Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain‐specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by ...climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041–2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in‐situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex‐situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high‐resolution occurrence dataset (2901–12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%–59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region as in‐situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%–66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high‐elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species.
By combining distribution models (based on a large, high‐resolution dataset, and balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism, and predictive/extrapolation ability) with climate forecasts, this study identified climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, considering both in‐situ refugia (suitable now and in the future) and ex‐situ refugia (suitable only in the future). Most species will undergo a marked contraction towards higher elevations. In‐situ refugia for at least three species cover ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region (44% included within protected areas) and represent priority sites for the conservation of high‐elevation species and habitats.
Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to ...climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.
Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. This study analysed the distributions of four species, which are affected by reciprocal interactions and will be impacted by climate change. The latter will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future, causing the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks. Relevant biotic interactions should be included in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.
Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the ...potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041-2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061-2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041-2060, but during the 2061-2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.
Urbanization decreases the species richness and results in the homogenization of bird communities. Bird species are important indicator species for biodiversity and reflect the habitat quality of ...urban forests and other green spaces. In this study we investigated the key drivers that influence bird communities in urban forests and green spaces in the Southeastern European city of Ljubljana, Slovenia. We were interested in how the number of species, species dissimilarity and indicator species are affected by the type of green space (urban forest vs park), area of green space and type of urbanization (urban vs peri-urban areas). We sampled birds twice in 2012 in 39 standardized point counts across Ljubljana. We found that the abundance was influenced by the area of the green space. Species dissimilarity and species turnover are affected by the area and type of green space. Interestingly, the analysis showed that the species composition of peri-urban areas was similar to that of urban areas. Indicator species were found for all environmental variables. On the basis of the results, we suggest the strategy that would increase the diversity of birds and increase the stability of their populations in urban areas. Urban planners should encourage 1) both forests and parks since they harbour different species of birds, 2) larger green spaces since larger areas have species that are more typical of larger areas and 3) a mosaic of a larger number of smaller forest remnants combined with larger forest complex serving as source areas.
Abstract The paper summarizes current knowledge on the population size, habitat, conservation status and conservation measures for the White-backed Woodpecker Dendrocopos leucotos in Slovenia. The ...species is an extremely rare forest specialist species. It inhabits mostly Dinaric beech Fagus sylvatica forests from Trnovski gozd, Nanos, Javorniki Mts and Mt Snežnik to the Kočevsko region and Gorjanci Mts. The species is also present in the Zasavje region and Mt Boč. The majority of the population (80%) inhabits the altitudinal belt between 700 and 1400 m a.s.l. The size of the Slovenian breeding population is currently estimated at 100-150 breeding pairs. Using the new survey playback method, we expect to find the species at additional sites. The highest densities were recorded on Mt Snežnik (0.7 breeding pairs/km 2 in the Zatrep - Planinc forest reserve, 0.6 breeding pairs/km 2 at Gomance) and in the Gorjanci Mts (0.6-0.9 breeding pairs/km 2 in the Kobile forest reserve). The species inhabits beech and mixed forests with an important percentage of dead trees. The volume of dead trees was measured only at few sites inhabited by the species and ranged from 42 to 283 m 3 /ha. Signs of foraging were detected mainly on beech snags and stumps; all nests were found in upright beech snags. In Slovenia, the species is threatened by the low percentage of dead deciduous trees in forests, the construction of new forest roads, the increased annual timber harvest and a weak network of forest reserves. The proposed conservation measures include increasing the amount of dead deciduous trees in managed forests, increasing the area of forest reserves and halting the construction of new forest roads.
Abstract In the 11 years between 1999 and 2010, certain groups of birds inhabiting Kozjansko Regional Park underwent a moderate or large decline. Composite indices for indicator species of different ...habitat types showed an increase of generalist species (composite index 108.3), a moderate decline of forest species (composite index 76.6) and species of extensively managed orchards (composite index 76.4), and a large decline of farmland (composite index 62.8) and grassland species (composite index 8.7). Our study was based on a census using line transects with an inner and outer belt. Randomly distributed line transects with a total length of 60.8 km were surveyed using the same method both in 1999 and 2010. The decline of farmland species mirrors the population trend of this group at the national level. The study area is protected by multiple nature conservation mechanisms. It is protected as a regional park and partly as a Natura 2000 site. These mechanisms, however, do not seem to be functioning here. We believe the large decline of grassland species is a consequence of agricultural policy, which favours a decrease of extensively managed grasslands.
