The solar cycle periodically reshapes the magnetic structure and radiative output of the Sun and determines its impact on the heliosphere roughly every 11 years. Besides this main periodicity, it ...shows century-long variations (including periods of abnormally low solar activity called grand minima). The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) has generated significant interest as the archetype of a grand minimum in magnetic activity for the Sun and other stars, suggesting a potential link between the Sun and changes in terrestrial climate. Recent reanalyses of sunspot observations have yielded a conflicted view on the evolution of solar activity during the past 400 years (a steady increase versus a constant level). This has ignited a concerted community-wide effort to understand the depth of the Maunder Minimum and the subsequent secular evolution of solar activity. The goal of this Perspective is to review recent work that uses historical data to estimate long-term solar variability, and to provide context to users of these estimates that may not be aware of their limitations. We propose a clear visual guide than can be used to easily assess observational coverage for different periods, as well as the level of disagreement between currently proposed sunspot group number series.
Besides their causal connection with long and short-term magnetic variability, solar bipolar magnetic regions are our chief source of insight into the location, size, and properties of large-scale ...toroidal magnetic structures in the solar interior. The great majority of these regions (~95%) follow a systematic east-west polarity orientation (Hale's law) that reverses in opposite hemispheres and across even and odd cycles. These regions also present a systematic north-south polarity orientation (Joy's law) that helps build the poloidal field that seeds the new cycle. Exceptions to Hale's law are rare and difficult to study due to their low numbers. Here, we present a statistical analysis of the inclination (tilt) with respect to the equator of Hale versus anti-Hale regions spanning four solar cycles, considering two complementary tilt definitions adopted in previous studies. Our results show that anti-Hale regions belong to a separate population than Hale regions, suggesting a different originating mechanism. However, we find that anti-Hale region tilts present similar systematic tilt properties and similar latitudinal distributions to Hale regions, implying a strong connection between the two. We see this as evidence that they belong to a common toroidal flux system. We speculate that anti-Hale regions originate from poloidal field sheared and strengthened on the spot after the emergence of Hale regions with very strong poloidal contribution. Thus, they are not in contradiction with the idea of largely coherent toroidal flux systems inside the solar interior.
Predicting the sub-cellular localization of a protein can provide useful information to uncover its molecular functions. In this sense, numerous prediction techniques have been developed, which ...usually have been focused on global information of the protein or sequence alignments. However, several studies have shown that the functional nature of proteins is ruled by conserved sub-sequence patterns known as domains. In this paper, an alternative methodology (PfamFeat) for gram-positive bacterial sub-cellular localization was developed. PfamFeat is based on information provided by Pfam database, which stores a series of HMM-profiles describing common protein domains. The likelihood of a sequence, to be generated by a given HMM-profile, can be used to characterize sequences in order to use pattern recognition techniques. Success rates obtained with a simple one-nearest neighbor classifier demonstrate that this method is competitive with popular sub-cellular prediction algorithms and it constitutes a promising research trend.
In this paper we address a discrepancy between the surface flux evolution in a 3D kinematic dynamo model and a 2D surface flux transport model that has been closely calibrated to the real Sun. We ...demonstrate that the difference is due to the connectivity of active regions to the toroidal field at the base of the convection zone, which is not accounted for in the surface-only model. Initially, we consider the decay of a single active region, firstly in a simplified Cartesian 2D model and subsequently the full 3D model. By varying the turbulent diffusivity profile in the convection zone, we find that increasing the diffusivity - so that active regions are more rapidly disconnected from the base of the convection zone - improves the evolution of the surface field. However, if we simulate a full solar cycle, we find that the dynamo is unable to sustain itself under such an enhanced diffusivity. This suggests that in order to accurately model the solar cycle, we must find an alternative way to disconnect emerging active regions, whilst conserving magnetic flux.
We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an ...update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal SN and GN re-construction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various proposed SN and (primarily) GN reconstruction methods closer to maturity, after which the new reconstructions (or combinations thereof) can be compared with (a) ``benchmark'' expectations for any normalization scheme (e.g., a general increase in observer normalization factors going back in time), and (b) independent proxy data series such as F10.7 and the daily range of variations of Earth's undisturbed magnetic field. New versions of the underlying databases for SN and GN will shortly become available for years through 2022 and we anticipate the release of next versions of these two time series in 2024.
