Summary Background Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a ...simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries. Methods The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35–70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally. Findings Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142 861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139 691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), 3379 (2%) of 139 691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1·16, 95% CI 1·13–1·20; p<0·0001), cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·11–1·24; p<0·0001), non-cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·12–1·21; p<0·0001), myocardial infarction (1·07, 1·02–1·11; p=0·002), and stroke (1·09, 1·05–1·15; p<0·0001). Grip strength was a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than systolic blood pressure. We found no significant association between grip strength and incident diabetes, risk of hospital admission for pneumonia or COPD, injury from fall, or fracture. In high-income countries, the risk of cancer and grip strength were positively associated (0·916, 0·880–0·953; p<0·0001), but this association was not found in middle-income and low-income countries. Interpretation This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).
The aim of the Lancet Commission on hypertension is to identify key actions to improve the management of blood pressure both at the population and the individual level, and to generate a campaign to ...adopt the suggested actions at national levels to reduce the impact of elevated blood pressure globally. The first task of the Commission is this report, which briefly reviews the available evidence for prevention, identification, and treatment of elevated blood pressure, hypertension, and its cardiovascular complications.
Summary Background The contribution of various risk factors to the burden of stroke worldwide is unknown, particularly in countries of low and middle income. We aimed to establish the association of ...known and emerging risk factors with stroke and its primary subtypes, assess the contribution of these risk factors to the burden of stroke, and explore the differences between risk factors for stroke and myocardial infarction. Methods We undertook a standardised case-control study in 22 countries worldwide between March 1, 2007, and April 23, 2010. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptoms onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls had no history of stroke, and were matched with cases for age and sex. All participants completed a structured questionnaire and a physical examination, and most provided blood and urine samples. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) for the association of all stroke, ischaemic stroke, and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke with selected risk factors. Findings In the first 3000 cases (n=2337, 78%, with ischaemic stroke; n=663, 22%, with intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke) and 3000 controls, significant risk factors for all stroke were: history of hypertension (OR 2·64, 99% CI 2·26–3·08; PAR 34·6%, 99% CI 30·4–39·1); current smoking (2·09, 1·75–2·51; 18·9%, 15·3–23·1); waist-to-hip ratio (1·65, 1·36–1·99 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26·5%, 18·8–36·0); diet risk score (1·35, 1·11–1·64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18·8%, 11·2–29·7); regular physical activity (0·69, 0·53–0·90; 28·5%, 14·5–48·5); diabetes mellitus (1·36, 1·10–1·68; 5·0%, 2·6–9·5); alcohol intake (1·51, 1·18–1·92 for more than 30 drinks per month or binge drinking; 3·8%, 0·9–14·4); psychosocial stress (1·30, 1·06–1·60; 4·6%, 2·1–9·6) and depression (1·35, 1·10–1·66; 5·2%, 2·7–9·8); cardiac causes (2·38, 1·77–3·20; 6·7%, 4·8–9·1); and ratio of apolipoproteins B to A1 (1·89, 1·49–2·40 for highest vs lowest tertile; 24·9%, 15·7–37·1). Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 88·1% (99% CI 82·3–92·2) of the PAR for all stroke. When an alternate definition of hypertension was used (history of hypertension or blood pressure >160/90 mm Hg), the combined PAR was 90·3% (85·3–93·7) for all stroke. These risk factors were all significant for ischaemic stroke, whereas hypertension, smoking, waist-to-hip ratio, diet, and alcohol intake were significant risk factors for intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke. Interpretation Our findings suggest that ten risk factors are associated with 90% of the risk of stroke. Targeted interventions that reduce blood pressure and smoking, and promote physical activity and a healthy diet, could substantially reduce the burden of stroke. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Pfizer Cardiovascular Award, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim.