Integrative forest management attempts to simultaneously fulfill both wood production and biodiversity conservation in a given forest region, and presumably supplants the need for unmanaged forest ...reserves. This is the dominant management paradigm in the temperate zone of Europe, yet few studies have examined the validity of this approach. We used Slovenia as a test bed to examine how the long-term practice of integrative forest management has influenced two structural components of mature forest conditions, namely coarse woody debris (CWD) and large living trees, as well as the distribution of the White-backed Woodpecker, a species dependent on such conditions. Data were compiled from national inventory plots, coupled with separate surveys in 51 forest reserves. The mean volume of CWD and density of large beech trees across managed forests in Slovenia was 15m3ha−1 and 6ha−1, respectively; these mean values were significantly higher (165m3ha−1 and 55ha−1) in old-growth reserves. CWD was primarily comprised of small diameter pieces in managed forest, whereas large diameter pieces in multiple stages of decay represented most of the volume in reserves. These results, coupled with the limited distribution of the woodpecker across the country, suggest that integrative management practiced over a large scale may be insufficient for maintaining biodiversity dependent on mature forest conditions at current levels of wood extraction.
Different activities, artifacts, and roles can be found in the literature on the agile engineering of secure software (AESS). The purpose of this paper is to consolidate them and thus identify key ...activities, artifacts, and roles that can be employed in AESS. To gain initial sets of activities, artifacts, and roles, the literature was first extensively reviewed. Activities, artifacts, and roles were then cross-evaluated with similarity matrices. Finally, similarity matrices were converted into distance matrices, enabling the use of Ward’s hierarchical clustering method for consolidating activities, artifacts, and roles into clusters. Clusters of activities, artifacts, and roles were then named as key activities, artifacts, and roles. We identified seven key activities (i.e., security auditing, security analysis and testing, security training, security prioritization and monitoring, risk management, security planning and threat modeling; and security requirements engineering), five key artifacts (i.e., security requirement artifacts, security repositories, security reports, security tags, and security policies), and four key roles (i.e., security guru, security developer, penetration tester, and security team) in AESS. The identified key activities, artifacts, and roles can be used by software development teams to improve their software engineering processes in terms of software security.
Although agile methods gained popularity and became globally widespread, developing secure software with agile methods remains a challenge. Method elements (i.e., roles, activities, and artifacts) ...that aim to increase software security on one hand can reduce the characteristic agility of agile methods on the other. The overall aim of this paper is to provide small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with the means to improve the sustainability of their software development process in terms of software security despite their limitations, such as low capacity and/or financial resources. Although software engineering literature offers various security elements, there is one key research gap that hinders the ability to provide such means. It remains unclear not only how much individual security elements contribute to software security but also how they impact the agility and costs of software development. To address the gap, we identified security elements found in the literature and evaluated them for their impact on software security, agility, and costs in an international study among practitioners. Finally, we developed a novel lightweight approach for evaluating agile methods from a security perspective. The developed approach can help SMEs to adapt their software development to their needs.
Cystoscopy with urinary cytology is the gold standard for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with tumors of the urinary bladder. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the ...nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22) tumor marker test, BladderChek® point-of-care test and voided urinary cytology for the detection and follow-up of bladder tumors.
NMP22 was measured using an ELISA assay in stabilized voided urine and using the BladderChek® test. Voided urinary cytology was performed on urine samples. Results were compared to cystoscopic findings and histopathological examination results after transurethral resection of the bladder lesion.
For the prediction of malignant histopathological result, sensitivity and specificity were 45.2% and 75.0%, respectively, for NMP22 at a cut-off of 7.5 kU/L, 17.7% and 100% for the BladderChek® test and 37.0% and 100% for voided urine cytology. For the prediction of suspicious or positive cystoscopic finding, sensitivity and specificity were 40.4% and 72.1%, respectively, for NMP22 at a cut-off of 7.5 kU/L, 14.8% and 93.8% for the BladderChek® test and 26.8% and 98.1% for voided urine cytology.
The NMP22 quantitative test showed higher sensitivity and lower specificity compared with voided urine cytology, whereas the sensitivity of the BladderChek® test was low. We could not recommend any of the three non-invasive tests as a replacement for cystoscopy for the diagnosis or follow-up of urinary bladder tumors.
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