Eligibility for clinical trials in osteoarthritis (OA) is usually limited to Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grades 2 and 3 knees. Our aim was to describe the prevalence and severity of cartilage damage in KL ...2 and 3 knees by compartment and articular subregion.
The Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) study is a cohort study of individuals with or at risk for knee OA. All baseline MRIs with radiographic disease severity KL2 and 3 were included. Knee MRIs were read for cartilage damage in 14 subregions. We determined the frequencies of no, any and widespread full-thickness cartilage damage by knee compartment, and the prevalence of any cartilage damage in 14 articular subregions.
665 knees from 665 participants were included (mean age 63.8 ± 7.9 years, 66.5% women). 372 knees were KL2 and 293 knees were KL3. There was no cartilage damage in 78 (21.0%) medial tibio-femoral joint (TFJ), 157 (42.2%) lateral TFJ and 62 (16.7%) patello-femoral joint (PFJ) compartments of KL2 knees, and 17 (5.8%), 115 (39.3%) and 35 (12.0%) compartments, respectively, of KL3 knees. There was widespread full-thickness damage in 94 (25.3%) medial TFJ, 36 (9.7%) lateral TFJ and 176 (47.3%) PFJ compartments of KL2 knees, and 217 (74.1%), 70 (23.9%) and 104 (35.5%) compartments, respectively, of KL3 knees. The subregions most likely to have any damage were central medial femur (80.5%), medial patella (69.8%) and central medial tibia (69.9).
KL2 and KL3 knees vary greatly in cartilage morphology. Heterogeneity in the prevalence, severity and location of cartilage damage in in KL2 and 3 knees should be considered when planning disease modifying trials for knee OA.
Abstract
Key message
In European mountain forests, the growth of silver fir (
Abies alba
Mill.), sycamore maple (
Acer pseudoplatanus
L.), European beech (
Fagus sylvatica
L.) and Norway spruce (
...Picea abies
(L.) H. Karst.) seedlings is more strongly affected by ungulate browsing than by elevation. But, the constraint exerted by ungulates, in particular the probability for seedlings to be browsed, increases with elevation for most species.
Context
While concerns about mountain forest regeneration rise due to their high vulnerability to climate change, the increase in wild ungulate populations and the expansion of their range in the last decades exert an additional constraint on the survival and growth of young trees. Understanding how this constraint can vary with elevation is thus a key to assess the consequences of this population increase for the regeneration of mountain forests.
Aims
In this study, we investigate the effect of elevation on (i) the occurrence of browsing for seedlings and on (ii) the reduction in seedling growth induced by ungulate browsing.
Methods
We monitored height growth and browsing occurrence on silver fir, sycamore maple, European beech and Norway spruce seedlings across seven elevation gradients (from 400 to 2013 m) located from France to northern Sweden.
Results
Seedlings of the two most palatable species—fir and maple—were more likely to be browsed at high elevation while the opposite effect was observed for spruce. Browsing strongly reduced seedling growth for all species but Norway spruce, while elevation had no direct effect on seedling growth. This browsing-induced growth reduction was stronger at high elevation for fir seedlings.
Conclusions
Browsing is overall a stronger constraint on seedling growth than elevation for four dominant species of European mountain forests. Elevation can, however, affect both browsing probability and the effect of browsing on seedling growth. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account ungulate pressure and its interactive effect with elevation when forecasting the regeneration of mountain forests under a changing climate.
To determine how many persons with knee pain have subsequent pain resolution and what factors are associated with resolution, focusing especially on types of physical activity.
Using data from MOST, ...an NIH funded longitudinal cohort study of persons with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis, we studied participants who at baseline reported knee pain on most days at both a telephone interview and clinic visit. We defined pain resolution if at 30 and 60 month exams, they reported no knee pain on most days and compared these participants to those who reported persistent pain later. In logistic regression analyses, we examined the association of baseline risk factors including demographic factors, BMI, depressive symptoms, isokinetic quadriceps strength and both overall physical activity (using the PASE survey) and specific activities including walking, gardening, and different intensities of recreational activities with pain resolution.
Of 1,304 participants with knee pain on most days at baseline, 265 (20.3%) reported no knee pain at 30 and 60 months. Lower BMI and stronger quadriceps were associated with higher odds of pain resolution while overall physical activity was not. Of activities, walking decreased the odds of pain resolution (adjOR = 0.86 (95% CI 0.76, 0.98)), but gardening (adjOR = 1.59 (1.16, 2.18)) and moderate intensity recreational activities ((adjOR = 1.24 (1.05, 1.46)) increased it.
Pain resolution is common in those with knee pain. Factors increasing the odds of pain resolution include lower BMI, greater quadriceps strength and gardening and moderately intensive recreational activities.
Higher intake of fiber has been associated with lower risk of incident symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA). We examined whether levels of alkylresorcinol (AR), a marker of whole grain intake, were ...associated with OA in subjects in The Multicenter Osteoarthritis (MOST) Study.
Knee x-rays and knee pain were assessed at baseline and through 60-months. Stored baseline fasting plasma samples were analyzed for AR homologues (C17:0, C19:0, C21:0, C23:0, C25:0) and total AR levels (AR sum). Two nested case–control studies, one for incident radiographic OA and one for incident symptomatic OA were performed with participants re-assessed at 15, 30 and 60 months. Multivariable conditional logistic regression with baseline covariates including age, sex, BMI, physical activity, quadriceps strength, race, smoking, depressive symptoms, diabetes and knee injury tested the association of log transformed AR levels with OA outcomes.
