U radu se analiziraju promjene u ukupnom kretanju broja stanovnika u naseljima Grada Knina u posljednja dva međupopisna razdoblja (1991. – 2001., 2001. – 2011.) te promjene u narodnosnoj strukturi ...stanovništva. Budući da je rat prouzročio prisilne migracije koje su odredile demografske procese na tom području, posebna pažnja pridaje se proučavanju migracijskih obilježja stanovništva. Rezultati analize pokazuju da su se najveće promjene u demografskoj slici toga područja dogodile u međupopisnom razdoblju 1991. – 2001. Obje komponente (prirodno i mehaničko kretanje) koje su bile negativne dovele su do znatnog pada broja stanovnika te do izrazitog smanjivanja autohtonog stanovništva. Posljedica toga je promjena narodnosne strukture. Predratno srpsko stanovništvo smanjeno je za više od tri četvrtine, a doseljavanje stanovništva iz ostalih dijelova Hrvatske te iz Bosne i Hercegovine dovelo je do prevage Hrvata. Unatoč pozitivnom migracijskom saldu u posljednjem međupopisnom razdoblju, u većini naselja, koje obuhvaća ovo istraživanje, nepovoljni demografski procesi, okarakterizirani negativnom prirodnom promjenom te demografskim starenjem stanovništva, upućuju na nastavak depopulacije koja će u nekim naseljima dovesti do demografskog izumiranja.
Over the last fifty years, the proportion of extra-marital births has increased significantly in all European countries. In this respect, Croatia falls in the group of countries with a low percentage ...of extra-marital births, albeit with significant regional differences. The objective of this paper is to analyse extra-marital birth trends on the larger Croatian islands over a period of almost fifty years (1970-2017). The focus of our research was the island of Korčula (especially the western part – the towns of Vela Luka and Blato), which shows significantly higher extra-marital birth rates than the other islands during the observed period. In addition to data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics regarding birth rates in rural areas, information from 19th-century birth registers was also used to explain the reasons Korčula’s distinctiveness in terms of extra-marital births.
Posljednjih pedeset godina u svim europskim zemljama znatno se povećao udio izvanbračnoga rađanja. Republika Hrvatska u tom pogledu pripada skupini zemalja s niskim udjelima, ali s naglašenim ...regionalnim razlikama. Cilj je rada analiza dinamike kretanja rađanja izvan braka na većim hrvatskim otocima u skoro pedesetogodišnjem razdoblju (1970. – 2017.). U središte istraživanja stavljen je otok Korčula koji se u cijelom promatranom razdoblju izdvaja od ostaloga otočnog prostora sa znatno većim udjelima rođene djece izvan braka, osobito njegov zapadni dio (Vela Luka i Blato). Osim podataka vitalne statistike Državnoga zavoda za statistiku na razini naselja, korišteni su i podaci matičnih knjiga iz 19. stoljeća s ciljem da se objasne razlozi posebnosti korčulanskoga prostora u pogledu izvanbračnih rađanja.
Over the last fifty years, the proportion of extra-marital births has increased significantly in all European countries. In this respect, Croatia falls in the group of countries with a low percentage ...of extra-marital births, albeit with significant regional differences. The objective of this paper is to analyse extra-marital birth trends on the larger Croatian islands over a period of almost fifty years (1970-2017). The focus of our research was the island of Korčula (especially the western part – the towns of Vela Luka and Blato), which shows significantly higher extra-marital birth rates than the other islands during the observed period. In addition to data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics regarding birth rates in rural areas, information from 19th-century birth registers was also used to explain the reasons Korčula’s distinctiveness in terms of extra-marital births.
U radu se analiziraju promjene u ukupnom kretanju broja stanovnika u naseljima Grada Knina u dva posljednja međupopisna razdoblja (1991.-2001., 2001.-2011.) te promjene u narodnosnoj strukturi ...stanovništva. Kako je rat prouzročio prisilne migracije koje su odredile demografske procese na tom području, posebna pažnja pridaje se proučavanju migracijskih obilježja stanovništva. Rezultati analize pokazuje da su se najveće promjene u demografskoj slici toga područja dogodile u međupopisnom razdoblju 1991.-2001. Obje komponente, koje su bile negativne, dovele su do znatnog pada broja stanovnika te do izrazitog smanjivanja autohtonog stanovništva. Posljedica toga jest promjena narodnosne strukture; predratno srpsko stanovništvo smanjeno je za više od tri četvrtine, a doseljavanje stanovništva iz ostalih dijelova Hrvatske te iz Bosne i Hercegovine dovelo je do dominacije Hrvata. Unatoč pozitivnom migracijskom saldu u posljednjem međupopisnom razdoblju, u većini naselja, koje obuhvaća ovo istraživanje, nepovoljni demografski procesi, okarakterizirani negativnim prirodnim prirastom te demografskim starenjem stanovništva, ukazuju na nastavak depopulacije koja će u nekim naseljima dovesti do demografskog izumiranja.
