We undertake to estimate the effects of real exchange rate misalignment and regional integration on the service sector performance in selected countries from East Africa during the period of ...1991–2017. The main findings, based on the traditional Pooled Mean Group ARDL technique as well as the alternative panel Cross-Sectional Autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach render support for an undervaluation-led services sector performance as well as the importance of regional integration in the observed linkage. Additional evidence reveals that both the monetary policy and the fiscal policy are key channels via which currency undervaluation impacts on the services sector output. The existence of non-linearities in an inverted U-shaped curve is equally confirmed in the data, where small and moderate undervaluations spur service sector performance just as large undervaluations after some threshold hinder it. Exchange rate volatility is found detrimental to the services sector in the long run. Policies that would help promote the underlying catalysts of undervaluation, curtail exchange rate volatility as well as those that promote deeper regional integration should be strengthened. Likewise, undervaluation policies would yield optimal benefits to the services sector once they are accompanied by well-calculated monetary and fiscal policies.
Despite innumerable government policies to reduce youth unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa, the problem persists. This study examines the extent to which the hysteresis effect exists in the youth ...unemployment rate in Sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1991 to 2021, disaggregated according to territorial delineation, income, and gender. First, we employ the univariate and panel unit root tests including the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, the Dickey-Fuller-Generalized Least Square by Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), the ADFmax by Leybourne (1995), and the Kwiatkowski, et al. (1992) test, to enable comparison with previous studies. The Pesaran's (2007), test is then applied to account for cross-sectional dependence. Finally, the Zivot--Andrews single structural break by Zivot and Andrews (1992), Clemente--Montane--Reyes two structural breaks unit root tests by Clemente, Montanes, and Reyes (1998), as well as the Karavias-Tzavalis panel unit root test with structural breaks by Karavias and Tzavalis (2014) are employed. The univariate unit root tests generally support the hysteresis hypothesis (within a band of 60% to 97%) for almost all countries, and sub-regions in SSA. However, accounting for structural breaks, the hysteresis effect in total youth unemployment is only visible in 19 countries (40%), with evidence of gender disparities pointing to the hysteresis effect in females only in 16 countries (34%), and, in males only in 10 countries (21.3%). The lower-middle-income countries reject the natural rate hypothesis in total and both male and female youth unemployment rates. While only male youths suffer from the hysteresis in low-income countries, the total youth in upper-middle-income countries shares this effect. Accounting for cross-section dependence alters the finding of the hysteresis effect only in males in Southern Africa and upper-middle-income countries. A one-size-fits-all policy may not work. Instead, we recommend an integral approach aimed at the creation of employment opportunities for youth and females, including but not limited to diversification of economic activities in rural areas to reduce urbanization, skills training, political and economic stability, cultural transformation to remove unnecessary gender-related employment discrimination, as well as improved economic integration policies. For countries found to exhibit the natural rate hypothesis, it may not be necessary to engage in costly policies to return the youth unemployment rate to equilibrium since the shock is only temporary.
Despite innumerable government policies to reduce youth unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa, the problem persists. This study examines the extent to which the hysteresis effect exists in the youth ...unemployment rate in Sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1991 to 2021, disaggregated according to territorial delineation, income, and gender. First, we employ the univariate and panel unit root tests including the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, the Dickey-Fuller-Generalized Least Square by Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), the ADFmax by Leybourne (1995), and the Kwiatkowski, et al. (1992) test, to enable comparison with previous studies. The Pesaran's (2007), test is then applied to account for cross-sectional dependence. Finally, the Zivot--Andrews single structural break by Zivot and Andrews (1992), Clemente--Montane--Reyes two structural breaks unit root tests by Clemente, Montanes, and Reyes (1998), as well as the Karavias-Tzavalis panel unit root test with structural breaks by Karavias and Tzavalis (2014) are employed. The univariate unit root tests generally support the hysteresis hypothesis (within a band of 60% to 97%) for almost all countries, and sub-regions in SSA. However, accounting for structural breaks, the hysteresis effect in total youth unemployment is only visible in 19 countries (40%), with evidence of gender disparities pointing to the hysteresis effect in females only in 16 countries (34%), and, in males only in 10 countries (21.3%). The lower-middle-income countries reject the natural rate hypothesis in total and both male and female youth unemployment rates. While only male youths suffer from the hysteresis in low-income countries, the total youth in upper-middle-income countries shares this effect. Accounting for cross-section dependence alters the finding of the hysteresis effect only in males in Southern Africa and upper-middle-income countries. A one-size-fits-all policy may not work. Instead, we recommend an integral approach aimed at the creation of employment opportunities for youth and females, including but not limited to diversification of economic activities in rural areas to reduce urbanization, skills training, political and economic stability, cultural transformation to remove unnecessary gender-related employment discrimination, as well as improved economic integration policies. For countries found to exhibit the natural rate hypothesis, it may not be necessary to engage in costly policies to return the youth unemployment rate to equilibrium since the shock is only temporary.