Summary Background Alcohol consumption is proposed to be the third most important modifiable risk factor for death and disability. However, alcohol consumption has been associated with both benefits ...and harms, and previous studies were mostly done in high-income countries. We investigated associations between alcohol consumption and outcomes in a prospective cohort of countries at different economic levels in five continents. Methods We included information from 12 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to study associations with mortality (n=2723), cardiovascular disease (n=2742), myocardial infarction (n=979), stroke (n=817), alcohol-related cancer (n=764), injury (n=824), admission to hospital (n=8786), and for a composite of these outcomes (n=11 963). Findings We included 114 970 adults, of whom 12 904 (11%) were from high-income countries (HICs), 24 408 (21%) were from upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), 48 845 (43%) were from lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), and 28 813 (25%) were from low-income countries (LICs). Median follow-up was 4·3 years (IQR 3·0–6·0). Current drinking was reported by 36 030 (31%) individuals, and was associated with reduced myocardial infarction (hazard ratio HR 0·76 95% CI 0·63–0·93), but increased alcohol-related cancers (HR 1·51 1·22–1·89) and injury (HR 1·29 1·04–1·61). High intake was associated with increased mortality (HR 1·31 1·04–1·66). Compared with never drinkers, we identified significantly reduced hazards for the composite outcome for current drinkers in HICs and UMICs (HR 0·84 0·77–0·92), but not in LMICs and LICs, for which we identified no reductions in this outcome (HR 1·07 0·95–1·21; pinteraction <0·0001). Interpretation Current alcohol consumption had differing associations by clinical outcome, and differing associations by income region. However, we identified sufficient commonalities to support global health strategies and national initiatives to reduce harmful alcohol use. Funding Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.
Periodontal disease may be an important modifiable risk factor for stroke.
To determine the contribution of markers of periodontal disease to stroke risk globally, within subpopulations, and by ...stroke subtypes.
INTERSTROKE is the largest international case-control study of risk factors for first acute stroke. All participants were asked a standardised set of questions about the presence or absence of painful teeth, painful gums or lost teeth, as markers of periodontal disease, within the previous year. The total number of reported variables was calculated per participant. Multivariable conditional logistic regression examined the association of these variables with acute stroke.
In 26901 participants, across 32 countries, there was a significant multivariable association between lost teeth and stroke (OR 1.11, 95 % CI 1.01 – 1.22), but not painful teeth (OR 1.00, 95 % CI 0.91-1.10) or painful gums (OR 1.01, 95 % CI 0.89 – 1.14). When these symptoms were considered together there was a graded increased odds of stroke, with the largest magnitude of association seen if a patient reported all three of painful teeth, painful gums and lost teeth (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.00 – 1.79).
Our findings suggest that features of severe periodontal disease are a risk factor for acute stroke. Periodontal disease should be considered as a potentially modifiable risk factor for stroke.
Despite the rising burden of chronic respiratory diseases, global data for lung function are not available. We investigated global variation in lung function in healthy populations by region to ...establish whether regional factors contribute to lung function.
In an international, community-based prospective study, we enrolled individuals from communities in 17 countries between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2009 (except for in Karnataka, India, where enrolment began on Jan 1, 2003). Trained local staff obtained data from participants with interview-based questionnaires, measured weight and height, and recorded forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC). We analysed data from participants 130-190 cm tall and aged 34-80 years who had a 5 pack-year smoking history or less, who were not affected by specified disorders and were not pregnant, and for whom we had at least two FEV₁ and FVC measurements that did not vary by more than 200 mL. We divided the countries into seven socioeconomic and geographical regions: south Asia (India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan), east Asia (China), southeast Asia (Malaysia), sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa and Zimbabwe), South America (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile), the Middle East (Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey), and North America or Europe (Canada, Sweden, and Poland). Data were analysed with non-linear regression to model height, age, sex, and region.
153,996 individuals were enrolled from 628 communities. Data from 38,517 asymptomatic, healthy non-smokers (25,614 women; 12,903 men) were analysed. For all regions, lung function increased with height non-linearly, decreased with age, and was proportionately higher in men than women. The quantitative effect of height, age, and sex on lung function differed by region. Compared with North America or Europe, FEV1 adjusted for height, age, and sex was 31·3% (95% CI 30·8-31·8%) lower in south Asia, 24·2% (23·5-24·9%) lower in southeast Asia, 12·8% (12·4-13·4%) lower in east Asia, 20·9% (19·9-22·0%) lower in sub-Saharan Africa, 5·7% (5·1-6·4%) lower in South America, and 11·2% (10·6-11·8%) lower in the Middle East. We recorded similar but larger differences in FVC. The differences were not accounted for by variation in weight, urban versus rural location, and education level between regions.
Lung function differs substantially between regions of the world. These large differences are not explained by factors investigated in this study; the contribution of socioeconomic, genetic, and environmental factors and their interactions with lung function and lung health need further clarification.
Full funding sources listed at end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
