Abstract
We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior ...Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be
12.39
−
0.98
+
1.30
km and
2.072
−
0.066
+
0.067
M
⊙
respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is
log
10
(
T
K
)
=
5.99
−
0.06
+
0.05
for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters (within the prior support) and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.
Abstract We report a revised analysis for the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, studied previously with joint fits to NICER and XMM-Newton data ...by Riley et al. (2021) and Miller et al. (2021). We perform a similar Bayesian estimation for the pulse-profile model parameters, except that instead of fitting simultaneously the XMM-Newton data, we use the best available NICER background estimates to constrain the number of photons detected from the source. This approach eliminates any potential issues in the cross-calibration between these two instruments, providing thus an independent check of the robustness of the analysis. The obtained neutron star parameter constraints are compatible with the already published results, with a slight dependence on how conservative the imposed background limits are. A tighter lower limit causes the inferred radius to increase, and a tighter upper limit causes it to decrease. We also extend the study of the inferred emission geometry to examine the degree of deviation from antipodality of the hot regions. We show that there is a significant offset to an antipodal spot configuration, mainly due to the non-half-cycle azimuthal separation of the two emitting spots. The offset angle from the antipode is inferred to be above 25° with 84% probability. This seems to exclude a centered-dipolar magnetic field in PSR J0740+6620.
We describe the model of surface emission from a rapidly rotating neutron star that is applied to Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray data of millisecond pulsars in order to ...statistically constrain the neutron star mass-radius relation and dense matter equation of state. To ensure that the associated calculations are both accurate and precise, we conduct an extensive suite of verification tests between our numerical codes for both the Schwarzschild + Doppler and Oblate Schwarzschild approximations, and compare both approximations against exact numerical calculations. We find superb agreement between the code outputs, as well as in comparisons against a set of analytical and semi-analytical calculations, which, combined with their speed, demonstrates that the codes are well suited for large-scale statistical sampling applications. A set of verified, high-precision reference synthetic pulse profiles is provided to the community to facilitate testing of other independently developed codes.
Abstract
In the last few years, the NICER collaboration has provided mass and radius inferences, via pulse profile modeling, for two pulsars: PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620. Given the importance ...of these results for constraining the equation of state of dense nuclear matter, it is crucial to validate them and test their robustness. We therefore explore the reliability of these results and their sensitivity to analysis settings and random processes, including noise, focusing on the specific case of PSR J0030+0451. We use X-ray Pulse Simulation and Inference (X-PSI), one of the two main analysis pipelines currently employed by the NICER collaboration for mass and radius inferences. With synthetic data that mimic the PSR J0030+0451 NICER data set, we evaluate the recovery performances of X-PSI under conditions not previously tested, including complex modeling of the thermally emitting neutron star surface. For the test cases explored, our results suggest that X-PSI is capable of recovering the true mass and radius within reasonable credible intervals. This work also reveals the main vulnerabilities of the analysis: a significant dependence on noise and the presence of multimodal structure in the posterior surface. Noise particularly impacts our sensitivity to the analysis settings and widths of the posterior distributions. The multimodal structure in the posterior suggests that biases could be present if the analysis is unable to exhaustively explore the parameter space. Convergence testing, to ensure an adequate coverage of the parameter space and a suitable representation of the posterior distribution, is one possible solution to these challenges.
Abstract
In 2019 the NICER collaboration published the first mass and radius inferred for PSR J0030+0451, thanks to NICER observations, and consequent constraints on the equation of state ...characterizing dense matter. Two independent analyses found a mass of ∼1.3–1.4
M
⊙
and a radius of ∼13 km. They also both found that the hot spots were all located on the same hemisphere, opposite to the observer, and that at least one of them had a significantly elongated shape. Here we reanalyze, in greater detail, the same NICER data set, incorporating the effects of an updated NICER response matrix and using an upgraded analysis framework. We expand the adopted models and also jointly analyze XMM-Newton data, which enables us to better constrain the fraction of observed counts coming from PSR J0030+0451. Adopting the same models used in previous publications, we find consistent results, although with more stringent inference requirements. We also find a multimodal structure in the posterior surface. This becomes crucial when XMM-Newton data is accounted for. Including the corresponding constraints disfavors the main solutions found previously, in favor of the new and more complex models. These have inferred masses and radii of ∼1.4
M
⊙
, 11.5 km and ∼1.7
M
⊙
, 14.5 km, depending on the assumed model. They display configurations that do not require the two hot spots generating the observed X-rays to be on the same hemisphere, nor to show very elongated features, and point instead to the presence of temperature gradients and the need to account for them.