This paper investigates the direct and the indirect roles of migrant transfers in the saving behaviors of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the period 1997-2018. Using the ...autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) panel estimation technique, the results based on the Pooled Mean Group approach provide strong evidence of the importance of inward remittances to savings. On average, an increase in inward remittances by 1% leads to about 0.10% increase in savings ceteris paribus, but the effect is quantitatively larger in the short-run than in the long-run, albeit more significant in the latter case. Quite outstanding here is the observation of the detrimental role of remittances on savings in the long-run once governance quality in aggregate and disaggregated forms are controlled for, suggesting possible adverse effects of remittances for economic development in the long-run. Nevertheless, macroeconomic stability as well as institutional quality, foreign direct investment (FDI), and foreign aid were found to be important moderators of the remittances-savings linkage. For the latter two variables, emphasis is on complementarity rather than substitutability between remittances, aid, and FDI. While in the short-run remittances appear to perform better in enhancing savings in countries where an improvement in corruption control is visible, political rights and civil liberties compliment migrant transfers in propelling savings in the long- and short-runs, respectively. Moreover, remittances are found to play a major role in ameliorating the adverse effects of the financial crisis on savings, just as they are observed to function as a lifeline to savings in countries with increasing macroeconomic instability in form of inflation, in the long-run. The findings are robust to the use of alternative estimation techniques. Policy recommendations are suggested.
In Uganda, health care utilisation remains very low despite a number of government reforms that have been implemented in the health sector since the 1990's such as decentralization and removal of ...user fees in public health facilities among others.
To examine the factors influencing public and private health care utilisation in Uganda.
The study used cross sectional data from the Uganda National Household Survey collected between July 2016 and June 2017. Anderson's conceptual framework was used to identify explanatory variables associated with choice of health care providers and a multinomial logistic regression model was estimated.
Out of the 17,912 individuals who sought care, 36% used a government facility, 60% used private facility while 4% had self- care/treatment. The results show that out of pocket health expenditure, age, level of education, marital status, residence, and type of illness significantly influenced choice of public healthcare providers. Similarly, utilisation of private healthcare providers was associated with household welfare, level of education, residence, marital status, illness days, and type of illness.
The findings highlight the need for a national health insurance scheme to reduce out of pocket payments for health care and enable the poor and vulnerable patients visit the modern health facilities.
This paper examines the impact of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative on under five mortality rate (U5MR) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The HIPC Initiative involves debt forgiveness and the ...redirection of funds that were meant to service external debt towards the provision of social services and poverty reduction in eligible countries. The Initiative is akin to a natural experiment since some countries benefited while some did not, and the timing of debt forgiveness varied across countries. We exploit these variations to identify the impact of HIPC Initiative on child mortality using a dynamic panel data estimator. We find that participation in HIPC Initiative is associated with statistically significant decreases in U5MR. On the other hand, the impact of actual debt cancelled is statistically insignificant.
