Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many ...aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10-20 cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4 cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4 m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20° per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion.
The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum ...entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.
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•The likely future distribution of Bengal tiger in the Sundarbans forest was modeled using IPCC RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios.•Our results suggest a rapid decline in the Bengal tiger population and suitable habitats in the Sundarbans.•By 2070, there will be no suitable tiger habitats remaining in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.•Climate change will have a more pronounced effect on tiger habitats than that of sea level rise in the area.
Managing human use of ecosystems in an era of rapid environmental change requires an understanding of diverse stakeholders’ behaviors and perceptions to enable effective prioritization of actions to ...mitigate multiple threats. Specifically, research examining how threat perceptions are shared or diverge among stakeholder groups and how these can evolve through time is increasingly important. We investigated environmental threat perceptions related to Australia's Great Barrier Reef and explored their associations before and after consecutive years of mass coral bleaching. We used data from surveys of commercial fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents (n = 5254) conducted in 2013 and 2017. Threats perceived as most serious differed substantially among groups before bleaching but were strongly aligned after bleaching. Climate change became the most frequently reported threat by all stakeholder groups following the coral bleaching events, and perceptions of fishing and poor water quality as threats also ranked high. Within each of the 3 stakeholder groups, fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents, the prioritization of these 3 threats tended to diverge in 2013, but convergence occurred after bleaching. These results indicate an emergence of areas of agreement both within and across stakeholder groups. Changes in perceptions were likely influenced by high‐profile environmental‐disturbance events and media representations of threats. Our results provide insights into the plasticity of environmental‐threat perceptions and highlight how their convergence in response to major events may create new opportunities for strategic public engagement and increasing support for management.
Convergencia de la Percepción de las Amenazas Ambientales por los Actores Sociales después del Blanqueamiento Masivo del Coral de la Gran Barrera Arrecifal
Resumen
La administración del uso que las personas dan a los ecosistemas en una época de cambios ambientales rápidos requiere un entendimiento del comportamiento de diferentes actores sociales y sus percepciones para facilitar la priorización de las acciones que mitigan a las múltiples amenazas. Específicamente, las investigaciones que examinan cómo se comparten o difieren las percepciones de las amenazas entre los grupos de actores y cómo estas percepciones pueden evolucionar con el tiempo son cada vez más importantes. Investigamos las percepciones de las amenazas ambientales relacionadas con la Gran Barrera Arrecifal en Australia y exploramos sus asociaciones antes y después de varios años consecutivos de blanqueamiento masivo del coral. Usamos datos tomados de encuestas realizadas a pescadores comerciales, operadores turísticos y residentes de la costa (n = 5,254) en 2013 y 2017. Las amenazas percibidas como las más serias difirieron sustancialmente entre los tres grupos antes del blanqueamiento, pero se alinearon marcadamente después del blanqueamiento. El cambio climático se convirtió en la amenaza reportada con mayor frecuencia por todos los grupos de actores después de los eventos de blanqueamiento del coral. Las percepciones de la pesca y la baja calidad del agua como amenazas también tuvieron una clasificación alta. Dentro de cada uno de los tres grupos de actores (pescadores, operadores turísticos y residentes de la costa) la priorización de estas tres amenazas tendió a diferir en 2013 pero la convergencia ocurrió después del blanqueamiento. Estos resultados indican un surgimiento de áreas de acuerdo dentro y entre los grupos de actores. Los cambios en las percepciones probablemente estuvieron influenciados por eventos de perturbación ambiental de alto perfil y la representación mediática de las amenazas. Nuestros resultados proporcionaron conocimiento sobre la plasticidad de las percepciones de las amenazas ambientales y resalta cómo su convergencia en la respuesta a los eventos más importantes puede crear nuevas oportunidades para la participación estratégica del público e incrementar el apoyo para su manejo.
摘要
在环境快速变化的时代, 管理人类对生态系统的利用需要理解不同利益相关者的行为和观念, 从而有效地确定减缓多重威胁的行动的优先次序。具体来说, 研究利益相关者群体对于威胁认知的共识和分歧, 以及这些认知如何随时间推移而演变, 已变得越来越重要。本研究调查了利益相关者对澳大利亚大堡礁的环境威胁认知, 并探究了其在连续数年大规模珊瑚白化前后的相关性。我们使用了 2013 年和 2017 年对商业渔民、旅游经营者和沿海居民 (n = 5254) 的调查数据。结果显示, 在发生珊瑚白化之前, 不同群体的认知中最严重的威胁有很大差异, 但在珊瑚白化事件后则明显形成了共识, 气候变化成为所有利益相关者群体最频繁报告的威胁, 其它的高威胁还有捕捞和水质恶化。在渔民、旅游经营者和沿海居民这三个利益相关者群体中, 以上提及的三种威胁的优先级在 2013 年均趋于分化, 而在珊瑚白化后出现趋同。这些结果表明, 在利益相关者群体内部和相互之间都形成了共识。认知改变可能受到引人注目的环境干扰事件和媒体对威胁的报道的影响。我们的研究结果揭示了环境威胁认知的可塑性, 并强调了它们在响应重大事件时的趋同将如何为战略性的公众参与以及进一步的管理支持创造新机会。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: High‐profile environmental crises shape public perceptions and may create new opportunities to engage people with mitigation and adaptation.