Abstract
The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible ‘tipping point’ when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, ...inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are poorly understood. Here we show that reduction in evapotranspiration from 20 years of deforestation dried the atmosphere persistently and caused moisture decoupling, i.e. an opposite sign of moisture change between the lower and middle troposphere. Increased deforestation exacerbated the lower troposphere drying and caused it to penetrate deeper into the middle troposphere in the dry and transition seasons over monsoon forests and savannas. Deforestation induced warming-enhanced buoyant updrafts, elevated hot and dry air and thereby reduced downward mixing of water supplies from the tropical Atlantic that normally moisten the Amazon forests. The severe atmospheric desiccation in the southern and eastern Amazon cannot be compensated by enhanced water supplies from the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating an irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle exacerbated by rapid deforestation. The more recent drying through the seasons over rainforests and during the wet season over the transition zones from rainforests to monsoon forests and savannas, however, suggests a window of opportunity for preventing ecosystem collapse with forest conservation.
The appropriate dose of aspirin to lower the risk of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke and to minimize major bleeding in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a ...subject of controversy.
Using an open-label, pragmatic design, we randomly assigned patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease to a strategy of 81 mg or 325 mg of aspirin per day. The primary effectiveness outcome was a composite of death from any cause, hospitalization for myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for stroke, assessed in a time-to-event analysis. The primary safety outcome was hospitalization for major bleeding, also assessed in a time-to-event analysis.
A total of 15,076 patients were followed for a median of 26.2 months (interquartile range IQR, 19.0 to 34.9). Before randomization, 13,537 (96.0% of those with available information on previous aspirin use) were already taking aspirin, and 85.3% of these patients were previously taking 81 mg of daily aspirin. Death, hospitalization for myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for stroke occurred in 590 patients (estimated percentage, 7.28%) in the 81-mg group and 569 patients (estimated percentage, 7.51%) in the 325-mg group (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.91 to 1.14). Hospitalization for major bleeding occurred in 53 patients (estimated percentage, 0.63%) in the 81-mg group and 44 patients (estimated percentage, 0.60%) in the 325-mg group (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.77). Patients assigned to 325 mg had a higher incidence of dose switching than those assigned to 81 mg (41.6% vs. 7.1%) and fewer median days of exposure to the assigned dose (434 days IQR, 139 to 737 vs. 650 days IQR, 415 to 922).
In this pragmatic trial involving patients with established cardiovascular disease, there was substantial dose switching to 81 mg of daily aspirin and no significant differences in cardiovascular events or major bleeding between patients assigned to 81 mg and those assigned to 325 mg of aspirin daily. (Funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute; ADAPTABLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02697916.).
We present the set of deep Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) X-ray timing observations of the nearby rotation-powered millisecond pulsars PSRs J0437−4715, J0030+0451, J1231−1411, and ...J2124−3358, selected as targets for constraining the mass-radius relation of neutron stars and the dense matter equation of state (EoS) via modeling of their pulsed thermal X-ray emission. We describe the instrument, observations, and data processing/reduction procedures, as well as the series of investigations conducted to ensure that the properties of the data sets are suitable for parameter estimation analyses to produce reliable constraints on the neutron star mass-radius relation and the dense matter EoS. We find that the long-term timing and flux behavior and the Fourier-domain properties of the event data do not exhibit any anomalies that could adversely affect the intended measurements. From phase-selected spectroscopy, we find that emission from the individual pulse peaks is well described by a single-temperature hydrogen atmosphere spectrum, with the exception of PSR J0437−4715, for which multiple temperatures are required.
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