We describe a Bayesian rejection-sampling algorithm designed to efficiently compute posterior distributions of orbital elements for data covering short fractions of long-period exoplanet orbits. Our ...implementation of this method, Orbits for the Impatient (OFTI), converges up to several orders of magnitude faster than two implementations of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in this regime. We illustrate the efficiency of our approach by showing that OFTI calculates accurate posteriors for all existing astrometry of the exoplanet 51 Eri b up to 100 times faster than a Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. We demonstrate the accuracy of OFTI by comparing our results for several orbiting systems with those of various MCMC implementations, finding the output posteriors to be identical within shot noise. We also describe how our algorithm was used to successfully predict the location of 51 Eri b six months in the future based on less than three months of astrometry. Finally, we apply OFTI to 10 long-period exoplanets and brown dwarfs, all but one of which have been monitored over less than 3% of their orbits, producing fits to their orbits from astrometric records in the literature.
We present the first statistical analysis of exoplanet direct imaging surveys combining adaptive optics (AO) imaging at small separations with deep seeing-limited observations at large separations ...allowing us to study the entire orbital separation domain from 5 to 5000 au simultaneously. Our sample of 344 stars includes only confirmed members of nearby young associations and is based on all AO direct-imaging detection limits readily available online, with addition of our own previous seeing-limited surveys. Assuming that the companion distribution in mass and a semimajor axis follows a power-law distribution and adding a dependence on the mass of the host star, such as , we constrain the parameters to obtain , , and at a 68% confidence level, and we obtain for the overall planet occurrence rate for companions with masses between 1 and 20 in the range of 5-5000 au. Thus, we find that occurrence of companions is negatively correlated with a semimajor axis and companion mass (marginally) but is positively correlated with the stellar host mass. Our inferred mass distribution is in good agreement with other distributions found previously from direct imaging surveys for planets and brown dwarfs, but is shallower as a function of mass than the distributions inferred by radial velocity surveys of gas giants in the 1-3 au range. This may suggest that planets at these wide and very wide separations represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs and stellar companion distribution rather than an extension of the distribution of the inner planets.
Nearly 15 yr of radial velocity (RV) monitoring and direct imaging enabled the detection of two giant planets orbiting the young, nearby star β Pictoris. The δ Scuti pulsations of the star, which ...overwhelm planetary signals, need to be carefully suppressed. In this work, we independently revisit the analysis of the RV data following a different approach than available in the literature to model the activity of the star. We show that a Gaussian process (GP) with a stochastically driven damped harmonic oscillator kernel can model the δ Scuti pulsations. It provides similar results to parametric models but with a simpler framework, using only three hyperparameters. It also enables us to model poorly sampled RV data that were excluded from previous analyses, hence extending the RV baseline by nearly five years. Altogether, the orbit and mass of both planets can be constrained from RV only, which was not possible with the parametric modeling. To characterize the system more accurately, we also perform a joint fit of all available relative astrometry and RV data. Our orbital solutions for b favor a low eccentricity of and a relatively short period of yr. The orbit of c is eccentric with with a period of 3.36 0.03 yr. We find model-independent masses of 11.7 1.4 and 8.5 0.5 for b and c, respectively, assuming coplanarity. The mass of b is consistent with the hottest start evolutionary models, at an age of 25 3 Myr. A direct detection of c would provide a second calibration measurement in a coeval system.