Tropical forests are major contributors to the terrestrial global carbon pool, but this pool is being reduced via deforestation and forest degradation. Relatively few studies have assessed carbon ...storage in degraded tropical forests. We sampled 37,000 m(2) of intact rainforest, degraded rainforest and sclerophyll forest across the greater Wet Tropics bioregion of northeast Australia. We compared aboveground biomass and carbon storage of the three forest types, and the effects of forest structural attributes and environmental factors that influence carbon storage. Some degraded forests were found to store much less aboveground carbon than intact rainforests, whereas others sites had similar carbon storage to primary forest. Sclerophyll forests had lower carbon storage, comparable to the most heavily degraded rainforests. Our findings indicate that under certain situations, degraded forest may store as much carbon as intact rainforests. Strategic rehabilitation of degraded forests could enhance regional carbon storage and have positive benefits for tropical biodiversity.
Sea lice are a constraint on the sustainable growth of Scottish marine salmonid aquaculture. As part of an integrated pest management approach, farms coordinate procedures within spatial units. We ...present observations of copepodids being at relatively greater density than nauplii in upper waters, which informs the development of surface layer sea lice transmission modelling of Loch Linnhe, Scotland, for informing farm parasite management. A hydrodynamic model is coupled with a biological particle‐tracking model, with characteristics of plankton sea lice. Simulations are undertaken for May and October 2011–2013, forced by local wind data collected for those periods. Particles are continually released from positions representing farm locations, weighted by relative farm counts, over a 2‐week period and tracked for a further 5 days. A comparison is made between modelled relative concentrations against physical and biological surveys to provide confidence in model outputs. Connectivity between farm locations is determined in order to propose potential coordination areas. Generally, connectivity depends on flow patterns in the loch and decreases with increased farm separation. The connectivity indices are used to estimate the origins of the sea lice population composition at each site, which may influence medicinal regimens to avoid loss of efficacy.
New Zealand (NZ) has a central government-driven, tax-funded health system with the state as dominant payer. The NZ experience precedes and endorses the US concept of patient-centered medical homes ...providing population-based, nonepisodic care supported by network organizations. These networks provide administration, budget holding, incentivized programs, data feedback, peer review, education, human relations, and health information technology support and resources. Key elements include enrolled populations; an interdisciplinary team approach; health information technology interoperability and access between all providers as well as patients; devolution of hospital-based services into the community; intersectorial integration; blended payments (a combination of universal capitated funding, patient copayments, and targeted fee-for-service for specific items); and a balance of clinical, corporate, and community governance. In this article, we discuss reforms to NZ's primary care arrangements over the past 2 decades and reflect on the lessons learned, their relevance to the United States, and issues that remain to be resolved.
Hydrological processes have been identified as delivering ecosystem services that are fundamental to both human well-being and the maintenance of biodiversity. If we can map the hydrological ...processes and the threats to them, the integrity of the provision of ecosystem services from the catchment can be identified, highlighting areas in need of further protection. Using the Tully-Murray catchment in the Wet Tropics as a case study, we constructed a simplified description of the ecosystem functions and related processes, and identified the roles of the ecosystem service providers and beneficiaries. Mapping the riparian zone and adjacent land uses enabled us to visualise areas where non-remnant vegetation existed and also vegetation that was classified as ‘Endangered’ or ‘Of Concern’. An assessment of the riparian vegetation and adjacent land use revealed that 51% of the catchment contained non-remnant riparian vegetation (i.e. was cleared or under agricultural production) and 36% of remnant vegetation was described as “Endangered” with a further 35% being classified as “Of Concern”. This is consistent with the reported current threats from water quality degradation, habitat fragmentation and other anthropogenic influences driven by rapid economic growth. The findings and data derived from this project can be used for a range of purposes in managing the riparian zone. Mapping the riparian zone and adjacent land use has shown the different types of land uses that impact on waterways and this will assist natural resource managers in prioritizing areas where remnant vegetation should be retained or rehabilitated. With this information, adjacent landholders can improve their management of the riparian zone and remnant vegetation through gaining the ecosystem service benefits, and further are able to profit from grant applications and incentives. Maintaining a healthy waterway and retaining remnant riparian vegetation will offer the possibility to obtain many economic, biodiversity and aesthetic benefits both within the catchment and downstream as far as the Great Barrier Reef.
The chemokine receptor CCR5 plays a crucial role in transmission of HIV isolates, which predominate in the early and middle stages of infection, as well as those, which populate the brain and cause ...neuro-AIDS. CCR5 is therefore an attractive therapeutic target for design of entry inhibitors. Specific rapid filtration binding assays have been useful for almost 30 years both for drug discovery and understanding molecular mechanisms of drug action. Reported in 1986, prior to discovery of chemokine co-receptors and so thought to act at CD4, peptide T (DAPTA) appears to greatly reduce cellular viral reservoirs in both HAART experienced and treatment naïve patients, without toxicities. We here report that DAPTA potently inhibits specific CD4-dependent binding of gp120 Bal (IC
50
=
0.06
nM) and CM235 (IC
50
=
0.32
nM) to CCR5. In co-immunoprecipitation studies, DAPTA (1
nM) blocks formation of the gp120/sCD4 complex with CCR5. Confocal microscopic studies of direct FITC–DAPTA binding to CCR5+, but not CCR5−, cells show that CCR5 is a DAPTA receptor. The capability of DAPTA to potently block gp120–CD4 binding to the major co-receptor CCR5 explains its molecular and therapeutic mechanism of action as a selective antiviral entry inhibitor for R5 tropic HIV-1 isolates.
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