The storm-track response to sea surface temperature (SST) fronts in the northwestern Pacific region is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model with a 50-km horizontal resolution. ...The following two experiments are conducted: one with 0.258 daily SST data (CNTL) and the other with smoothed SSTs over an area covering SST fronts associated with the Kuroshio, the Kuroshio Extension, the Oyashio, and the subpolar front (SMTHK). The storm track estimated from the local deepening rate of surface pressure (LDR) exhibits a prominent peak in this region in CNTL in January, whereas the storm-track peak weakens and moves eastward in SMTHK. Storm-track differences between CNTL and SMTHK are only found in explosive deepening events with LDR larger than 1 hPa h−1. A diagnostic equation of LDR suggests that latent heat release associated with large-scale condensation contributes to the storm-track enhancement. The SST fronts also affect the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The jet stream in the upper troposphere tends to meander northward, which is associated with positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in CNTL, whereas the jet stream flows zonally in SMTHK. A composite analysis for the northwestern Pacific SLP anomaly suggests that frequent explosive cyclone development in the northwestern Pacific in CNTL causes downstream positive SLP anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska. Cyclones in SMTHK developing over the northeastern Pacific enhance the moisture flux along the west coast of North America, increasing precipitation in that region.
Regional-scale precipitation responses over Indonesia to major climate modes in the tropical Indo–Pacific Oceans, namely canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and how ...the responses are related to large-scale moisture convergences are investigated. The precipitation responses, analyzed using a high-spatial-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) terrestrial precipitation dataset for the period 1960–2007, exhibit differences between the dry (July–September) and wet (November–April) seasons. Canonical El Niño strongly reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia from the dry season to the early wet season and northern Indonesia in the wet season. El Niño Modoki also reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia during the dry season, but conversely increases precipitation in western Indonesia in the wet season. Moisture flux analysis indicates that corresponding to the dry (wet) season precipitation reduction due to the canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki anomalous divergence occurs around the southern (northern) edge of the convergence zone when one of the two edges is located near the equator (10°S–15°N) associated with their seasonal migration. This largely explains the seasonality and regionality of precipitation responses to canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki. IOD reduces precipitation in southwestern Indonesia in the dry season, associated with anomalous moisture flux divergence. The seasonality of precipitation response to IOD is likely to be controlled by the seasonality of local sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern pole of the IOD.
Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to estimate the possibility of climate events than ...individual models. Hence, we assessed SST predictability in the North Pacific (NP) from multi-model seasonal forecasts. We used 23 years of hindcast data from three seasonal forecasting systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service to estimate the prediction skill based on temporal correlation. We evaluated the predictability of the SST from the ensemble members' width spread, and co-variability between the ensemble mean and observation. Our analysis revealed that areas with low prediction skills were related to either the large spread of ensemble members or the ensemble members not capturing the observation within their spread. The large spread of ensemble members reflected the high forecast uncertainty, as exemplified in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region in July. The ensemble members not capturing the observation indicates the model bias; thus, there is room for improvements in model prediction. On the other hand, the high prediction skills of the multi-model were related to the small spread of ensemble members that captures the observation, as in the central NP in January. Such high predictability is linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited Newman, Matthew; Alexander, Michael A.; Ault, Toby R. ...
Journal of climate,
06/2016, Letnik:
29, Številka:
12
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within ...themeteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.
Diurnal cycles of precipitation and lightning are investigated by analyzing rain rates of the TRMM3G68 dataset, consisting of Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager data only; rain rates of Global ...Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), for which infrared (IR) data are also used; lightning flash rates observed by TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS); and lightning stroke rates of World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over the tropics. Diurnal amplitudes relative to averages are generally larger for lightning than for precipitation. Over ocean, relative amplitudes are stronger in the stratocumulus deck region in the southeast Pacific than those over typical ocean regions. The phase of GSMaP is substantially delayed to TRMM3G68 due to the phase-delay problem of IR-based estimation. The diurnal peaks tend to occur between 1400 and 1800 LST over the continent after spatial averaging with a phase leading order of TRMM3G68, LIS, and WWLLN, and between 0000 and 0700 LST over oceanic regions where diurnal cycles are prominent in all datasets. Off-equatorward phase propagations are found in the precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Over selected coastal regions, all data exhibit consistent oceanward phase propagation with the longest, medium, and shortest phase propagation distances for TRMM3G68 precipitation, WWLLN lightning, and LIS lightning, respectively, with a phase leading order of LIS, WWLLN, and TRMM3G68. The summertime diurnal cycle over the Gulf Stream also exhibits oceanward phase propagation, but with strong amplitude enhancement over the Gulf Stream. Diurnal cycle amplitude is also enhanced over the Kuroshio in the East China Sea in the baiu–mei-yu rainy season.