ABSTRACT
We present a velocimetric and spectropolarimetric analysis of 27 observations of the 22-Myr M1 star AU Microscopii (AU Mic) collected with the high-resolution YJHK (0.98–2.35 μm) ...spectropolarimeter SPIRou from 2019 September 18 to November 14. Our radial velocity (RV) time-series exhibits activity-induced fluctuations of 45 m s−1 rms, ∼3 times smaller than those measured in the optical domain, that we filter using Gaussian Process Regression. We report a 3.9σ detection of the recently discovered 8.46 -d transiting planet AU Mic b, with an estimated mass of 17.1$^{+4.7}_{-4.5}$ M⊕ and a bulk density of 1.3 ± 0.4 g cm−3, inducing an RV signature of semi-amplitude K = 8.5$^{+2.3}_{-2.2}$ m s−1 in the spectrum of its host star. A consistent detection is independently obtained when we simultaneously image stellar surface inhomogeneities and estimate the planet parameters with Zeeman–Doppler imaging (ZDI). Using ZDI, we invert the time-series of unpolarized and circularly polarized spectra into surface brightness and large-scale magnetic maps. We find a mainly poloidal and axisymmetric field of 475 G, featuring, in particular, a dipole of 450 G tilted at 19° to the rotation axis. Moreover, we detect a strong differential rotation of dΩ = 0.167 ± 0.009 rad d−1 shearing the large-scale field, about twice stronger than that shearing the brightness distribution, suggesting that both observables probe different layers of the convective zone. Even though we caution that more RV measurements are needed to accurately pin down the planet mass, AU Mic b already appears as a prime target for constraining planet formation models, studying the interactions with the surrounding debris disc, and characterizing its atmosphere with upcoming space- and ground-based missions.
We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey. This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these ...detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semimajor axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M* > 1.5 M more likely to host planets with masses between 2 and 13MJup and semimajor axes of 3-100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semimajor axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M* > 1.5 M ) of the form , finding = −2.4 0.8 and β = −2.0 0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of % between 5-13MJup and 10-100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with % of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13-80MJup and 10-100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semimajor axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semimajor axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the radial velocity method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ∼1 and 10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.
Abstract
We present the first statistical analysis of exoplanet direct imaging surveys combining adaptive optics (AO) imaging at small separations with deep seeing-limited observations at large ...separations allowing us to study the entire orbital separation domain from 5 to 5000 au simultaneously. Our sample of 344 stars includes only confirmed members of nearby young associations and is based on all AO direct-imaging detection limits readily available online, with addition of our own previous seeing-limited surveys. Assuming that the companion distribution in mass and a semimajor axis follows a power-law distribution and adding a dependence on the mass of the host star, such as
, we constrain the parameters to obtain
,
, and
at a 68% confidence level, and we obtain
for the overall planet occurrence rate for companions with masses between 1 and 20
in the range of 5–5000 au. Thus, we find that occurrence of companions is negatively correlated with a semimajor axis and companion mass (marginally) but is positively correlated with the stellar host mass. Our inferred mass distribution is in good agreement with other distributions found previously from direct imaging surveys for planets and brown dwarfs, but is shallower as a function of mass than the distributions inferred by radial velocity surveys of gas giants in the 1–3 au range. This may suggest that planets at these wide and very wide separations represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs and stellar companion distribution rather than an extension of the distribution of the inner planets.
We report the results of a ∼4 yr direct imaging survey of 104 stars to resolve and characterize circumstellar debris disks in scattered light as part of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) Exoplanet ...Survey. We targeted nearby ( 150 pc), young ( 500 Myr) stars with high infrared (IR) excesses (LIR/L > 10−5), including 38 with previously resolved disks. Observations were made using the GPI high-contrast integral field spectrograph in H-band (1.6 m) coronagraphic polarimetry mode to measure both polarized and total intensities. We resolved 26 debris disks and 3 protoplanetary/transitional disks. Seven debris disks were resolved in scattered light for the first time, including newly presented HD 117214 and HD 156623, and we quantified basic morphologies of five of them using radiative transfer models. All of our detected debris disks except HD 156623 have dust-poor inner holes, and their scattered-light radii are generally larger than corresponding radii measured from resolved thermal emission and those inferred from spectral energy distributions. To assess sensitivity, we report contrasts and consider causes of nondetections. Detections were strongly correlated with high IR excess and high inclination, although polarimetry outperformed total intensity angular differential imaging for detecting low-inclination disks ( 70°). Based on postsurvey statistics, we improved upon our presurvey target prioritization metric predicting polarimetric disk detectability. We also examined scattered-light disks in the contexts of gas, far-IR, and millimeter detections. Comparing H-band and ALMA fluxes for two disks revealed tentative evidence for differing grain properties. Finally, we found no preference for debris disks to be detected in scattered light if wide-separation substellar companions were present.