This paper examines the factors influencing the choice of private health care providers in Uganda. Although studies indicate that patients are price sensitive, many (63%) Ugandans prefer private ...health facilities to less expensive government health facilities. This is inconsistent with the government policy of abolishing user fees in government health facilities. Using the 2019/20 Uganda National Household Survey data, a probit regression model was estimated. The findings show that ownership of health insurance, household welfare and type of employment positively influenced the choice of private health facilities. Distance to the health facility negatively affected the utilisation of private health care providers. Additionally, the sex of the patient and region of residence were significant determinants. There is, therefore, a need for a national health insurance scheme and coordination between public and private health care providers to enable poor and vulnerable patients to visit modern health facilities.
Health insurance coverage in Uganda is still very low, with only five percent of the individuals covered by any form of health insurance. This study examines the factors that influence demand for ...private health insurance in Uganda using the 2016 Uganda Demographic Health Survey data. A logistic regression model was employed to identify the determinants of demand for voluntary health insurance in Uganda. The results showed that wealth index, level of education, age of the individual, marital status, residence, and access to information were significant factors affecting uptake of health insurance in Uganda. Individuals from well off households were more likely to have a health insurance cover compared to individuals from the poor ones. Also, individuals who had access to information through listening to radio, reading newspapers, and watching television were more likely to demand health insurance compared to those without access. The findings, therefore, highlight the need for poverty reduction strategies to enhance the incomes of the poor and provide educational interventions regarding the benefits of health insurance in all regions.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces a number of development challenges. This dissertation examines three health and development issues in Sub-Saharan Africa. It analyzes the impact of policy changes and ...interventions on child mortality, household food consumption and cesarean section births. The study is motivated by the Millennium Development Goals and policies which could affect their achievement. In the first essay, I investigate the impact of debt relief on under-five mortality rate. A dynamic panel data estimator is employed in the analysis. The results show that participation in the Highly Indebted Poor Countries(HIPC) Initiative is associated with a statistically significant reduction in under-five mortality rate.I conclude that conditionality of debt relief or development aid can improve health outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. The second essay examines the impact of private hospitals on the likelihood of cesarean section births in Uganda. The study is motivated by the increase in cesarean section births following proliferation of private hospitals and clinics. A theoretical model is developed, and it predicts that, information asymmetry , household wealth ,and severity of medical condition during childbirth increase the likelihood of cesarean section. In the empirical analysis, the main method of estimation used is a bivariate probit model. The results show that delivery at private hospitals increases the probability of cesarean section births. Thus, there is need to monitor private hospitals so that expectant mothers are protected from physician induced-demand for avoidable cesarean section births.The third essay studies the impact of agricultural extension services on household food consumption in Uganda. The study exploits the variation in participation in the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) to estimate the impact of the program on household food consumption. The results show that NAADS group membership and training are associated with increase in household food consumption. Hence, agricultural extension service can be used to reduce food insecurity. Policy recommendation and future studies are explored.
This dissertation examines three health and development issues in Sub-Saharan Africa. It analyzes the impact of policy changes and interventions on child mortality, household food consumption and ...cesarean section births. The study is motivated by the Millennium Development Goals and policies which could affect their achievement. In the first essay, I investigate the impact of debt relief on under-five mortality rate. A dynamic panel data estimator is employed in the analysis. The result shows that debt relief is associated with a statistically significant reduction in under-five mortality rate. I conclude that conditionality of debt relief or development aid can yield positive outcomes. The second essay examines the impact of private hospitals on the likelihood of cesarean section births in Uganda. The study is motivated by the increase in cesarean section births following the proliferation of private hospitals. The main method of estimation is a bivariate probit model. The results show that delivery at private hospitals increases the probability of cesarean section births, thus there is need to monitor private hospitals so that expectant mothers are protected from physician induced demand for avoidable cesarean section births. The final essay studies the impact of agricultural extension services on household food consumption in Uganda. The study exploits the variation in participation in the NAADS to estimate the impact of the program on household food consumption. I find that NAADS membership and training are associated with an increase in household food consumption, hence agricultural extension services can be used to reduce food insecurity. Policy recommendations and future studies are explored.
