Publication bias in the social sciences Franco, Annie; Malhotra, Neil; Simonovits, Gabor
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
09/2014, Letnik:
345, Številka:
6203
Journal Article
Recenzirano
We studied publication bias in the social sciences by analyzing a known population of conducted studies—221 in total—in which there is a full accounting of what is published and unpublished. We ...leveraged Time-sharing Experiments in the Social Sciences (TESS), a National Science Foundation–sponsored program in which researchers propose survey-based experiments to be run on representative samples of American adults. Because TESS proposals undergo rigorous peer review, the studies in the sample all exceed a substantial quality threshold. Strong results are 40 percentage points more likely to be published than are null results and 60 percentage points more likely to be written up. We provide direct evidence of publication bias and identify the stage of research production at which publication bias occurs: Authors do not write up and submit null findings.
While previously polarization was primarily seen only in issue-based terms, a new type of division has emerged in the mass public in recent years: Ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust ...those from the other party. Democrats and Republicans both say that the other party's members are hypocritical, selfish, and closed-minded, and they are unwilling to socialize across party lines. This phenomenon of animosity between the parties is known as affective polarization. We trace its origins to the power of partisanship as a social identity, and explain the factors that intensify partisan animus. We also explore the consequences of affective polarization, highlighting how partisan affect influences attitudes and behaviors well outside the political sphere. Finally, we discuss strategies that might mitigate partisan discord and conclude with suggestions for future work.
Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent ...presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, but not for investing in disaster preparedness spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness, thereby causing substantial public welfare losses. We estimate that $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates. By estimating both the determinants of policy decisions and the consequences of those policies, we provide more complete evidence about citizen competence and government accountability.
What explains variation in individuals’ opposition to immigration? While scholars have consistently shown cultural concerns to be strong predictors of opposition, findings regarding the labor-market ...competition hypothesis are highly contested. To help understand these divergent results, we distinguish between the prevalence and conditional impact of determinants of immigration attitudes. Leveraging a targeted sampling strategy of high-technology counties, we conduct a study of Americans’ attitudes toward H-1B visas. The plurality of these visas are occupied by Indian immigrants, who are skilled but ethnically distinct, enabling us to measure a specific skill set (high technology) that is threatened by a particular type of immigrant (H-1B visa holders). Unlike recent aggregate studies, our targeted approach reveals that the conditional impact of the relationship in the high-technology sector between economic threat and immigration attitudes is sizable. However, labor-market competition is not a prevalent source of threat and therefore is generally not detected in aggregate analyses.
Few topics in public opinion research have attracted as much attention in recent years as partisan polarization in the American mass public. Yet, there has been considerably less investigation into ...whether people perceive the electorate to be polarized and the patterns of these perceptions. Building on work in social psychology, we argue that Americans perceive more polarization with respect to policy issues than actually exists, a phenomenon known as false polarization. Data from a nationally representative probability sample and a novel estimation strategy to make inferences about false polarization show that people significantly misperceive the public to be more divided along partisan lines than it is in reality. Also, people's misperceptions of opposing partisans are larger than those about their own party. We discuss the implications of these empirical patterns for American electoral politics.
The objective of this study is to investigate the prevalence and disparity of chronic opioid usage in surgical patients and the potential risk factors associated with chronic opioid usage.
Chronic ...opioid usage is common in surgical patients; however, the characteristics of opioid usage in surgical patients is unclear. In this study, we hypothesize that the prevalence of chronic opioid usage in surgical patients is high, and that significant disparities may exist among different surgical populations.
Data of opioid usage in outpatients among different surgical services were extracted from the electronic medical record database. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics of sex, age, race, body mass index (BMI), specialty visited, duration of opioid use, and opioid type were collected. Chronic opioid users were defined as patients who had been recorded as taking opioids for at least 90 days determined by the first and last visit dates under opioid usage during the investigation.
There were 79,123 patients included in this study. The average prevalence is 9.2%, ranging from 4.4% to 23.8% among various specialties. The prevalence in orthopedics (23.8%), neurosurgery (18.7%), and gastrointestinal surgery (14.4%) ranked in the top three subspecialties. Major factors influencing chronic opioid use include age, Ethnicitiy, Subspecialtiy, and multiple specialty visits. Approximately 75% of chronic users took opioids that belong to the category II Drug Enforcement Administration classification.
