The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects ...to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.
Abstract
Public expectations have been set for the development of skillful meteorological forecasts of unprecedented leads out to a month or two, filling the so-called subseasonal to seasonal ...prediction gap. While both the weather and climate communities, coordinated internationally by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), respectively, can contribute to address this challenge, neither of them can effectively meet the challenge alone. The WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project and related initiatives such as the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program S2S Prediction Task Force are providing a framework for needed weather–climate community interactions. Such joint weather–climate efforts need to be sustained in the future for continued progress in subseasonal to seasonal prediction.
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in ...simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.
The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project Tompkins, Adrian M.; De Zárate, María Inés Ortiz; Saurral, Ramiro I. ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
11/2017, Letnik:
98, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The database is accessed by scientists around the world.Since its inception the database has seen a steady increase in active users, who originate from more than 30 countries.The only rule for ...consideration is that suggested model hindcast experiments should be conducted in true forecast mode and should not incorporate any information concerning the climate or environment after the experiment initialization, such as data concerning the evolution of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or the occurrence of volcanic eruptions.First and foremost, the forecasting systems that have contributed to the CHFP are not static but are subject to intermittent upgrades with improvements to model physics and data assimilation systems.FOR FURTHER READING Adrian M Tompkins (1), María Inés Ortiz De Zárate (2), Ramiro I Saurral (3), Carolina Vera (4), Celeste Saulo (5), William J Merryfield (6), Michael Sigmond (7), Woo-Sung Lee (8), Johanna Baehr (9), Alain Braun (10), Amy Butler (11), Michel Déqué (12), Francisco J Doblas-Reyes (13), Margaret Gordon (14), Adam A Scaife (15), Yukiko Imada (16), Masayoshi Ishii (17), Tomoaki Ose (18), Ben Kirtman (19), Arun Kumar (20), Wolfgang A Müller (21), Anna Pirani (22), Tim Stockdale (23), Michel Rixen (24), Tamaki Yasuda (25) (1) Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy (2) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera/UBA-CONICET, DCAO, and UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina (3) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera/UBA-CONICET, DCAO, and UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina (4) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera/UBA-CONICET, DCAO, and UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina (5) Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina (6) CCCma, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada (7) CCCma, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada (8) CCCma, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada (9) Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany (10) Météo-France, Toulouse, France (11) NOAA/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado (12) Météo-France, Toulouse, France (13) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, and Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain (14) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom (15) Met Office, and College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom (16) Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan (17) Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan (18) Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan (19) Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida (20) NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland (21) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany (22) Université Paris Saclay, Paris, France, and Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy (23) ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom (24) World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (25) Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan
The data request of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) defines all the quantities from CMIP6 simulations that should be archived. This includes both quantities of general ...interest needed from most of the CMIP6-endorsed model intercomparison projects (MIPs) and quantities that are more specialized and only of interest to a single endorsed MIP. The complexity of the data request has increased from the early days of model intercomparisons, as has the data volume. In contrast with CMIP5, CMIP6 requires distinct sets of highly tailored variables to be saved from each of the more than 200 experiments. This places new demands on the data request information base and leads to a new requirement for development of software that facilitates automated interrogation of the request and retrieval of its technical specifications. The building blocks and structure of the CMIP6 Data Request (DREQ), which have been constructed to meet these challenges, are described in this paper.
Diatoms are unicellular or chain-forming phytoplankton that use silicon (Si) in cell wall construction. Their survival during periods of apparent nutrient exhaustion enhances carbon sequestration in ...frontal regions of the northern North Atlantic. These regions may therefore have a more important role in the 'biological pump' than they have previously been attributed, but how this is achieved is unknown. Diatom growth depends on silicate availability, in addition to nitrate and phosphate, but northern Atlantic waters are richer in nitrate than silicate. Following the spring stratification, diatoms are the first phytoplankton to bloom. Once silicate is exhausted, diatom blooms subside in a major export event. Here we show that, with nitrate still available for new production, the diatom bloom is prolonged where there is a periodic supply of new silicate: specifically, diatoms thrive by 'mining' deep-water silicate brought to the surface by an unstable ocean front. The mechanism we present here is not limited to silicate fertilization; similar mechanisms could support nitrate-, phosphate- or iron-limited frontal regions in oceans elsewhere.
The steric sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea is estimated from the Medar climatology. Temperature variations cause most of the overall steric sea level change in the upper 400 m. Between ...1960 and the 1990s cooling of the upper waters of the Eastern Mediterranean caused reduction in the steric heights while after 1993 warming caused sea level to rise. The steric sea level changes in the upper waters of the Adriatic and the Aegean Sea are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The comparison between the steric sea levels and coastal tide‐gauges is unsatisfactory. This discrepancy questions both the practice of estimating basin‐wide sea level changes on point measurements and the use of steric height variations as measures of sea level variability in areas less sampled than the Mediterranean. Moreover the diverse behaviour of the Eastern Mediterranean at sub‐basin scales questions the meaningfulness of climatic basin averages.
The dramatic reduction of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will increase human activities in the coming years. This activity will be driven by increased demand for energy and the marine resources of an ...Arctic Ocean accessible to ships. Oil and gas exploration, fisheries, mineral extraction, marine transportation, research and development, tourism, and search and rescue will increase the pressure on the vulnerable Arctic environment. Technologies that allow synoptic in situ observations year-round are needed to monitor and forecast changes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system at daily, seasonal, annual, and decadal scales. These data can inform and enable both sustainable development and enforcement of international Arctic agreements and treaties, while protecting this critical environment. In this paper, we discuss multipurpose acoustic networks, including subsea cable components, in the Arctic. These networks provide communication, power, underwater and under-ice navigation, passive monitoring of ambient sound (ice, seismic, biologic, and anthropogenic), and acoustic remote sensing (tomography and thermometry), supporting and complementing data collection from platforms, moorings, and vehicles. We support the development and implementation of regional to basin-wide acoustic networks as an integral component of a multidisciplinary in situ Arctic Ocean observatory. La diminution remarquable de la glace de mer dans l'océan Arctique aura pour effet d'intensifier l'activité humaine dans cette région au cours des années à venir. Ces activités s'accompagneront d'une demande accrue en ressources marines et en énergie du fait que l'océan Arctique sera accessible aux bateaux. L'exploration pétrolière et gazière, la pêche, l'extraction minière, le transport maritime, la recherche et le développement, le tourisme et les activités de recherche et sauvetage mettront davantage de pression sur l'environnement vulnérable de l'Arctique. Il y a lieu de se doter de technologies qui permettront de faire des observations sur place à l'année afin de surveiller et de prévoir les changements caractérisant le système atmosphère-glace-océan de l'Arctique à l'échelle quotidienne, saisonnière, annuelle et décennale. Ces données seront utiles tant pour le développement durable que pour l'application des accords et traités internationaux relativement à l'Arctique, et elles permettront de protéger cet environnement critique. Dans cet article, nous discutons des réseaux acoustiques à vocations multiples de l'Arctique, notamment l'aspect des câbles sous-marins. Ces réseaux permettent les communications, le transport de l'énergie, la navigation sous-marine et sous les glaces, la surveillance passive du son ambiant (glace, bruits sismiques, biologiques et anthropiques), la détection acoustique à distance (tomographie et thermométrie) de même que le soutien et le complément aux données recueillies à partir des plateformes, des amarres et des véhicules. Nous sommes pour l'aménagement et l'utilisation de réseaux acoustiques régionaux à la grandeur du bassin comme composante intégrante d'un observatoire multidisciplinaire sur place dans l'océan Arctique.
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