95% CI 1.34-5.17).
Factors associated with shorter exclusive breastfeeding duration were determined. Identification of women experiencing emotional distress during pregnancy, as well as scrutiny of caregiving routines on cesarean section need to be addressed, in order to give individual targeted breastfeeding support and promote longer breastfeeding duration.
Computerized cognitive tests have the potential to cost-effectively detect and monitor cognitive impairments and thereby facilitate treatment for these conditions. However, relatively few of these ...tests have been validated in a variety of populations. Brain on Track, a self-administered web-based test, has previously been shown to have a good ability to differentiate between healthy individuals and patients with cognitive impairment in Portuguese populations. The objective of this study was to validate the differential ability and evaluate the usability of Brain on Track in a Swedish memory clinic setting. Brain on Track was administered to 30 patients with mild cognitive impairment/mild dementia and 30 healthy controls, all scheduled to perform the test from home after one week and after three months. To evaluate the usability, the patient group was interviewed after completion of the testing phase. Patients scored lower than healthy controls at both the first (median score 42.4 vs 54.1, p<0.001) and the second test (median score 42.3 vs 55.0, p<0.001). The test-retest intra-class correlation was 0.87. A multiple logistic regression model accounting for effects of age, gender and education rendered an ability of Brain on Track to differentiate between the groups with an area under the receiver operation characteristics curve of 0.90 for the first and 0.88 for the second test. In the subjective evaluation, nine patients left positive comments, nine were negative whereas five left mixed comments regarding the test experience. Sixty percent of patients had received help from relatives to log on to the platform. In conclusion, Brain on Track performed well in differentiating healthy controls from patients with cognitive impairment and showed a high test-retest reliability, on par with results from previous studies. However, the substantial proportion of patients needing help to log in could to some extent limit an independent use of the platform.
Abstract
Aims
The global COVID-19 pandemic is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus entering human cells using angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a cell surface receptor. ACE2 is shed to the ...circulation, and a higher plasma level of soluble ACE2 (sACE2) might reflect a higher cellular expression of ACE2. The present study explored the associations between sACE2 and clinical factors, cardiovascular biomarkers, and genetic variability.
Methods and results
Plasma and DNA samples were obtained from two international cohorts of elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (n = 3999 and n = 1088). The sACE2 protein level was measured by the Olink Proteomics® Multiplex CVD II96 × 96 panel. Levels of the biomarkers high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, D-dimer, and cystatin-C were determined by immunoassays. Genome-wide association studies were performed by Illumina chips. Higher levels of sACE2 were statistically significantly associated with male sex, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and older age. The sACE2 level was most strongly associated with the levels of GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and hs-cTnT. When adjusting for these biomarkers, only male sex remained associated with sACE2. We found no statistically significant genetic regulation of the sACE2 level.
Conclusions
Male sex and clinical or biomarker indicators of biological ageing, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes are associated with higher sACE2 levels. The levels of GDF-15 and NT-proBNP, which are associated both with the sACE2 level and a higher risk for mortality and cardiovascular disease, might contribute to better identification of risk for severe COVID-19 infection.
Recent reports have indicated that there may be an increased risk of late stent thrombosis with the use of drug-eluting stents, as compared with bare-metal stents.
We evaluated 6033 patients treated ...with drug-eluting stents and 13,738 patients treated with bare-metal stents in 2003 and 2004, using data from the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry. The outcome analysis covering a period of up to 3 years was based on 1424 deaths and 2463 myocardial infarctions and was adjusted for differences in baseline characteristics.
The two study groups did not differ significantly in the composite of death and myocardial infarction during 3 years of follow-up. At 6 months, there was a trend toward a lower unadjusted event rate in patients with drug-eluting stents than in those with bare-metal stents, with 13.4 fewer such events per 1000 patients. However, after 6 months, patients with drug-eluting stents had a significantly higher event rate, with 12.7 more events per 1000 patients per year (adjusted relative risk, 1.20; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.05 to 1.37). At 3 years, mortality was significantly higher in patients with drug-eluting stents (adjusted relative risk, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.35), and from 6 months to 3 years, the adjusted relative risk for death in this group was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.57).
Drug-eluting stents were associated with an increased rate of death, as compared with bare-metal stents. This trend appeared after 6 months, when the risk of death was 0.5 percentage point higher and a composite of death or myocardial infarction was 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point higher per year. The long-term safety of drug-eluting stents needs to be ascertained in large, randomized trials.
Atrial fibrillation is associated with increased but variable risk of stroke. Our aim was to validate the recently developed biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers high-sensitivity troponin and ...N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide, and clinical history of prior stroke/transient ischemic attack)-stroke risk score and compare its performance with the CHA
DS
VASc and ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation) risk scores.
