Abstract Background The improvement in discrimination gained by adding nontraditional cardiovascular risk markers cited in the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ...cholesterol guidelines to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimator (pooled cohort equation PCE) is untested. Objectives This study assessed the predictive accuracy and improvement in reclassification gained by the addition of the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, the ankle–brachial index (ABI), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels, and family history (FH) of ASCVD to the PCE in participants of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Methods The PCE was calibrated (cPCE) and used for this analysis. The Cox proportional hazards survival model, Harrell’s C statistics, and net reclassification improvement analyses were used. ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease–related death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Results Of 6,814 MESA participants not prescribed statins at baseline, 5,185 had complete data and were included in this analysis. Their mean age was 61 years; 53.1% were women, 9.8% had diabetes, and 13.6% were current smokers. After 10 years of follow-up, 320 (6.2%) ASCVD events occurred. CAC score, ABI, and FH were independent predictors of ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox models. CAC score modestly improved the Harrell’s C statistic (0.74 vs. 0.76; p = 0.04); ABI, hsCRP levels, and FH produced no improvement in Harrell’s C statistic when added to the cPCE. Conclusions CAC score, ABI, and FH were independent predictors of ASCVD events. CAC score modestly improved the discriminative ability of the cPCE compared with other nontraditional risk markers.
Accurate risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is essential to effectively balance the risks and benefits of therapy for primary prevention.
To compare the calibration and ...discrimination of the new American Heart Association (AHA) and American College of Cardiology (ACC) ASCVD risk score with alternative risk scores and to explore preventive therapy as a cause of the reported risk overestimation using the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.
Prospective epidemiologic study of ASCVD.
MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based, sex-balanced, multiethnic cohort.
4227 MESA participants aged 50 to 74 years and without diabetes at baseline.
Observed and expected events for the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score were compared with 4 commonly used risk scores-and their respective end points-in MESA after a 10.2-year follow-up.
The new AHA-ACC-ASCVD and 3 older Framingham-based risk scores overestimated cardiovascular events by 37% to 154% in men and 8% to 67% in women. Overestimation was noted throughout the continuum of risk. In contrast, the Reynolds Risk Score overestimated risk by 9% in men but underestimated risk by 21% in women. Aspirin, lipid-lowering or antihypertensive therapy, and interim revascularization did not explain the overestimation.
Comparability of MESA with target populations for primary prevention and possibility of missed events in MESA.
Of the 5 risk scores, 4, including the new AHA-ACC-ASCVD score, showed overestimation of risk (25% to 115%) in a modern, multiethnic cohort without baseline clinical ASCVD. If validated, overestimation of ASCVD risk may have substantial implications for individual patients and the health care system.
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
To evaluate the 2013 American Heart Association (AHA)-American College of Cardiology (ACC)-Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among four different race/ethnic groups and to ...ascertain which factors are most associated with risk overestimation by the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.
The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective community-based cohort, was used to examine calibration and discrimination of the AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score in 6441 White, Black, Chinese, and Hispanic Americans (aged 45-79 years and free of known ASCVD at baseline). Using univariable and multivariable absolute risk regression, we modelled the impact of individual risk factors on the discordance between observed and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk. Overestimation was observed in all race/ethnic groups in MESA and was highest among Chinese (252% for women and 314% for men) and lowest in White women (72%) and Hispanic men (67%). Higher age, Chinese race/ethnicity (when compared with White), systolic blood pressure (treated and untreated), diabetes, alcohol use, exercise, lipid-lowering medication, and aspirin use were all associated with more risk overestimation, whereas family history was associated with less risk overestimation in a multivariable model (all P < 0.05).
The AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score overestimates ASCVD risk among men, women, and all four race/ethnic groups evaluated in a modern American primary prevention cohort. Clinicians treating patients similar to those in MESA, particularly older individuals and those with factors associated with more risk overestimation, may consider interpreting absolute ASCVD risk estimates with caution.
Coronary artery calcium (CAC), measured by computed tomography (CT), has strong predictive value for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The standard CAC score is the Agatston, which is ...weighted upward for greater calcium density. However, some data suggest increased plaque calcium density may be protective for CVD.
To determine the independent associations of CAC volume and CAC density with incident CVD events.
Multicenter, prospective observational MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), conducted at 6 US field centers of 3398 men and women from 4 race/ethnicity groups; non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese. Participants were aged 45-84 years, free of known CVD at baseline, had CAC greater than 0 on their baseline CT, and were followed up through October 2010.
Incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and all CVD events
During a median of 7.6 years of follow-up, there were 175 CHD events and an additional 90 other CVD events for a total of 265 CVD events. With both lnCAC volume and CAC density scores in the same multivariable model, the lnCAC volume score showed an independent association with incident CHD, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.47-2.23) per standard deviation (SD = 1.6) increase, absolute risk increase 6.1 per 1000 person-years, and for CVD an HR of 1.68 (95% CI, 1.42-1.98) per SD increase, absolute risk increase 7.9 per 1000 person-years. Conversely, the CAC density score showed an independent inverse association, with an HR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.91) per SD (SD = 0.7) increase for CHD, absolute risk decrease 5.5 per 1000 person-years, and an HR of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) per SD increase for CVD, absolute risk decrease 8.2 per 1000 person years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed significantly improved risk prediction with the addition of the density score to a model containing the volume score for both CHD and CVD. In the intermediate CVD risk group, the area under the curve for CVD increased from 0.53 (95% CI, 0.48-0.59) to 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.64), P = .02.
CAC volume was positively and independently associated with CHD and CVD risk. At any level of CAC volume, CAC density was inversely and significantly associated with CHD and CVD risk. The role of CAC density should be considered when evaluating current CAC scoring systems.
Pericardial Fat and the Risk of Heart Failure Kenchaiah, Satish; Ding, Jingzhong; Carr, J. Jeffrey ...
Journal of the American College of Cardiology,
06/2021, Letnik:
77, Številka:
21
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Obesity is a well-established risk factor for heart failure (HF). However, implications of pericardial fat on incident HF is unclear.
This study sought to examine the association between pericardial ...fat volume (PFV) and newly diagnosed HF.
This study ascertained PFV using cardiac computed tomography in 6,785 participants (3,584 women and 3,201 men) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate PFV as continuous and dichotomous variable, maximizing the J-statistic: (Sensitivity + Specificity – 1).
In 90,686 person-years (median: 15.7 years; interquartile range: 11.7 to 16.5 years), 385 participants (5.7%; 164 women and 221 men) developed newly diagnosed HF. PFV was lower in women than in men (69 ± 33 cm3 vs. 92 ± 47 cm3; p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, every 1-SD (42 cm3) increase in PFV was associated with a higher risk of HF in women (hazard ratio HR: 1.44; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.21 to 1.71; p < 0.001) than in men (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.27; p = 0.03) (interaction p = 0.01). High PFV (≥70 cm3 in women; ≥120 cm3 in men) conferred a 2-fold greater risk of HF in women (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.87; p < 0.001) and a 53% higher risk in men (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.07; p = 0.006). In sex-stratified analyses, greater risk of HF remained robust with additional adjustment for anthropometric indicators of obesity (p ≤ 0.008), abdominal subcutaneous or visceral fat (p ≤ 0.03) or biomarkers of inflammation and hemodynamic stress (p < 0.001) and was similar among Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Chinese (interaction p = 0.24). Elevated PFV predominantly augmented the risk of HF with preserved ejection fraction (p < 0.001) rather than reduced ejection fraction (p = 0.31).
In this large, community-based, ethnically diverse, prospective cohort study, pericardial fat was associated with an increased risk of HF, particularly HF with preserved ejection fraction, in women and men.
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Native kidney biopsies are commonly performed in the diagnosis of acute kidney diseases and CKD. Because of the invasive nature of the procedure, bleeding-related complications are not uncommon. The ...National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases-sponsored Kidney Precision Medicine Project requires that all participants undergo a kidney biopsy; therefore, the objective of this analysis was to study complication rates of native kidney biopsies performed using automated devices under kidney imaging.
This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature published from January 1983 to March 2018. The initial PubMed search yielded 1139 manuscripts. Using predetermined selection criteria, 87 manuscripts were included in the final analysis. A random effects meta-analysis for proportions was used to obtain combined estimates of complication rates. Freeman-Tukey double-arcsine transformations were used to stabilize variance as complications were rare.
A total of 118,064 biopsies were included in this study. Patient age ranged from 30 to 79 years, and 45% of patients were women. On the basis of our meta-analysis, pain at the site of biopsy is estimated to occur in 4.3% of biopsied patients, hematomas are estimated to occur in 11%, macroscopic hematuria is estimated to occur in 3.5%, bleeding requiring blood transfusions is estimated to occur in 1.6%, and interventions to stop bleeding are estimated to occur in only 0.3%. Death attributed to native kidney biopsy was a rare event, occurring only in an estimated 0.06% of all biopsies but only 0.03% of outpatient biopsies. Complication rates were higher in hospitalized patients and in those with acute kidney disease. The reported complications varied on the basis of study type and geographic location.