Seven hundred seventy-seven subjects were, on average, in their 60's, and most were women. For 60-month cumulative incidence, there was no significant association between quartiles of AR concentration and incident radiographic (e.g., for incident radiographic OA, highest vs lowest quartile of AR sum showed RR = 0.93 (95% CI 0.59, 1.47), and for symptomatic OA RR was 1.22 (95% CI 0.76, 1.94). In secondary analyses examining 30-month incidence, high AR levels were associated with a reduced risk of X-ray OA (RR = 0.31 (95% CI 0.15, 0.64).
In primary analyses, AR levels were not associated with risk of OA, but secondary analyses left open the possibility that high AR levels may protect against OA.
Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is ...the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition) and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation). Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.
Fragmentation and habitat loss are considered among the most important threats to biodiversity. More precisely, transformation of natural habitats into farmlands has been identified as one of the ...primary causes of plant species extinction. Therefore, understanding the effects of habitat fragmentation is crucial to the successful conservation of threatened species. Metapopulation modeling is one of the prospective tools used in conservation biology to evaluate long‐term survival in fragmented landscapes. In this work, we applied a metapopulation approach to the conservation of the rare plant Euphorbia gaditana Coss., an endangered species growing on the margins of crops in southern Spain. The species is threatened due to herbicide application and intensification of cultivation, which results in a highly patchy distribution, with more than 50 patches of habitat across three separate networks of patches. We used IFM (Incidence Function Modeling) to compare the relative effectiveness of four conservation management scenarios and the effect of three threat scenarios on the risk of extinction of the species. The results of our simulations of population dynamics under plausible management scenarios will aid conservation decision‐making, for example, allowing priority conservation areas to be identified or assessing the effect of future reintroductions.
Quantifying dispersal is fundamental to understanding the effects of fragmentation on populations. Although it has been shown that patch and matrix quality can affect dispersal patterns, standard ...metapopulation models are usually based on the two basic variables, patch area and connectivity. In 2004 we studied migration patterns among 18 habitat patches in central Spain for the butterfly lolana iolas, using mark-release-recapture methods. We applied the virtual migration (VM) model and estimated the parameters of emigration, immigration and mortality separately for males and females. During parameter estimation and model simulations, we used original and modified patch areas accounting for habitat quality with three different indices. Two indices were based on adult and larval resources (flowers and fruits) and the other one on butterfly density. Based on unmodified areas, our results showed that both sexes were markedly different in their movements and mortality rates. Females emigrated more frequently from patches, but males that emigrated were estimated to move longer daily dispersal distances and suffer higher mortality than females during migration. Males were more likely to emigrate from small than from large patches, but patch area had no significant effect on female emigration. The effects of area on immigration rate and the within-patch mortality were similar in both sexes. Based on modified areas, the estimated parameter values and the model simulation results were similar to those estimated using the unmodified patch areas. One possible reason for the failure to significantly improve the parameter estimates of the VM model is the fact that resource quantity and butterfly population sizes were strongly correlated with patch area. Our results suggest that the standard VM modelling approach, based on patch area and connectivity, can provide a realistic picture of the movement patterns of I. iolas.
Summary
Fungi are principal actors of forest soils implied in many ecosystem services and the mediation of tree's responses. Forecasting fungal responses to environmental changes is necessary for ...maintaining forest productivity, although our partial understanding of how abiotic and biotic factors affect fungal communities is restricting the predictions. We examined fungal communities of Pinus sylvestris along elevation gradients to check potential responses to climate change‐associated factors. Fungi of roots and soils were analysed at a regional scale, by using a high‐throughput sequencing approach. Overall soil fungal richness increased with pH, whereas it did not vary with climate. However, when representative sub‐assemblages, i.e. Ascomycetes/Basidiomycetes, and families were analysed, they differentially answered to climatic and edaphic variables. This response was dependent on where they settled, i.e. soil versus roots, and/or on their lifestyle, i.e. mycorrhizal or not, suggesting different potential functional weights within the community. Our results revealed a highly compartmentalized and contrasted response of fungal communities in forest soils. The different response of fungal sub‐assemblages indicated a range of possible selective direct and indirect (i.e. via host) impacts of climatic variations on these communities, of unknown functional consequences, that helps in understanding potential fungal responses under future global change scenarios.
Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species ...upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.
The 3D steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the ITER vacuum vessel (VV) regular sector #5 is presented, starting from the CATIA models and using a suite of tools from the ...commercial software ANSYS FLUENT®. The peculiarity of the problem is linked to the wide range of spatial scales involved in the analysis, from the millimeter-size gaps between in-wall shielding (IWS) plates to the more than 10m height of the VV itself. After performing several simplifications in the geometrical details, a computational mesh with ∼50 million cells is generated and used to compute the steady-state pressure and flow fields from a Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes model with SST k-ω turbulence closure. The coolant mass flow rate turns out to be distributed 10% through the inboard and the remaining 90% through the outboard. The toroidal and poloidal ribs present in the VV structure constitute significant barriers for the flow, giving rise to large recirculation regions. The pressure drop is mainly localized in the inlet and outlet piping.
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