Overall prevalence of chronic opioid usage in surgical patients is high with widespread disparity among different sex, age, ethnicity, BMI, and subspecialty groups. Information obtained from this study provides clues to reduce chronic opioid usage in surgical patients.
Review of the literature with analysis of pooled data.
To assess common intraoperative neuromonitoring (IOM) changes that occur during the course of spinal surgery, potential causes of change, and ...determine appropriate responses. Further, there will be discussion of appropriate application of IOM, and medical legal aspects. The structured literature review will answer the following questions: What are the various IOM methods currently available for spinal surgery? What are the sensitivities and specificities of each modality for neural element injury? How are the changes in each modality best interpreted? What is the appropriate response to indicated changes? Recommendations will be made as to the interpretation and appropriate response to IOM changes.
Total number of abstracts identified and reviewed was 187. Full review was performed on 18 articles.
The MEDLINE database was queried using the search terms IOM, spinal surgery, SSEP, wake-up test, MEP, spontaneous and triggered electromyography alone and in various combinations. Abstracts were identified and reviewed. Individual case reports were excluded. Detailed information and data from appropriate articles were assessed and compiled.
Ability to achieve IOM baseline data varied from 70% to 98% for somatosensory-evoked potentials (SSEP) and 66% to 100% for motor-evoked potentials (MEP) in absence of neural axis abnormality. Multimodality intraoperative neuromonitoring (MIOM) provided false negatives in 0% to 0.79% of cases, whereas isolated SSEP monitoring alone provided false negative in 0.063% to 2.7% of cases. MIOM provided false positive warning in 0.6% to 1.38% of cases.
As spine surgery, and patient comorbidity, becomes increasingly complex, IOM permits more aggressive deformity correction and tumor resection. Combination of SSEP and MEP monitoring provides assessment of entire spinal cord functionality in real time. Spontaneous and triggered electromyography add assessment of nerve roots. The wake-up test can continue to serve as a supplement when needed. MIOM may prove useful in preservation of neurologic function where an alteration of approach is possible. IOM is a valuable tool for optimization of outcome in complex spinal surgery.
Race plays a salient role in access to surgical care. However, few investigations have assessed the impact of race within surgical populations after care has been delivered. The objective of this ...study was to employ an exact matching protocol to a homogenous population of spine surgery patients in order to isolate the relationships between race and short-term postoperative outcomes.
In total, 4263 consecutive patients who underwent single-level, posterior-only lumbar fusion at a single multihospital academic medical center were retrospectively enrolled. Of these patients, 3406 patients self-identified as White and 857 patients self-identified as non-White. Outcomes were initially compared across all patients via logistic regression. Subsequently, White patients and non-White patients were exactly matched on the basis of key demographic and health characteristics (1520 matched patients). Outcome disparities were evaluated between the exact-matched cohorts. Primary outcomes were readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, reoperations, mortality, intraoperative complications, and discharge disposition.
Before matching, non-White patients were less likely to be discharged home and more likely to be readmitted, evaluated in the ED, and undergo reoperation. After matching, non-White patients experienced higher rates of nonhome discharge, readmissions, and ED visits. Non-White patients did not have more surgical complications either before or after matching.
Between otherwise similar cohorts of spinal fusion cases, non-White patients experienced unfavorable discharge disposition and higher risk of multiple adverse postoperative outcomes. However, these findings were not accounted for by differences in surgical complications, suggesting that structural factors underlie the observed disparities.
Does information irrelevant to government performance affect voting behavior? If so, how does this help us understand the mechanisms underlying voters' retrospective assessments of candidates' ...performance in office? To precisely test for the effects of irrelevant information, we explore the electoral impact of local college football games just before an election, irrelevant events that government has nothing to do with and for which no government response would be expected. We find that a win in the 10 d before Election Day causes the incumbent to receive an additional 1.61 percentage points of the vote in Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential elections, with the effect being larger for teams with stronger fan support. In addition to conducting placebo tests based on postelection games, we demonstrate these effects by using the betting market's estimate of a team's probability of winning the game before it occurs to isolate the surprise component of game outcomes. We corroborate these aggregate-level results with a survey that we conducted during the 2009 NCAA men's college basketball tournament, where we find that surprising wins and losses affect presidential approval. An experiment embedded within the survey also indicates that personal well-being may influence voting decisions on a subconscious level. We find that making people more aware of the reasons for their current state of mind reduces the effect that irrelevant events have on their opinions. These findings underscore the subtle power of irrelevant events in shaping important real-world decisions and suggest ways in which decision making can be improved.
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