This paper analyses demographic ageing of the population in the County of Šibenik-Knin by using basic demographic indicators based on data collected from population censuses from 1971 to 2011. It ...analyses spatial differentiation of the ageing process at the level of the County, micro-regions, towns/municipalities and settlements. The research also provides a comparison of population ageing in different counties of the Republic of Croatia, from which it is evident that the County of Šibenik-Knin, as well as the Country of Lika-Senj, has the oldest population in Croatia. Ageing in the County of Šibenik-Knin, which was triggered by extreme rural exodus that was most intensive from the end of 1960s to the early 1970s, as well as by continuous declining fertility rates and by inherited age composition, was recorded at all territorial levels of the County. Although the ageing process started in littoral area (Primorje), hinterland (Zagora) experienced a faster and more intensive ageing. Based on numerous indicators of demographic ageing and its intensity, and compared with the point value indicators of ageing, it is evident that the population of the County of Šibenik-Knin is characterized by advanced old age. However, more than half of the observed settlements are characterized by very advanced or extremely advanced old age.
This paper analyses demographic ageing of the population in the County of Šibenik-Knin by using basic demographic indicators based on data collected from population censuses from 1971 to 2011. It ...analyses spatial differentiation of the ageing process at the level of the County, micro-regions, towns/municipalities and settlements. The research also provides a comparison of population ageing in different counties of the Republic of Croatia, from which it is evident that the County of Šibenik-Knin, as well as the Country of Lika-Senj, has the oldest population in Croatia. Ageing in the County of Šibenik-Knin, which was triggered by extreme rural exodus that was most intensive from the end of 1960s to the early 1970s, as well as by continuous declining fertility rates and by inherited age composition, was recorded at all territorial levels of the County. Although the ageing process started in littoral area (Primorje), hinterland (Zagora) experienced a faster and more intensive ageing. Based on numerous indicators of demographic ageing and its intensity, and compared with the point value indicators of ageing, it is evident that the population of the County of Šibenik-Knin is characterized by advanced old age. However, more than half of the observed settlements are characterized by very advanced or extremely advanced old age.
ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia's population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from ...supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migtration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends. // ABSTRACT IN FRENCH: Les projections à moyen terme pour la Croatie (2001-2031) ont été réalisées selon la méthode des composantes par cohorte. Elles sont présentées à travers 8 scénarios se basant sur diverses hypothèses au regard de la fertilité, les migrations et la mortalité. Les écarts entre les scénarios proviennent uniquement des différents chiffres relatifs à la fertilité et aux migrations, sachant que les hypothèses retenues pour la mortalité sont identiques pour tous les scénarios. Pour la population de base, on a pris les données du dernier recensement (2001) et évalué leurs chiffres corrigés au ler janvier. Les résultats des projections montrent que la dépopulation générale et naturelle de la Croatie va se poursuivre dans les 30 années à venir. A la fin de cette période (2031), on observera un vieillissement de la population par rapport au début (2001). Les différents scénarios ne présentent des écarts qu'au niveau de l'intensité du déroulement de ce processus de vieillissement, mais la tendance reste la même. Ainsi, dans les scénarios prévoyant un solde migratoire positif, le processus de vieillissement serait un peu plus lent. Le seul scénario supposant un maintien de la proportion de jeunes au niveau de 2001 et une lente croissance démographique, avec à la fin de la période de projection un nombre d'habitants supérieur à celui de 2001, est celle qui suppose un taux de fertilité élevé et inclut les migrations. L'influence des migrations est très grande pour les futurs processus démographiques. En effet, si elles ne peuvent influer à court terme sur l'évolution des processus démographiques, elles peuvent ralentir leurs tendances négatives déjà existantes. Reprinted by permission of the Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb
The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031,
determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in ...regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.
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