The future change in equatorial upwelling between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 is investigated using data from 24 coupled climate models. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean exhibits substantial equatorial ...upwelling decrease in the eastern Pacific and weaker decrease in the western Atlantic Ocean. TheMMEmean of upwelling change and intermodel variation of that are decomposed into distinct isopycnal and diapycnal components. In the Pacific, the diapycnal upwelling decreases near the surface, associated with a weakened Ekman pumping. The isopycnal upwelling decreases at depths of 75–200m around the core of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) due to flattening of the density layer in which it flows. Both the weakened Ekman pumping and the EUC flattening are induced by the locally weakened trade wind over the eastern Pacific basin. In the equatorial Atlantic, both the change in MME mean and the intermodel variation of upwellings are significantly related to the weakened trade wind and enhanced stratification, although these drivers are not independent. The results for the Pacific Ocean imply that future reduction in upwelling may have impacts at different depths by different mechanisms. In particular, the rapid warming of sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific basin may be mainly caused by the near-surface diapycnal upwelling reduction rather than isopycnal upwelling reduction associated EUC flattening, which is important at deeper levels.
The link between sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and atmospheric fronts is explored in a general circulation model across the Gulf Stream (GS) region from December to February 1981–2000. Two ...model experiments are analyzed, one with a realistic control SST distribution and one with a spatially smoothed SST distribution. The analysis shows a noticeable change in regional atmospheric frontal frequency between the two experiments (up to 30%), with the distribution of change exhibiting a clear imprint of the GS SST front. Further analysis of the surface sensible heat flux gradient across cold fronts reveals the pattern of change to be mediated by a thermal interaction between the oceanic and atmospheric fronts (“thermal damping and strengthening”). These results not only emphasize the significance of the GS SST gradient for storm development in the North Atlantic but also highlight the importance of resolution in assessing the role of frontal air‐sea interaction in midlatitude climate variability.
Key Points
Significant response in atmospheric frontal frequency to differently resolved Gulf Stream fronts
Atmospheric response consistent with a thermal air‐sea interaction mechanism
Strong implications for role of frontal air‐sea interaction in midlatitude climate variability
Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model ...Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.
Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015 Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C. ...
Geophysical research letters,
16 May 2017, Letnik:
44, Številka:
9
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multidecadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied, and the resultant ...oxygen anomaly field is used to quantify upper ocean O2 trends at global and hemispheric scales. A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. Ocean reanalysis data are used to evaluate relationships with changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and oxygen solubility (O2,sat). Global O2 decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC. The global upper ocean O2 inventory (0–1000 m) changed at the rate of −243 ± 124 T mol O2 per decade. Further, the O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the OHC (r = −0.86; 0–1000 m) and the regression coefficient of O2 to OHC is approximately −8.2 ± 0.66 nmol O2 J−1, on the same order of magnitude as the simulated O2‐heat relationship typically found in ocean climate models. Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization component with relatively small contributions from O2,sat. This indicates that changing ocean circulation, mixing, and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O2 changes. The spatial patterns of the multidecadal trend include regions of enhanced ocean deoxygenation including the subpolar North Pacific, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and tropical oxygen minimum zones. Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O2 trends and their regional expressions.
Plain Language Summary
This new paper describes the analysis of the dissolved oxygen in the global ocean using the most recent version of the World Ocean Database for the period of 1955 to 2015. After careful examination of the data, we found that a statistically significant, widespread O2 decline is emerging beyond the envelope of natural fluctuations. Our study also reveals a tight relationship between O2 inventories and the ocean heat content. The spatial pattern and magnitude of this relationship are consistent with expectations derived from mechanistic ocean climate models forced under climate warming scenarios. Taken together, the trends we document here are suggestive of the effects of the ocean warming beginning to supersede natural variability and emerge as a recognizable signal. This merits additional scrutiny over the coming years.
Key Points
A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability
The global ocean O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the global ocean heat content
Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization
A large meridional shift of the sea surface temperature front occurs off the south coast of Japan associated with transitions between the large-meander and straight paths of the Kuroshio. Most ...extratropical cyclones generated in winter near the Kuroshio in the East China Sea pass through the region where the Kuroshio takes either the meander or the straight path. To examine whether such cyclones change their tracks and intensities according to the two states of the path, a new dataset of winter cyclone tracks derived from surface weather charts from the period 1969/70–2008/09 was produced. The composite analysis of cyclone tracks with respect to the meander and straight path states reveals the following: the cyclone track axis for the meander path state is located away from the south coast of Japan with a dispersive tendency, while that for the straight path state is attached to the south coast with a long extending feature. A difference in track between these two states also occurs to the east of Japan over the North Pacific. In addition, this behavior of the cyclone track is shown to be independent of the wintertime atmospheric circulation anomalies around Japan. The development rate of cyclones is 41% faster for the straight path state than the meander path state. Snowfall in Tokyo caused by south-coast cyclones is more frequent for the meander than the straight path state because the former state can act to decrease air temperature in Tokyo.
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