During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus - the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country - with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed ...cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North-Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117-278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%-76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8-6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector-borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high.
The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to ...disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission.
Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the “natural” hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these ...reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, HW trends were investigated during the warmest period of the year (May–September) by using a slightly improved version of the EuroHEAT HW definition applied on long meteorological time-series (36-year period, 1980–2015) collected by weather stations located in the capitals of the 28 European Union member countries. Comparisons between two 18-year sub-periods (1980–1997 vs. 1998–2015) were carried out and a city-specific HW hazard index (HWHI), accounting for the main HW characteristics, was proposed. Most of the capitals revealed significant positive trends of the majority of HW hazard characteristics and substantial HWHI increases were observed during the sub-period 1998–2015, especially in the central-eastern and southeastern cities. Conversely, minor HWHI increases were observed in most of the northern capitals and opposite situations were even observed in several northern and especially southwestern cities. The results of this study represent a support for planning urban HW-related mitigation and adaptation strategies with the priority given to the southeastern cities.
To evaluate CV profiles, periprocedural complications, and in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) according to climate.
Data from 2478 AMI patients (1779 men; mean age 67 ∓ 13 ...years; Pasquinucci Hospital ICU, Massa, Italy; 2007-2018) were retrospectively analyzed according to climate (LAMMA Consortium; Firenze, Italy) by using three approaches as follows: (1) annual warm (May-October) and cold (November-April) periods; (2) warm and cold extremes of the two periods; and (3) warm and cold extremes for each month of the two periods.
All approaches highlighted a higher percentage of AMI hospitalization for patients with adverse CV profiles in relation to low temperatures, or higher periprocedural complications and in-hospital deaths. In warmer times of the cold periods, there were fewer admissions of dyslipidemic patients. During warm periods, progressive heat anomalies were characterized by more smoker (approaches 2 and 3) and young AMI patient (approach 3) admissions, whereas cooler times (approach 3) evidenced a reduced hospitalization of diabetic and dyslipidemic patients. No significant effects were observed for the heat index and light circulation.
Although largely overlapping, different approaches identify patient subgroups with different CV risk factors at higher AMI admission risk and adverse short-term outcomes. These data retain potential implications regarding pathophysiological mechanisms of AMI and its prevention.
Abstract Background Screening for asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVD) in subjects at risk for heart failure (HF) can affect clinical management. The aim of the present study is to ...examine the role of NT-pro BNP in the diagnosis of ALVD in subjects with hypertension and diabetes from primary care. Methods and Results A total of 1012 subjects with hypertension and/or diabetes and no symptoms or signs of HF were assessed by B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) assay and echocardiography. Diastolic dysfunction was present in 368/1012 subjects (36.4%): 327 (32.4%) with mild diastolic dysfunction and 41 (4%) with a moderate-to-severe diastolic dysfunction. Systolic dysfunction was present in 11/1012 (1.1%). NT-proBNP levels were 170 ± 206 and 859 ± 661 pg/mL, respectively, in diastolic and systolic dysfunction and 92 ± 169 in normal subjects ( P < .0001). Pooling moderate-to-severe diastolic with systolic dysfunction, a total of 52 subjects (5.1 %) were obtained: best cutoff value of NT-proBNP was 125 pg/mL (males <67 years: sensitivity Sens 87.5%, specificity Spec 92.7%, negative predictive value NPV 99.5%, positive predictive value PPV 33.3%; females <67 years: Sens 100%, Spec 84.1%, NPV 100%, PPV 33.3%; males ≥67 years: Sens 100%, Spec 77.1%, NPV 100%, PPV 32.5%; females ≥67 years: Sens 100%, Spec 59.9%, NPV 100%, PPV 23%). Conclusions The prevalence of ALVD in subjects at risk for HF is 5.1%. Because of its excellent NPV, NT-proBNP can be used by general practitioners to rule out ALVD in hypertensive or diabetic patients.
To evaluate the effects of metformin on glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and leptin levels.
A total of 10 obese nondiabetic male patients were studied before and after a 14-day treatment with 2,550 ...mg/day metformin and were compared with 10 untreated obese control subjects. On days 0 and 15, leptin and GLP-1(7-36)amide/(7-37) levels were assessed before and after an oral glucose load during a euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp to avoid the interference of variations of insulinemia and glycemia on GLP-1 and leptin secretion. The effects of metformin on GLP-1(7-36)amide degradation in human plasma and in a buffer solution containing dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) were also studied.
Leptin levels were not affected by the oral glucose load, and they were not modified after metformin treatment. Metformin induced a significant (P < 0.05) increase of GLP-1(7-36)amide/(7-37) at 30 and 60 min after the oral glucose load (63.8 +/- 29.0 vs. 50.3 +/- 15.6 pmol/l and 75.8 +/- 35.4 vs. 46.9 +/- 20.0 pmol/l, respectively), without affecting baseline GLP-1 levels. No variations of GLP-1 levels were observed in the control group. In pooled human plasma, metformin (0.1-0.5 microg/ml) significantly inhibited degradation of GLP-1(7-36)amide after a 30-min incubation at 37 degrees C; similar results were obtained in a buffer solution containing DPP-IV.
