We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost ...region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km² for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km² for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total ...forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year -1 ) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year -1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year -1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year -1 . Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year -1 , with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.
Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high‐latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing‐season CH4 emissions ...from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near‐surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost‐free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high‐latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.
This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil ...moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.
Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended ...positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.
Over 20% of Earth's terrestrial surface is underlain by permafrost with vast stores of carbon that, once thawed, may represent the largest future transfer of carbon from the biosphere to the ...atmosphere. This process is largely dependent on microbial responses, but we know little about microbial activity in intact, let alone in thawing, permafrost. Molecular approaches have recently revealed the identities and functional gene composition of microorganisms in some permafrost soils and a rapid shift in functional gene composition during short-term thaw experiments. However, the fate of permafrost carbon depends on climatic, hydrological and microbial responses to thaw at decadal scales. Here we use the combination of several molecular 'omics' approaches to determine the phylogenetic composition of the microbial communities, including several draft genomes of novel species, their functional potential and activity in soils representing different states of thaw: intact permafrost, seasonally thawed active layer and thermokarst bog. The multi-omics strategy reveals a good correlation of process rates to omics data for dominant processes, such as methanogenesis in the bog, as well as novel survival strategies for potentially active microbes in permafrost.
1. Most current climate-carbon cycle models that include the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are based on a model developed 40 years ago by Woodwell '' Whittaker (1968) and omit advances in ...biogeochemical understanding since that time. Their model treats net C emissions from ecosystems as the balance between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR, i.e. primarily decomposition). 2. Under conditions near steady state, geographic patterns of decomposition closely match those of NPP, and net C emissions are adequately described as a simple balance of NPP and HR (the Woodwell-Whittaker model). This close coupling between NPP and HR occurs largely because of tight coupling between C and N (nitrogen) cycles and because NPP constrains the food available to heterotrophs. 3. Processes in addition to NPP and HR become important to understanding net C emissions from ecosystems under conditions of rapid changes in climate, hydrology, atmospheric CO₂, land cover, species composition and/or N deposition. Inclusion of these processes in climate-C cycle models would improve their capacity to simulate recent and future climatic change. 4. Processes that appear critical to soil C dynamics but warrant further research before incorporation into ecosystem models include below-ground C flux and its partitioning among roots, mycorrhizas and exudates; microbial community effects on C sequestration; and the effects of temperature and labile C on decomposition. The controls over and consequences of these processes are still unclear at the ecosystem scale. 5. Carbon fluxes in addition to NPP and HR exert strong influences over the climate system under conditions of rapid change. These fluxes include methane release, wildfire, and lateral transfers of food and fibre among ecosystems. 6. Water and energy exchanges are important complements to C cycle feedbacks to the climate system, particularly under non-steady-state conditions. An integrated understanding of multiple ecosystem-climate feedbacks provides a strong foundation for policies to mitigate climate change. 7. Synthesis. Current climate systems models that include only NPP and HR are inadequate under conditions of rapid change. Many of the recent advances in biogeochemical understanding are sufficiently mature to substantially improve representation of ecosystem C dynamics in these models.
Anabolic metabolism mediated by aberrant growth factor signalling fuels tumour growth and progression. The first biochemical descriptions of the altered metabolic nature of solid tumours were ...reported by Otto Warburg almost a century ago. Now, the study of tumour metabolism is being redefined by the development of new molecular tools, tumour modelling systems and precise instrumentation together with important advances in genetics, cell biology and spectroscopy. In contrast to Warburg's original hypothesis, accumulating evidence demonstrates a critical role for mitochondrial metabolism and substantial variation in the way in which different tumours metabolize nutrients to generate biomass. Furthermore, computational and experimental approaches suggest a dominant influence of the tissue-of-origin in shaping the metabolic reprogramming that enables tumour growth. For example, the unique metabolic properties of prostate adenocarcinoma are likely to stem from the distinct metabolism of the prostatic epithelium from which it emerges. Normal prostatic epithelium employs comparatively glycolytic metabolism to sustain physiological citrate secretion, whereas prostate adenocarcinoma consumes citrate to power oxidative phosphorylation and fuel lipogenesis, enabling tumour progression through metabolic reprogramming. Current data suggest that the distinct metabolic aberrations in prostate adenocarcinoma are driven by the androgen receptor, providing opportunities for functional metabolic imaging and novel therapeutic interventions that will be complementary to existing diagnostic and treatment options.
The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause ...rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO₂ and CH₄ . Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO₂ of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH₄ to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH₄/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon-climate modeling efforts.
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