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We ...isolate the contribution of individual regions from magnetograms for Cycles 21, 22 and 23 using a 2D surface flux transport model, and find that although the top ~10% of contributors tend to define sudden large variations in the axial dipole moment, the cumulative contribution of many weaker regions cannot be ignored. In order to recreate the axial dipole moment to a reasonable degree, many more regions are required in Cycle 23 than in Cycles 21 and 22 when ordered by contribution. We suggest that the negative contribution of the most significant regions of Cycle 23 could indeed be a cause of the weak polar field at the following cycle minimum and the low-amplitude Cycle 24. We also examine the relationship between a region's axial dipole moment contribution and its emergence latitude, flux, and initial axial dipole moment. We find that once the initial dipole moment of a given region has been measured, we can predict the long-term dipole moment contribution using emergence latitude alone.
An analysis of the sunspot observations made by Hevelius during 1642-1645 is presented. These records are the only systematic sunspot observations just before the Maunder Minimum. We have studied ...different phenomena meticulously recorded by Hevelius after translating the original Latin texts. We re-evaluate the observations of sunspot groups by Hevelius during this period and obtain an average value 7% greater than that calculated from his observations given in the current group database. Furthermore, the average of the active day fraction obtained in this work from Hevelius' records previous to the Maunder Minimum is significantly greater than the solar activity level obtained from Hevelius' sunspot observations made during the Maunder Minimum (70% vs. 30%). We also present the butterfly diagram obtained from the sunspot positions recorded by Hevelius for the period 1642-1645. It can be seen that no hemispheric asymmetry exists during this interval, in contrast with the Maunder Minimum. Hevelius noted a ~3-month period that appeared to lack sunspots in early 1645 that gave the first hint of the impending Maunder Minimum. Recent studies claim that the Maunder Minimum was not a grand minimum period speculating that astronomers of that time, due to the Aristotelian ideas, did not record all sunspots that they observed, producing thus an underestimation of the solar activity level. However, we show the good quality of the sunspot records made by Hevelius indicates that his reports of sunspots were true to the observations.
Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar ...surface, which in turn act as proxies for what occurs in the interior and provide source terms for coronal models. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize surface flux transport models using National Solar Observatory (NSO) magnetogram data for Solar Cycle 23. This is applied to both a 1D model that inserts new magnetic flux in the form of idealized bipolar magnetic regions, and also to a 2D model that assimilates specific shapes of real active regions. The genetic algorithm searches for parameter sets (meridional flow speed and profile, supergranular diffusivity, initial magnetic field, and radial decay time) that produce the best fit between observed and simulated butterfly diagrams, weighted by a latitude-dependent error structure which reflects uncertainty in observations. Due to the easily adaptable nature of the 2D model, the optimization process is repeated for Cycles 21, 22, and 24 in order to analyse cycle-to-cycle variation of the optimal solution. We find that the ranges and optimal solutions for the various regimes are in reasonable agreement with results from the literature, both theoretical and observational. The optimal meridional flow profiles for each regime are almost entirely within observational bounds determined by magnetic feature tracking, with the 2D model being able to accommodate the mean observed profile more successfully. Differences between models appear to be important in deciding values for the diffusive and decay terms. In like fashion, differences in the behaviours of different solar cycles lead to contrasts in parameters defining the meridional flow and initial field strength.
Bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are the cornerstone of solar variability. They are tracers of the large-scale magnetic processes that give rise to the solar cycle, shapers of the solar corona, ...building blocks of the large-scale solar magnetic field, and significant contributors to the free-energetic budget that gives rise to flares and coronal mass ejections. Surprisingly, no homogeneous catalog of BMRs exists today, in spite of the existence of systematic measurements of the magnetic field since the early 1970's. The purpose of this work is to address this deficiency by creating a homogenous catalog of BMRs from the 1970's until the present. For this purpose, in this paper we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the automatic and manual detection of BMRs and how both methods can be combined to form the basis of our Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code and its supporting human supervision module. At present, the BARD catalog contains more than 10,000 unique BMRs tracked and characterized during every day of their observation. Here we also discuss our future plans for the creation of an extended multi-scale magnetic catalog combining the SWAMIS and BARD catalogs.
We propose a phenomenological technique for modelling the emergence of active regions within a three-dimensional, kinematic dynamo framework. By imposing localised velocity perturbations, we create ...emergent flux-tubes out of toroidal magnetic field at the base of the convection zone, leading to the eruption of active regions at the solar surface. The velocity perturbations are calibrated to reproduce observed active region properties (including the size and flux of active regions, and the distribution of tilt angle with latitude), resulting in a more consistent treatment of flux-tube emergence in kinematic dynamo models than artificial flux deposition. We demonstrate how this technique can be used to assimilate observations and drive a kinematic 3D model, and use it to study the characteristics of active region emergence and decay as a source of poloidal field. We find that the poloidal components are strongest not at the solar surface, but in the middle convection zone, in contrast with the common assumption that the poloidal source is located near the solar surface. We also find that, while most of the energy is contained in the lower convection zone, there is a good correlation between the evolution of the surface and interior magnetic fields.