The ABC-stroke score includes age, biomarkers (N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin), and clinical history (prior stroke). This validation was based on 8356 patients, 16 137 person-years of follow-up, and 219 adjudicated stroke or systemic embolic events in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation in the RE-LY study (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy). Levels of N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were determined in plasma samples obtained at study entry.
The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated with 0.76 stroke/systemic embolic events per 100 person-years in the predefined low (<1%/y) risk group, 1.48 in the medium (1%-2%/y) risk group, and 2.60 in the high (>2%/y) risk group for the ABC-stroke score with hs-cTnT. Hazard ratios for stroke/systemic embolic events were 1.95 for medium- versus low-risk groups, and 3.44 for high- versus low-risk groups. ABC-stroke score achieved C indices of 0.65 with both hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI, in comparison with 0.60 for CHA
DS
VASc (P=0.004 for hs-cTnT and P=0.022 hs-cTnI) and 0.61 for ATRIA scores (P=0.005 hs-cTnT and P=0.034 for hs-cTnI).
The biomarker-based ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and consistently performed better than both the CHA
DS
VASc and ATRIA stroke scores. The ABC score should be considered an improved decision support tool in the care of patients with atrial fibrillation.
URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: ARISTOTLE, NCT00412984; RE-LY, NCT00262600.
It is unknown whether patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction derive a similar benefit from an early invasive therapy at different levels of renal function.
A total of 23 262 consecutive ...non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients <or=80 years old were included in a nationwide coronary care unit register between 2003 and 2006. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study formula. Patients were divided into medically or invasively treated groups if revascularized within 14 days of admission. A propensity score for the likelihood of invasive therapy was calculated. A Cox regression model with adjustment for propensity score and discharge medication was used to assess the association between early revascularization and 1-year mortality across renal function stages. There was a gradient, with significantly fewer patients treated invasively with declining renal function: eGFR >or=90 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2), 62%; eGFR 60 to 89 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2), 55%; eGFR 30 to 59 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2), 36%; eGFR 15 to 29 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2), 14%; and eGFR <15 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2)/dialysis, 15% (P<0.001). After adjustment, the overall 1-year mortality was 36% lower (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.73, P<0.001) with an invasive strategy. The magnitude of survival difference was similar in normal-to-moderate renal function groups. The lower mortality observed with invasive therapy declined with lower renal function, with no difference in mortality in patients with kidney failure (eGFR <15 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2)) or in those receiving dialysis (hazard ratio 1.61, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 3.09, P=0.15).
Early invasive therapy is associated with greater 1-year survival in patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction and mild-to-moderate renal insufficiency, but the benefit declines with lower renal function, and is less certain in those with renal failure or on dialysis.
Only limited information is available on the speed of implementation of new evidence-based and guideline-recommended treatments and its association with survival in real life health care of patients ...with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).
To describe the adoption of new treatments and the related chances of short- and long-term survival in consecutive patients with STEMI in a single country over a 12-year period.
The Register of Information and Knowledge about Swedish Heart Intensive Care Admission (RIKS-HIA) records baseline characteristics, treatments, and outcome of consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome admitted to almost all hospitals in Sweden. This study includes 61,238 patients with a first-time diagnosis of STEMI between 1996 and 2007.
Estimated and crude proportions of patients treated with different medications and invasive procedures and mortality over time.
Of evidence-based treatments, reperfusion increased from 66% (95%, confidence interval CI, 52%-79%) to 79% (95% CI, 69%-89%; P < .001), primary percutaneous coronary intervention from 12% (95% CI, 11%-14%) to 61% (95% CI, 45%-77%; P < .001), and revascularization from 10% (96% CI, 6%-14%) to 84% (95% CI, 73%-95%; P < .001). The use of aspirin, clopidogrel, β-blockers, statins, and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors all increased: clopidogrel from 0% to 82% (95% CI, 69%-95%; P < .001), statins from 23% (95% CI, 12%-33%) to 83% (95% CI, 75%-91%; P < .001), and ACE inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blockers from 39% (95% CI, 26%-52%) to 69% (95% CI, 58%-70%; P < .001). The estimated in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality decreased from 12.5% (95% CI, 4.3%-20.6%) to 7.2% (95% CI, 1.7%-12.6%; P < .001); from 15.0% (95% CI, 6.2%-23.7%) to 8.6% (95% CI, 2.7%-14.5%; P < .001); and from 21.0% (95% CI, 11.0%-30.9%) to 13.3% (95% CI, 6.0%-20.4%; P < .001), respectively. After adjustment, there was still a consistent trend with lower standardized mortality over the years. The 12-year survival analyses showed that the decrease of mortality was sustained over time.
In a Swedish registry of patients with STEMI, between 1996 and 2007, there was an increase in the prevalence of evidence-based treatments. During this same time, there was a decrease in 30-day and 1-year mortality that was sustained during long-term follow-up.
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