Metformin significantly increases GLP-1 levels after an oral glucose load in obese nondiabetic subjects; this effect could be due to an inhibition of GLP-1 degradation.
Extreme precipitation (EP) events are life‐threatening phenomena that are expected to continue to increase because of ongoing climate change. In the past decade, these events have been caused by ...important and well‐documented variations in large‐scale atmospheric circulation. Identifying the trends, dynamics, and related causes of EP could help in recognizing geographical areas that are at great risk and reducing their adverse impacts, particularly on a relatively small area such as the Italian peninsula. The relationships between large‐scale circulation types (CTs) and EP were investigated using a long time‐series (1979–2015) of meteorological data recorded by 46 weather stations in Italy. EP was defined as the number of days with accumulated precipitation above the 90th percentile (R90p). The seasonal trends of R90p were not homogeneous and showed significant increases primarily in winter and spring. Only a few CTs were significantly related to R90p, and this relationship was strongly dependent on latitude, orographic exposure, and season. Heterogeneous seasonal trends for daily CT occurrences were also observed. ‘Cyclonic’ CTs grouped together showed significant increasing trends in all seasons, whereas ‘Anticyclonic’ ones showed a generalized decreasing trend, explaining, only partially, the increase of R90p observed in some stations. Meanwhile, the R90p trends seem to be more influenced by the variations in the internal characteristics of CTs (i.e., the variation of some meteorological parameters that characterize them) observed over the past few decades than by changes in CT frequencies but still with high heterogeneity in Italy. The results of this and other similar studies can provide useful support for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of severe weather, particularly in complex areas such as the Mediterranean basin.
Identifying the trends, dynamics, and related causes of extreme precipitation could help in recognizing geographical areas that are at great risk over the Italian peninsula. Therefore, the relationships between large‐scale circulation types based on COST733 software (PCT09) and Extreme precipitation (R90p) were investigated. Although some atmospheric circulations may induce an increase of extreme precipitation events, the reflection of climate change had a higher impact on the variation of internal characteristics of some circulations. MSLP, mean sea‐level pressure centroid maps for the nine classes of PCT09 classification.
Many studies have reported that the impact of high temperatures affects physiology, welfare, health, and productivity of farm animals, and among these, the dairy cattle farming is one of the ...livestock sectors that suffers the greatest effects. The temperature–humidity index (THI) represents the state of the art in the evaluation of heat stress conditions in dairy cattle but often its measurement is not carried out in sheds. For this reason, the aim of this study was the monitoring of the THI in three dairy cattle farms in Mugello (Tuscany) to understand its influence on dairy cows. THI values were calculated using meteorological data from direct observation in sheds and outdoor environments. Data relating to the animal’s behavior were collected using radio collars. The Pearson test and Mann–Kendall test were used for statistical analysis. The results highlighted a significant (
P
< 0.001) upward trend in THImax during the last 30 years both in Low Mugello (+ 1.1 every 10 years) and in High Mugello (+ 0.9 every 10 years). In Low Mugello sheds, during the period 2020–2022, more than 70% of daytime hours during the summer period were characterized by heat risk conditions (THI > 72) for livestock. On average the animals showed a significant (
P
< 0.001) decrease in time spent to feeding and rumination, both during the day and the night, with a significant (
P
< 0.001) increase in inactivity. This study fits into the growing demand for knowledge of the micro-climatic conditions within farms in order to support resilience actions for protecting both animal welfare and farm productivity from the effects of climate change. This could also be carried out thanks to estimation models which, based on the meteorological conditions forecast, could implement the thermal stress indicator (THI) directly from the high-resolution meteorological model, allowing to get a prediction of the farm’s potential productivity loss based on the expected THI.
The 500HGT maps for each of the nine centroids computed with SAN method through the use of COST733class‐1.2 software.
ABSTRACT
During the last few decades, weather circulation type classifications ...(CTCs) have been widely used to gain insight into processes at the synoptic scale, but also for studying the relationship between atmospheric circulation and surface climate variability. This study aims to evaluate the best performing CTCs based on COST733 software for the stratification of daily ground‐level precipitation and surface air temperature across Italy by means of four statistical metrics. Six classification methods belonging to the four COST733 groups (threshold‐based, PCA‐based, leader algorithms and optimization algorithms) were investigated on 32 and 26 data time series derived from Italian weather stations for daily mean temperature and daily mean precipitation, respectively. CTCs were computed using gridded mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa derived from the NCEP Reanalysis 2 dataset between 1979 and 2015 and tested on three different numbers of classes (8/9, 11/12 and 18 circulation types). Evaluation metrics showed an evident seasonal variability and high‐spatial heterogeneity reflecting the geographical complexity of the Italian territory. The study points out that the best classification, both for temperature and precipitation, is strongly dependent on the classification variable (mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa) showing relevant differences between surface temperature and precipitation. A low number of circulation types (8/9) resulted as the most appropriate grouping for the Italian domain and the Principal Component Transversal and Simulated Annealing were the best performing classification procedures for ground‐level precipitation and temperature stratification, respectively.
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