We present optical and near-infrared high-contrast images of the transitional disk HD 100546 taken with the Magellan Adaptive Optics system (MagAO) and the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI). GPI data ...include both polarized intensity and total intensity imagery, and MagAO data are taken in Simultaneous Differential Imaging mode at H . The new GPI H-band total intensity data represent a significant enhancement in sensitivity and field rotation compared to previous data sets and enable a detailed exploration of substructure in the disk. The data are processed with a variety of differential imaging techniques (polarized, angular, reference, and simultaneous differential imaging) in an attempt to identify the disk structures that are most consistent across wavelengths, processing techniques, and algorithmic parameters. The inner disk cavity at 15 au is clearly resolved in multiple data sets, as are a variety of spiral features. While the cavity and spiral structures are identified at levels significantly distinct from the neighboring regions of the disk under several algorithms and with a range of algorithmic parameters, emission at the location of HD 100546 "c" varies from point-like under aggressive algorithmic parameters to a smooth continuous structure with conservative parameters, and is consistent with disk emission. Features identified in the HD 100546 disk bear qualitative similarity to computational models of a moderately inclined two-armed spiral disk, where projection effects and wrapping of the spiral arms around the star result in a number of truncated spiral features in forward-modeled images.
Abstract
Using the Gemini Planet Imager located at Gemini South, we measured the near-infrared (1.0–2.4
μ
m) spectrum of the planetary companion to the nearby, young star
β
Pictoris. We compare the ...spectrum obtained with currently published model grids and with known substellar objects and present the best matching models as well as the best matching observed objects. Comparing the empirical measurement of the bolometric luminosity to evolutionary models, we find a mass of 12.9 ± 0.2
, an effective temperature of 1724 ± 15 K, a radius of 1.46 ± 0.01
, and a surface gravity of
dex (cgs). The stated uncertainties are statistical errors only, and do not incorporate any uncertainty on the evolutionary models. Using atmospheric models, we find an effective temperature of 1700–1800 K and a surface gravity of
–4.0 dex depending upon the model. These values agree well with other publications and with “hot-start” predictions from planetary evolution models. Further, we find that the spectrum of
β
Pic b best matches a low surface gravity L2 ± 1 brown dwarf. Finally, comparing the spectrum to field brown dwarfs, we find the the spectrum best matches 2MASS J04062677–381210 and 2MASS J03552337+1133437.
ABSTRACT A principal scientific goal of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is obtaining milliarcsecond astrometry to constrain exoplanet orbits. However, astrometry of directly imaged exoplanets is ...subject to biases, systematic errors, and speckle noise. Here, we describe an analytical procedure to forward model the signal of an exoplanet that accounts for both the observing strategy (angular and spectral differential imaging) and the data reduction method (Karhunen-Loève Image Projection algorithm). We use this forward model to measure the position of an exoplanet in a Bayesian framework employing Gaussian processes and Markov-chain Monte Carlo to account for correlated noise. In the case of GPI data on β Pic b, this technique, which we call Bayesian KLIP-FM Astrometry (BKA), outperforms previous techniques and yields 1 errors at or below the one milliarcsecond level. We validate BKA by fitting a Keplerian orbit to 12 GPI observations along with previous astrometry from other instruments. The statistical properties of the residuals confirm that BKA is accurate and correctly estimates astrometric errors. Our constraints on the orbit of β Pic b firmly rule out the possibility of a transit of the planet at 10- significance. However, we confirm that the Hill sphere of β Pic b will transit, giving us a rare chance to probe the circumplanetary environment of a young, evolving exoplanet. We provide an ephemeris for photometric monitoring of the Hill sphere transit event, which will begin at the start of April in 2017 and finish at the end of January in 2018.
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