The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with presymptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the reopening of societies and ...the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust population screening, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are too low to detect, followed by exponential viral growth, leading to peak viral load and infectiousness and ending with declining titers and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model the effectiveness of repeated population screening considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and speed of reporting and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that screening should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system of unknown etiology. We tested the hypothesis that MS is caused by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) in a ...cohort comprising more than 10 million young adults on active duty in the US military, 955 of whom were diagnosed with MS during their period of service. Risk of MS increased 32-fold after infection with EBV but was not increased after infection with other viruses, including the similarly transmitted cytomegalovirus. Serum levels of neurofilament light chain, a biomarker of neuroaxonal degeneration, increased only after EBV seroconversion. These findings cannot be explained by any known risk factor for MS and suggest EBV as the leading cause of MS.
Summary The measles virus is among the most transmissible viruses known to infect humans. Prior to measles vaccination programs, measles infected over 95% of all children and was responsible for over ...4 million deaths each year. Measles vaccination programs have been among the greatest public health achievements reducing, eliminating endemic measles in the whole of the Americas and across much of the globe. Where measles vaccines are introduced, unexpectedly large reductions in all-cause childhood mortality have been observed. These gains appear to derive in part from direct heterologous benefits of measles vaccines that enhance innate and adaptive immune responses. Additionally, by preventing measles infections, vaccination prevents measles-associated short- and long-term immunomodulating effects. Before vaccination, these invisible hallmarks of measles infections increased vulnerability to non-measles infections in nearly all children for weeks, months, or years following acute infections. By depleting measles incidence, vaccination has had important indirect benefits to reduce non-measles mortality. Delineating the relative importance of these two modes of survival benefits following measles vaccine introduction is of critical public health importance. While both support continued unwavering global commitments to measles vaccination programs until measles eradication is complete, direct heterologous benefits of measles vaccination further support continued commitment to measles vaccination programs indefinitely. We discuss what is known about direct and indirect nonspecific measles vaccine benefits, and their implications for continued measles vaccination programs.
Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ...(SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery of the second dose will affect infection dynamics and how it will affect prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a buildup of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose as compared with natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but that longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose and to ramp up vaccination efforts globally.
Estimating an epidemic's trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but case data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We ...show that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance-in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction testing-changes during an epidemic. Thus, Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic's trajectory. Combining data from multiple such samples improves the precision and robustness of this estimation. We apply our methods to Ct values from surveillance conducted during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in a variety of settings and offer alternative approaches for real-time estimates of epidemic trajectories for outbreak management and response.
Immunosuppression after measles is known to predispose people to opportunistic infections for a period of several weeks to months. Using population-level data, we show that measles has a more ...prolonged effect on host resistance, extending over 2 to 3 years. We find that nonmeasles infectious disease mortality in high-income countries is tightly coupled to measles incidence at this lag, in both the pre- and post-vaccine eras. We conclude that long-term immunologic sequelae of measles drive interannual fluctuations in nonmeasles deaths. This is consistent with recent experimental work that attributes the immunosuppressive effects of measles to depletion of B and T lymphocytes. Our data provide an explanation for the long-term benefits of measles vaccination in preventing all-cause infectious disease. By preventing measles-associated immune memory loss, vaccination protects polymicrobial herd immunity.
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