Although the native kidney biopsy is an invasive diagnostic procedure, the rates of bleeding complications are low. Albeit rare, death can occur postbiopsy. Complications are more frequently seen after kidney biopsies of hospitalized patients with AKI.
Predictors of healthy aging have not been well-studied using longitudinal data with demographic, clinical, subclinical, and genetic information. The objective was to identify predictors of poor ...health outcome at 10 years of follow-up in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
Prospective cohort study.
Population-based sample from 6 U.S. communities.
4,355 participants In the MESA Study.
Poor health outcome at 10 years of follow-up was defined as having died or having clinical cardiovascular disease, depression, cognitive impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or cancer other than non-melanoma skin cancer. Absolute risk regression was used to estimate risk differences in the outcome adjusting for demographic variables, clinical and behavioral risk factors, subclinical cardiovascular disease, and ApoE genotype. Models were weighted to account for selective attrition.
Mean age at 10 years of follow-up was 69.5 years; 1,480 participants had a poor health outcome, 2,157 participants were in good health, and 718 were unknown. Older age, smoking, not taking a statin, hypertension, diabetes, and higher coronary calcium score were associated with higher probability of poor health outcome. After multivariable adjustment, participants in the lowest income and educational categories had 7 to 14% greater absolute risk of poor health outcome at 10 years of follow-up compared to those in the next highest categories of income or education (P = 0.002 for both). Those in the lowest categories of both income and education had 21% greater absolute risk of poor health outcome compared to those in the highest categories of both income and education.
Low income and educational level predict poor health outcome at 10 years of follow-up in an aging cohort, independent of clinical and behavioral risk factors and subclinical cardiovascular disease.
The 2013 pooled cohort equations (PCEs) are central in prevention guidelines for cardiovascular disease (CVD) but can misestimate CVD risk.
To improve the clinical accuracy of CVD risk prediction by ...revising the 2013 PCEs using newer data and statistical methods.
Derivation and validation of risk equations.
Population-based.
26 689 adults aged 40 to 79 years without prior CVD from 6 U.S. cohorts.
Nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, or fatal or nonfatal stroke.
The 2013 PCEs overestimated 10-year risk for atherosclerotic CVD by an average of 20% across risk groups. Misestimation of risk was particularly prominent among black adults, of whom 3.9 million (33% of eligible black persons) had extreme risk estimates (<70% or >250% those of white adults with otherwise-identical risk factor values). Updating these equations improved accuracy among all race and sex subgroups. Approximately 11.8 million U.S. adults previously labeled high-risk (10-year risk ≥7.5%) by the 2013 PCEs would be relabeled lower-risk by the updated equations.
Updating the 2013 PCEs with data from modern cohorts reduced the number of persons considered to be at high risk. Clinicians and patients should consider the potential benefits and harms of reducing the number of persons recommended aspirin, blood pressure, or statin therapy. Our findings also indicate that risk equations will generally become outdated over time and require routine updating.
Revised PCEs can improve the accuracy of CVD risk estimates.
National Institutes of Health.
Abstract
Aims
While coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than ...atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.
Methods and results
We utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45–84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.
Conclusions
Coronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.
The coronary artery calcium score (CACS) has been shown to predict future coronary heart disease (CHD) events. However, the extent to which adding CACS to traditional CHD risk factors improves ...classification of risk is unclear.
To determine whether adding CACS to a prediction model based on traditional risk factors improves classification of risk.
CACS was measured by computed tomography in 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population-based cohort without known cardiovascular disease. Recruitment spanned July 2000 to September 2002; follow-up extended through May 2008. Participants with diabetes were excluded from the primary analysis. Five-year risk estimates for incident CHD were categorized as 0% to less than 3%, 3% to less than 10%, and 10% or more using Cox proportional hazards models. Model 1 used age, sex, tobacco use, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and race/ethnicity. Model 2 used these risk factors plus CACS. We calculated the net reclassification improvement and compared the distribution of risk using model 2 vs model 1.
Incident CHD events.
During a median of 5.8 years of follow-up among a final cohort of 5878, 209 CHD events occurred, of which 122 were myocardial infarction, death from CHD, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Model 2 resulted in significant improvements in risk prediction compared with model 1 (net reclassification improvement = 0.25; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.34; P < .001). In model 1, 69% of the cohort was classified in the highest or lowest risk categories compared with 77% in model 2. An additional 23% of those who experienced events were reclassified as high risk, and an additional 13% without events were reclassified as low risk using model 2.
In this multi-ethnic cohort, addition of CACS to a prediction model based on traditional risk factors significantly improved the classification of risk and placed more individuals in the most extreme risk categories.
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